elections

“In exceptional times, exceptional decisions are needed”, stated the Catalan President, Artur Mas. After the 1.5 million strong independence demonstration on September 11th, the Spanish PM’s refusal to negotiate a fiscal agreement for Catalonia, and days of speculation, Mas called for elections. He announced the decision in the Catalan Parliament’s main annual debate, in which he stated that budget cuts will continue, although “austerity cannot be the only value”. He also accused the Spanish Government of being “disloyal” and imposing stricter deficit targets on the Autonomous Communities. Catalan nationalist parties are celebrating the call for elections for giving the people a say, while the rest accuse Mas of putting his party’s interest first by deviating attention away from the dramatic economic situation.

The Catalan President states that, “if the Constitution is always interpreted from a centralist point of view”, “Catalonia will have to quietly and democratically reflect on its own future” as “no legal framework can be eternally used to annul the majority, democratic, and peaceful will of a people”. The Catalan President, Artur Mas, and the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, met in Madrid 9 days after the 1.5 million strong demonstration for Catalonia’s independence. Rajoy categorically refused to negotiate a specific fiscal agreement between Catalonia and Spain because he said it does not fit into the Constitution. No one from the Spanish Government addressed the press after the meeting.

Last Sunday Socialist candidate François Hollande won the French presidential elections. After 17 years of conservative government the French voted for change including the French community of Catalonia, which had the possibility to express itself in 19 polling stations set up all around Catalonia. Between the first round of voting -two weeks ago- and the second round, the rate of electoral participation in Catalonia increased from 37,5% to 42%. The Franco-Catalan community came out strongly in favour of the Socialist candidate, with 52.79 % for Hollande as against the figure of 42.21% who voted for Sarkozy.

The conservative People’s Party (PP) has won the Spanish General Election with an absolute majority. The PP obtained 186 MPs in the 350-seat Spanish Parliament, its best ever result. The Socialist Party (PSOE), who are the current Spanish Government, obtained the worst results in its history, winning just 110 MPs. In Catalonia, another historical change has taken place: the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalists (CiU) have won in the Spanish elections for the first time. The Socialists lose 44% of their MPs in Catalonia, and their main candidate Carme Chacón, is in a bad position to lead the PSOE after Zapatero. The PP continues as Catalonia’s third party, despite an improvement in its results.

Catalonia is the only autonomous community where the Socialist Party has clearly won, but has lost around 35% of its MPs, according to the exit poll released by TV3. The People’s Party (PP) will remain Catalonia’s third biggest force, behind the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalists (CiU), who will increase their share by some 40%. The exit polls released at 20.00 CET, when the polls closed, indicate an absolute majority for the PP and an historical defeat for the Socialists throughout Spain. The PP will get between 181 and 185 MPs, when the absolute majority is 176 seats. The election day has been calm, with a lower turnout than in the 2008 elections, particularly in Catalonia.

Catalonia and the Basque Country might be the only Autonomous Communities in Spain without a victory for the People’s Party (PP). The Socialists are likely to win once again in Catalonia, but they risk loosing 40% of their seats. If they slump even further then they risk being overtaken by the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) or even the PP. A quiet electoral campaign has come to an end, with three main unknown answers: if the Socialist party will get its worst results over the past few decades, if they will also lose in their stronghold of Catalonia, and how the international financial markets will react in the coming days.

In Catalonia, the PP would get its best results in history, and could become the second most voted party in the territory, a position disputed with the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU). The Socialist Party, which has won the Spanish elections in Catalonia for the last 32 years, might still win, but it will be a close battle with the CiU and the PP. A major surprise in Catalonia cannot be completely ruled out. In any case, on the contrary to previous elections and as it seemed some weeks ago, votes in Catalonia might not change the final results and the PP’s absolute majority would not depend on its Catalan supports.

Next November 20th, Spaniards will vote for the new Spanish Parliament. They will elect one of the lists running in their province, which is their constituency. Catalans will thus elect the lists running in the four Catalan provinces. Therefore, they will not directly elect Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba (PSOE) or Mariano Rajoy (PP), but their party candidates in Catalonia, as well as parties only running in Catalonia, such as the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) or the Catalan Green Socialist Coalition (ICV-EUiA).

According to polls, Catalonia might be essential to ensure the absolute majority to the People’s Party (PP) or to save the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) from getting its worst results ever. The Socialists risk loosing more than a third of its seats in Catalonia while the PP, far from winning in Catalonia, could get its best results. Catalan nationalists ‘Convergència i Unió’, who are the third largest group in the Spanish Parliament, could win the elections in Catalonia, ending the ten Socialist Party victories in a row in these elections.

Catalonia has a different political landscape than the rest of Spain, and it is where the People’s Party (PP) always gets its worst results. Polls indicate that in the next Spanish elections, the People’s Party will be very far from winning in Catalonia but it could get its best results winning between 12 and 14 seats. Looking to ensure an absolute majority in Spain, the PP’s leader Mariano Rajoy plans to better the party’s results in Catalonia and therefore decided to start the official campaign in a town from Barcelona Metropolitan Area.

In addition, he warned about an ongoing re-centralisation process, going against the consensus of 1978, and whose next step “will be the electoral reform”, which “will sentence us [Catalan nationalists] as galley slaves”. The day that King Juan Carlos was ratifying with his signature the amendment to the Spanish Constitution, one of the main law’s six founding fathers criticised the reform. Miquel Roca, who represented the views of the Catalan nationalists in 1978 criticised a reform approved only with the support of the two main parties in Spain, both defending centralist stances.

Many in Catalonia fear that a constitutional limitation to public deficit and debt may dramatically reduce Catalonia’s already restricted fiscal autonomy, which would not only affect self-governance but also the possibility to pay for investments or public services not guaranteed by the Spanish State. The fear goes beyond Catalan party boundaries regarding the second amendment to the Spanish Constitution, which would be approved through an “urgent procedure”, almost without public and political debate. Catalan senators could force a call for a binding referendum.

The conservative leader, Mariano Rajoy, says the new government will have a “very difficult task because Spain has many problems”. Catalan nationalist Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida argues that Zapatero’s decision will bring “stability” to the economy.

Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero announces that Spaniards will go to polls four months earlier than scheduled. The Spanish Parliament will be dissolved on September 26. The election will be a contest between former Interior Minister Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba and conservative Mariano Rajoy

The good results at the municipal elections give the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition ‘Convergència i Unió’ (CiU), running the Government, the support of citizens to carry on with the austerity measures and its plan to reduce public expenditure by 10%. After the Government’s approval, the budget will be discussed at the Catalan Parliament and approved by the end of July. CiU does not want to mix budget negotiations at the Parliament with local agreements after the municipal elections.