elections

By 6 pm (CET time), two hours before the electoral polls close, 44.58% of Catalans had already voted, 6 percentage point higher than the 38.24% registered at the same time in 2011. However, in Barcelona, the turnout is much higher, reaching 46.37% (while four years ago it was 38.21%). This 8 percentage point difference is due to the political battle taking place in the Catalan capital, where the alternative left coalition Barcelona en Comú has a chance of winning the elections ahead of the incumbent Mayor and candidate for the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Xavier Trias. Left-wing voters are likely to have flocked to the electoral polls with the hope of displacing Trias, while many other voters are also likely to have gone to the electoral polls in great numbers to stop the alternative left candidate and former social activist Ada Colau from winning the elections. Election day has gone off without incident but with uncertain political horizons.

Catalans are holding their municipal elections on Sunday, while the elections to the Catalan Parliament are to be held in September, as opposed to other parts of Spain, where they are voting for their regional parliaments on Sunday. These municipal elections come after 7 years of economic crisis and also with very uncertain political horizons. Two debates have dominated the campaign: Catalonia’s independence and the rise of new or secondary parties that promise to change the current model. For many people in Catalonia, Sunday’s elections will be a first stage of the ‘de facto’ plebiscite on independence that is going to take place with the Catalan elections on 27 September. It is also the opportunity to support changing the current political, economic and social model, with the rise of alternative left coalitions. Furthermore, majorities and town halls go through significant changes, particularly in Barcelona and the cities of its Metropolitan Area, where there are no clear winners forecast and surprises are likely to happen.

The Association of Municipalities for Independence (AMI) has requested Catalan mayors to fly Danish flags in municipal buildings as a way of complying with the ban on pro-independence flags during the electoral campaign and as sign of gratitude to this country, which on Tuesday approved a motion in favour of “a democratic and pacific dialogue” between Spain and Catalonia regarding Catalonia self-determination. The initiative comes from Sant Pol de Mar, a coastal town in the Maresme County (about 50 km north of Barcelona). On Thursday, the municipal Painting Museum next to the town hall flew the Danish flag. The AMI has also requested mayors to hang again pro-independence flags this Sunday just after the polling stations close, which will respect the ban from the main Electoral Authority in Spain (Junta Electoral Central) that ordered the removal of all Catalan pro-independence flags from all "public buildings and polling stations" during the electoral campaign and voting period.

Jordi Sánchez, the new President of the civil society organisation Catalan National Assembly (ANC), which co-organised the massive pro-independence rallies, has ruled out the possibility of unilaterally declaring independence the day after the next Catalan Parliament elections, should a clear majority of pro-independence parties win. These elections are presented by the Catalan Government and by the parties supporting independence as a ‘de facto’ plebiscite on this issue, since it is the only option left to hold a legal self-determination vote after the unilateral veto and no-to-everything attitude of the Spanish Government during the last two-and-a-half years. However, even though Sánchez completely supports such a plebiscite, he stated that a unilateral declaration of independence on the day after “would not be possible” and “it is not the road to take”. “I will not send signals about things I believe will not happen”, added Sánchez, who on Saturday was elected to lead the ANC.

The main Electoral Authority in Spain (Junta Electoral Central) has ordered on Thursday the removal of all Catalan independence flags from all "public buildings and polling stations" in Catalonia during the electoral campaign for the Municipal Elections, which take place on 24 May. The order comes after a request from the main pro-Spanish unity civil society group, Societat Civil Catalana (SCC). According to SCC, there are pro-independence flags located in public spaces in 323 municipalities throughout Catalonia and this "violates political neutrality" during the electoral campaign. 710 of the 947 existing town councils in Catalonia have democratically voted to support independence and join the Municipalities for Independence Association (AMI). Many of them have flown pro-independence flags from town hall balconies or in public spaces.

The campaign for the municipal elections in Catalonia, which are to be held on 24May, officially started this Friday in extremely uncertain circumstances after years of economic crisis, budget cuts and corruption scandals. This has seriously damaged the credibility of the main traditional parties, provoking an increase in popularity of alternative groups and a great number of undecided voters. On top of this, there is the political clash regarding Catalonia's potential independence from Spain and the planned early elections for the Catalan Parliament on 27 September, which are expected to become a 'de facto' independence plebiscite. The Municipal Elections come first and they have been presented as a preliminary vote before that in September. Additionally, alternative parties will have to prove whether they are as strong as the polls suggest and are able to be part of local government. In this uncertain scenario, the battle for Barcelona stands out, where polls predict great changes.

Spain is home to around 300,000 registered British nationals, 20,000 of whom reside in Catalonia and retain the right to vote in the forthcoming general elections in the UK on the 7^th of May, according to date from the Spanish Statistics Institute given in 2014. The election this year is especially important as polls suggest that no combination of parties will win a stable majority which could be the end of the road for a strong government. Moreover, the election is more important than usual for British nationals living in Spain as in the rest of Europe as Cameron has promised that a Conservative victory will renegotiate Britain’s relations with the EU and put the result to an in/out referendum on membership by the end of 2017. A British exit from Europe could potentially lead to British nationals abroad facing several difficulties in regards to freedom of movement across Europe. On the other hand, May 7th could also mark the point of no return for the troubled union between England and Scotland, due to a surge in support for the secessionist Scottish National Party (SNP).

Ciutadans (C’s), the anti-Catalan nationalism party that could become Spain’s third-largest party according to many polls, stated on Monday that they will do everything in their power to stop the next massive pro-independence demonstration in Barcelona from happening. Since 2012, every 11^th of September (which is Catalonia’s National Day), the main pro-independence civil society associations have organised a massive rally, such as the 400 km-long human chain spanning Catalonia from north to south in 2013 and the V-shaped demonstration occupying more than 11 km of Barcelona’s two main avenues in 2014. More than 1.5 million people participated in each of the demonstrations, which have always been peaceful and cheerful, claiming Catalonia’s right to self-determination. This year, another massive demonstration is planned, which is to occupy all of Meridiana Avenue, symbolically going from the Catalan Parliament to outside the city.

"We have to fight the same evils as the Enlightenment: obscurantism, fanaticism and tyranny", stated Consuelo Madrigal, the Director of Spain's Public Prosecution office – directly appointed by the Spanish Government – when  referring to Catalonia's self-determination process on Thursday in Madrid. Madrigal also added that the Spanish institutions and "the rule of law" have also to fight against the "deviations and errors" of the Catalan self-determination process. However, despite these strong words, she nuanced her statement by stressing something which should be obvious in any democratic country: she "will not prosecute intentions" such as the road map that pro-independence parties have agreed upon. Madrigal also referred to the prosecution launched against the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, for the symbolic consultation vote on independence held on 9 November last.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, has not ruled out the possibility of holding the Spanish General Elections – which should normally be held in late November or early December – at the same time as the Catalan Elections, which are to take place on 27 September. The Catalan Elections are to be transformed into a 'de facto' plebiscite on independence and have been called a year early, as the only option left in order to hold a self-determination vote, after Rajoy's total opposition to any such vote and his failing to even talk about it. During the last few weeks, the possibility of Rajoy calling the Spanish Elections early in order to ensure that they coincide with the Catalan vote (with the aim of partially neutralising the plebiscite effect) has been widely discussed. However, Rajoy also said that he would like to hold them "at the end of the year".

The Catalan Government President and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas, complained on Wednesday that his ally, the left-wing pro-independence party ERC, is not fully honouring their agreement to call elections on 27 September, which should become a 'de facto' vote on independence. According to Mas, the ERC is not offering its full parliamentary support to the Government. "There is an agreement signed in January, and it is also an agreement that talks about stability until elections are called" and "some [parliamentary] votes are being lost, which harm such a stability agreement", he said. Furthermore, he stated that elections will be "expectedly" held on 27 September and did not rule out the option of running in a cross-party list yet. The leader of the left-wing party, Oriol Junqueras, replied that the ERC is honouring the agreement and that Catalans will vote on 27 September.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, is on a visit to the United States to talk with think tanks, investors and media. Mas held a conference at Columbia University on Wednesday evening in which he stressed the democratic principle as the driving force of the independence movement. He praised the American Constitution's "We, the people" to emphasise that "we will vote in September", in elections transformed into a 'de facto' vote on independence. Besides this, Mas also held an interview with 'Bloomberg', saying he hoped that "the biggest" European Union countries will convince Spanish Prime Minister to negotiate a split if Catalans voted for independence. He has also penned an article in the 'Irish Times', stressing that no "decision taken by the Spanish political sphere will break the will of the Catalan people to freely and democratically decide their political future".

The coalition will be led by the social activist Ada Colau, former spokeswoman of the Platform for People Affected by Mortgages (PAH), a Spanish grassroots organisation that helped citizens to stop evictions, promoted housing rights and in 2013 was awarded the European’s Citizens Prize. The local left-wing front will be mainly formed by the Catalan Green Socialist and post-Communist coalition ICV-EUiA and several parties campaigning for a re-launching of democracy, such as the Socialist and pro-Catalan independence Procés Constituent and the Spanish far-left party aimed at breaking the bipartisan political model Podemos. However, the main Catalan pro-independence far-left party CUP is working on a separate candidature for the same local elections that will take place on the 24^th of May.  

The political parties and the main civil society organisations that support Catalonia's independence from Spain have agreed that the Catalan Parliament will issue a formal declaration to start building a new state and launch a constituent process, which would be put to a citizen vote at a later stage, if they obtain a parliamentary majority in the September elections. They have been holding a series of talks over the past few weeks in order to agree on a road map that sets out the steps to follow in case pro-independence parties obtain an absolute majority in the next Catalan Parliament elections. These elections have been called early and are being presented as a 'de facto' referendum on independence by the parties supporting this option, since they are the only way to hold a legal vote on this issue after years of the Spanish Government's unilateral blocking attitude.

The support for independence is at its lowest ebb of the last two years according to the latest survey from the Catalan Government’s Survey Institute (CEO), published on Friday. 48% of Catalan citizens are against independence from Spain, while 44.1% are in favour of it. The figures confirm the trend observed in the last CEO survey released in December, when the percentage of those opposing independence (45.3%) overtook those in favour (44.5%) for the first time since 2012. During the last months there have been significant quarrels among the pro-independence parties and there was already the general feeling that the movement was losing supports. This also coincides with a greater mobilisation of the 'no' side, which has focused on spreading doubt and uncertainty about the independence project, and the appearance of new parties at Spanish level that are promising to carry out great changes in the democratic and economic systems.