elections

A Professor at the prestigious Paris Institute of Political Studies (Science Po), Jean-Bernard Auby, has advocated for a temporary solution to keep Catalonia within the European Union if it reaches independence from Spain. This agreement should guarantee that Catalonia will not be excluded from the EU even if it does not immediately become a full-member. During a conference in Sciences Po Toulouse organised alongside the Public Diplomacy Council of Catalonia (Diplocat), Auby insisted that “Catalonia and the Catalans are part of the EU” and for this reason, if they become independent “one shouldn’t, in a mechanical way, impose on them to go through the procedures we impose on those who are complete outsiders”. The conference ‘The right to self-determination of Catalonia. Legality and democratic legitimacy’ is part of a series of debates on the right to self-determination, organised by the Diplocat and scheduled in prestigious universities throughout Europe.

Alejo Vidal-Quadras, Vice-president of the European Parliament and famous for his strong Spanish nationalist stances, has quitted the People’s Party (PP) after 30 years of membership. Vidal-Quadras has joined the newly-created VOX party, a populist ultra-nationalist force defending a total recentralisation of Spain. The Europarliament’s VP criticises the Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy’s “diagnosis” and “solutions” for the “economic, institutional, moral and national unity” crisis the country is going through. However, after 15 years of being Euro MP for the PP, a few weeks ago it was revealed that the party did not want him on the list for the next European elections. Vidal-Quadras might lead VOX in the next electoral race.

The Secretary General of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE), Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, sent a letter to the President of the Spanish Parliament, Jesús Posada, asking him to create “a parliamentary body to talk about the renovation of the territorial model”. This was one of the conclusions of last week’s meeting between Rubalcaba and the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), which is part of the PSOE. The final objective is to push for a broad Constitutional reform to create a true federal Spain and better fit Catalonia, providing an alternative from the current status quo or independence. However, the initiative faces a negative answer from the People’s Party (PP), which runs the Spanish Government and holds an absolute majority in the Parliament and Senate.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, stated that he wants to meet with the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, in order to convince him “to allow or tolerate” Catalonia’s self-determination vote. In the yearly live interview at the Catalan Public Television Broadcaster (TV3), Mas challenged Rajoy to make “an attractive offer” to the Catalan people, instead of “saying ‘no’ to everything”. Mas proposed that Catalan citizens vote on the Spanish authorities’ offer and on the independence option. Furthermore, the Catalan President insisted he is willing to change the question wording and dateof the self-determination vote if the Spanish Government agrees on a formulation similar to the Scottish referendum.

The parties supporting Catalonia’s right to self-determination regret the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC)’s decision to step down from giving active support to this political process. Last week the PSC’s leadership decided not to back any initiative in favour of a self-determination vote that has not been agreed in advance with the Spanish Government, which totally rejects the idea and even refuses to talk about it. The President of the Catalan Government and leader of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), Artur Mas, asked the PSC “not to get off the train”, stressing the party’s tradition of defending Catalan language, culture, identity and self-government. The Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) and the Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA) consider the PSC is now against a self-determination vote.

The Parliament of Catalonia rejected a proposal to call for a “unilateral” self-determination referendum in the event that the Spanish State “blocked” the possibility of organising a vote by agreement. The motion was rejected with the votes of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – which runs the Catalan Government – and the three parties defending the unity of Spain: the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), the People’s Party (PP) – which runs the Spanish Government, and the anti-Catalan nationalism and populist party Ciutadans (C’s). The motion supporting the idea of calling for a self-determination referendum in “a unilateral way” had been presented by the radical left-wing and independence party CUP, which has only 3 MPs in the 135-seat chamber. However it was also backed by the second-largest group, the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) and some of the MPs from the Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA).

The Spanish PM, Mariano Rajoy, considered that “to reform the Constitution in order to satisfy those who will not be satisfied”, referring to the citizens supporting Catalonia’s independence from Spain, who represent more than 50% of Catalans according to polls, would be “a great mistake”. Answering a question from the former Catalan President José Montilla, Rajoy stated before the Senate that “Spain and national sovereignty are not negotiable”. However, despite these red lines, Rajoy affirmed that his attitude towards Catalonia is “to talk” in order to find a negotiated way out. More than 80% of Catalans would like to hold a self-determination vote in Catalonia.

The President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, visited Barcelona on Thursday and met with the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, and the Secretary General of the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), Pere Navarro. Schulz, who is the Social-Democrat candidate in the next European Elections for the President of the European Commission, acknowledged that he talked about Catalonia’s self-determination process with Mas and Navarro. However, the German politician refused to take sides, saying he has “no solution” to offer and that “the problem” has to be solved between Catalonia and Spain, not at European level. Furthermore, he insisted that Catalonia’s independence should not be the issue in the next European elections. “I want to talk about youth unemployment”, he stressed.

Hannes Swoboda, Chairman of the Social-Democrat Group at the European Parliament, highlighted “the necessity to stick together, to solve the problems together in Spain”. The Austrian politician rejected what he sees as the Catalan attitude: “we are richer and we are leaving Spain”. “That is not a solution for the Spanish and European problems” he warned. In addition, he stated that Catalans “have to know” that “if they go independent without the agreement of the national government they are no longer in the European Union”. The veteran MEP asked Catalans to be “realistic” and “to fight for the improvement of living conditions and not for the destruction of what we have achieved over the last decades”.

In the last few days, there has been an attempt to build bridges between Catalonia and Spain, despite the visible increase of tension between the two governments. In public the Catalan and Spanish Executives are heading for a collision but at the same time discreet manoeuvres explore alternative ways out. This Tuesday, the ‘number 2’ of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – which runs the Catalan Government – Josep Antoni Duran I Lleida acknowledged that he met with the Spanish Prime Minister and leader of the People’s Party (PP) Mariano Rajoy on the 16^th October. Besides, the Catalan President, Artur Mas, met on Friday with the Secretary General of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) to talk about a constitutional change. Today, the Spokesperson of the Catalan Government, Francesc Homs, stated that Catalonia is waiting for an offer from the Spanish establishment. Although “there is no deadline” for this offer, the self-determination process will not be waiting for it, although if it arrives it will be studied.

Graham Watson, one of the leaders of Liberal Group at the European Parliament emphasised that “the EU has to be a sufficiently strong but sufficiently flexible entity to allow people to express themselves within it”. This “may mean some changes to boundaries; but we are democrats and if that is what the majority wants then that is what must happen” added the leader of the third largest group at the Strasbourg Parliament. According to Watson, the debate about Catalonia or Scotland’s possible independence “is a very important issue for the European Union”. The British politician sent a clear message to Spain: “This is not a period of kings and nation-states, it’s a period of people working together through their democratically-expressed will and that should be as clear to a Castilian as to anyone else”.

Cadena Ser, Spain’s main radio station, has published an opinion poll on Catalonia’s National Day which points out that 52.3% of Catalans would vote “yes” in an independence referendum, while 24.1% would vote against it. It also reveals that 80.5% of Catalans want to hold a self-determination referendum. Furthermore, 59.7% of Catalans would still cast their vote even if the referendum was declared illegal. The opinion poll also indicates that 46.8% of Catalans would continue to support independence even if the Spanish Government agreed to grant Catalonia a fiscal scheme similar to that of the Basque Country, guaranteeing more financial resources. In this hypothesis, 27% would be against independence. Finally, the poll also indicated that, if elections were to be held in Catalonia, the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) would win with 22.1% of the votes, while the current governing Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) would come second with 20.7%.

This Thursday, Catalan President, Artur Mas, said he would call a “plebiscite” style election in 2016 if the Spanish government does not allow Catalonia to carry out a referendum on independence next year. In an interview with Catalan radio, Mas rejected calling early elections even if Madrid refuses his proposal for a referendum. Instead, he would ask Catalans to vote in the 2016 election considering which parties are in favour or against independence, thus showing the overall support for the creation of a new Catalan state.

This coming 11^th of September – which is Catalonia’s National Day – pro-independence supporters have organised a gigantic human chain called the ‘Catalan Way Towards Independence’ that will cross Catalonia from North to South stretching 400 km and passing through some of the main cities, such as Barcelona, Girona and Tarragona. After having organised the 1.5 million-strong demonstration of 2012, the civil society platform Catalan National Assembly is preparing a new massive demonstration that calls for independence from Spain. This year’s peculiar demonstration is inspired by the ‘Baltic Way’ of 1989, which gathered 2 million people forming a 670 km-long human chain crossing Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The ‘Baltic Way’ was organised exactly 24 years ago and issued a manifesto that read “a common European home can only by set up if all European nations are granted a free right to self-determination”.

According to an opinion poll from the Catalan Polling Centre (CEO), the Catalan political landscape would change, since the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) would would become the largest force in the Catalan Parliament after doubling the number of its MPs compared to the electoral results from last November. Meanwhile, the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), which has been running the Catalan Government since 2010, would continue to lose support. However, parties supporting Catalonia’s independence increase their total support while the number of those defending Spain’s unity drops. The CEO thinks the data show that over the last 9 months, the support for independence remains “stable” in a hypothetical referendum, ranging between 54% and 57%. However, those opposing independence grew from 20.7% to 23.4%, while the number of undecided citizens decreased to 15%.