elections

More than 200 elected members of the European, Spanish and Catalan Parliaments and municipal councils from Catalonia have presented and started to sign on Wednesday an international complaint against the Spanish Government that will be sent to the United Nations, the European Parliament, the European Commission, the Council of Europe and Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). They are formally accusing the Spanish Government of "violating the right of the Catalan people to decide on its own political future" and "banning the exercise of democracy ". They list reasons of democratic legitimacy, stress the sustained self-determination demands and highlight the manifold Catalan attempts to negotiate and hold a legal vote. They also emphasise the Spanish Government's total blocking attitude and they announce that Catalan representatives "feel legitimate to launch all the necessary political and legal actions". Finally, they also ask those international organisations to act in order "to guarantee that Catalonia's citizenry can democratically decide on its future".

On Tuesday, Spain’s Constitutional Court accepted to take into consideration the Spanish Government’s appeal against Catalonia’s participatory process about independence, which has been organised by the Catalan Executive as an alternative to the original consultation vote that was banned by the Spanish authorities five weeks ago. The Constitutional Court has unanimously accepted the Spanish Prime Minister’s new appeal, which brings the automatic and temporary suspension of the object appealed against until a definitive decision is reached. However, the Catalan Government emphasised that the participatory process is still in place, since it is different to the original consultation vote. In addition, it will file a complaint to the Supreme Court against the Spanish Government for not respecting Catalans’ basic rights and freedoms.

On Friday, the Swiss bank UBS issued a certificate stating that Xavier Trias, Mayor of Barcelona, does not and has never had any account with them, contradicting the accusations launched at him by Spanish nationalist newspaper 'El Mundo' on Monday which mentioned sources from the Spanish Home Affairs Ministry. Trias, who supports Catalan independence from Spain, strongly rejected the accusations of having €12.9 million in a secret bank account in Switzerland on the very first day they were published and he cautioned against dirty tricks from the Spanish Government. In addition, the Mayor also announced a judicial complaint against the newspaper and he said he would ask for such a certificate. On Tuesday, 'El Mundo' insisted on the accusations and it even published the UBS bank account number on its front page, while Trias filed the judicial complaint. Now, after UBS guaranteed that he has never had and does not have a bank account with them, Trias is asking for the resignation of the Spanish Home Affair Minister.

According to a poll by the Centre of Opinion Studies (CEO), run by the Catalan Government, 49.4% of Catalans would vote "yes" to both parts of the question "Do you want Catalonia to become a State? If yes, do you want to become an independent State?" In addition, 12.6% would vote "yes" to the first part and "no" to the second, meaning they would back a Catalan State within a federal or confederated Spain. Finally, 19.7% would vote "no", meaning they back the current 'status quo' or they want recentralisation. Therefore, 32.3% of citizens would be against independence. However, such a poll cannot be used to predict results for November 9's alternative consultation vote, stated the CEO, since the census is not the same and many people from the "no" side are expected not to vote in the alternative participatory process.

While the alternative consultation vote on independence scheduled on the 9^th of November approaches, the Catalan Government has additional priorities on its plate, starting with the approval of its budget for 2015. However, right now the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU does not have enough parliamentary support to approve it. Its parliamentary ally, the left-wing independence party ERC, is reluctant to back the new budget after the Catalan Government cancelled the original consultation vote. The ERC wants to start preparing the first budget of an independent state and on Tuesday it offered to extend the 2014 budget. However, the Catalan President, Artur Mas, announced on Wednesday he will bring the budget proposal to the Parliament anyway. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) offered itself as an ally, but Mas asked them to back the alternative consultation vote. The PSC replied that if the question is changed, "we can talk about everything".

The President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State CiU, Artur Mas, and the President of the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, met on Wednesday, after days of tensions among the parties supporting self-determination. The tensions have been mainly about how to raise the legal profile of the alternative participatory process scheduled on the 9^th of November, which replaces the original consultation vote, and about a common platform to run in early elections transformed into a 'de facto' referendum on independence. According to Junqueras, the two leaders decided to work on making sure that the alternative consultation vote is "a success". In addition, he said that Mas had requested that he leave the debate about the early elections for the days after the 9^th of November's vote, despite Junqueras insisting on an immediate electoral call.

938 of the 947 existing municipalities in Catalonia will host polling stations for the alternative consultation vote on independence scheduled for the 9^th of November, which replaces the original non-binding referendum. According to the Catalan Government, this represents 99.9% of Catalans being able to vote in their own neighbourhood, town or village, without having to go to a nearby municipality. The Catalan Government will be using its own venues to host the polling stations (mainly high-schools), but it lacks them in small towns. For this reason it requested that town halls cooperate and make municipal venues available for voting. 4 additional municipalities could be added to the final list. In addition, civil societies and parties will be able to campaign in 305 Catalan Government's venues between the 30^th of October and the 8^th of November.

The international rating agency Moody’s analyses the current political situation in Catalonia regarding the alternative consultation vote scheduled for the 9^th of November and the potential early elections. Moody’s considers that early Catalan Parliament elections are the most likely scenario, emphasising the Catalan Government’s commitment to respect the legal framework. In addition, it also considers “a common platform” with which pro-independence parties would run in the elections to be the most likely outcome. On top of this, Moody’s predicts the victory of such a common platform and that Catalonia would be in a “strong” position to negotiate a better fiscal deal within the current Constitution. However, in such scenario, Moody’s does not consider independence. In this vein, Catalonia’s credit rating is likely to improve while Spain’s would worsen.

The Catalan National Assembly (ANC) and Òmnium Cultural, which are the civil society associations that organised the massive pro-independence demonstrations in 2012, 2013 and 2014, have given their support to the alternative consultation vote proposed by the Catalan Government but on the condition of early elections taking place within the next three months. On Sunday, the ANC and Òmnium gathered 110,000 people (according to Barcelona local police) in Catalunya Square, three times more than the pro-Spanish-unity demonstration that took place in the same place a week earlier. In front of a pro-independence crowd, the two civil society organisations demanded unity of action from the parties supporting self-determination. They called for "a massive mobilisation" in the alternative participatory process of the 9^th of November, being "the first round" of the early elections, which should become a 'de facto' referendum on independence.

After the cancellation of the original consultation vote scheduled for the 9^th of November, parties are preparing for hypothetical early elections, transformed into a de facto referendum on independence. The parliamentary stability alliance between the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU and the opposition left-wing Catalan independence party ERC is seriously damaged. This affects the approval of the Catalan Government's budget for 2015 and a potential electoral alliance in such a plebiscite on independence. CiU, formed by the Liberal CDC and the Christian-Democrat UDC, and social-democrat ERC were the three main parties within the pact for the consultation vote scheduled. As preparations for the 9^th of November would have required breaking Spanish law, tensions between them were raised. After the pact was broken, there have been efforts to work together again on different fronts, while UDC is looking for new allies.

The Catalan Government is gradually disclosing details and starting preparations for the alternative consultation process on independence that will take place on the 9^th of November, which replaces the consultation vote also scheduled on that day. Meanwhile, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, celebrates "the excellent news" about the Catalan Government abandoning the previous consultation vote, which had been temporarily suspended by the Constitutional Court. The Spanish Government and the People's Party (PP), chaired by Rajoy, would not want to raise the profile of the minor new vote by acting strongly against it. It seems they are hesitating whether to appeal against it or to tolerate it, in spite of Catalans still being called to cast a ballot about independence from Spain in a non-binding participatory process.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, ruled out the consultation vote already called for the 9^th of November and agreed upon among a majority of Catalan parties, in face of the opposition from the Spanish authorities. However, he announced an alternative "participatory process" on that same day, in which 20,000 volunteers throughout Catalonia will run the polling stations, located in Catalan Government venues, and people would register just before voting. Mas believes that this new vote does not openly challenge the Spanish authorities' ban, while it is an alternative way to vote on the 9^th of November, as promised. However, he also admitted that such a process is not comparable to a proper referendum and stated that "the definitive referendum" would be early Catalan Parliament elections, where parties would transform it into a plebiscite on independence. The first reactions have been sceptical, both in Barcelona and Madrid.

Parties supporting the self-determination vote scheduled for the 9^th of November have met on Monday in Barcelona to discuss whether to carry on the consultation vote as is currently planned or to launch an alternative, in view of the total opposition from the Spanish authorities. According to two parties present at the meeting, the Catalan Government has ruled out the organisation of the consultation as it has been proposed by the decree that has been temporarily suspended by the Constitutional Court. Instead, the Catalan Government has proposed organising a “participatory process” on the same day, using the legislation that has not been suspended by the Spanish authorities. This alternative will be disclosed on Tuesday morning by the Catalan President, Artur Mas. The Spanish Government has already said it will also appeal against such an alternative. The left-wing Catalan independence party ERC has announced it will not back such an alternative and proposes a unilateral declaration of independence.

Both the Catalan Government and the main pro-independence civil society organisation ANC are rejecting the possibility to organise an alternative self-determination vote on the 9^thof November if the official one, which has already been called, cannot take place. Furthermore, the ANC's President would back the organisation of early plebiscitary elections if the Spanish authorities were to totally block the current self-determination consultation vote and therefore impede a process with full democratic guarantees, as reported by Bloomberg on Wednesday. Besides, on the same day, the Catalan Government denied that it is considering organising an alternative consultation vote on the 9^th of November if the current call cannot not take place. Their denial comes after press speculations pointing in to this direction, published in the last few hours.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, has organised a meeting with the parties supporting the 9^th of November's consultation vote on independence in order to agree the next steps to be followed after the Constitutional Court's temporary suspension. They have agreed to keep the 9^th of November's call but, at the close of this edition on Friday evening, they had debating during the whole day on how to guarantee a legal and democratic vote. The meeting was supposed to end at lunchtime, but it has carried on until the evening and participants do not rule out the possibility of continuing discussions over the weekend. A wide range of political parties, representing 65% of the Catalan Parliament (ranging from the Christian-Democrats to the Alternative Left), have to decide whether the 9^th of November's call will be kept until the end or if they will call for early elections within a few days, with or without the possibility of forming a national unity government.