Politics

International experts have participated in a day of debate over the hypothetical scenarios and the possible consequences regarding membership or expulsion from the European Union of an independent Catalonia. The panellists ruled out automatic expulsion, as well as automatic membership, in any scenario. Graham Avery, Senior Adviser of the Brussels-based think tank European Policy Centre (EPC), underlined that "the most important" element in deciding what would happen to an independent Catalonia would be "the process" through which it achieves this independence. If it was carried out with the agreement of the Spanish Government, the transition towards full EU membership would be quite fast and smooth. If it was done unilaterally, then a wide range of scenarios are possible, with risks and costs rising. However, a majority of experts have stated that even in the worst case scenario, the costs would not be as high as the Spanish Government is saying. In addition, they affirmed that the EU is likely to adopt a pragmatic approach and that a transition regime is likely to be set up, with basic policies and freedoms not being interrupted.

Lombardy, Baden-Württemberg, Rhône-Alpes and Catalonia will work together to develop strategies to foster the Information and Communication Technology sector in both their own territories and at European level, in order to make the continent hold a leading position in this sector at world level. This has been the main conclusion of the main event of the current presidency of the Four Motors for Europe, which is a regional association formed in 1988 by the aforementioned 4 territories in order to develop common projects and lobby at European level. Catalonia currently holds the association's rotating presidency and has made the development of the ICT sector its main objective, particularly focusing on smart city and 4.0 technologies. Lombardy, Baden-Württemberg, Rhône-Alpes and Catalonia signed on Wednesday in Barcelona a shared declaration strengthening their commitment in this field.

The leader of the alternative left and green coalition Barcelona en Comú, Ada Colau, has announced that she will attend the massive demonstration for independence scheduled for Catalonia's National Day (11 September). In 2014, the demonstration gathered more than 1.8 million people in Barcelona. Colau won the municipal elections 2 weeks ago and therefore is likely to become the next Mayor of the Catalan capital. Last week, she said she would not join the self-determination road map agreed between the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU and the left-wing independence party ERC because she refuses to reach agreements with the right-wing CiU. Pro-Spanish unity media started to speculate that she did not support Catalonia's self-determination process. This Monday Colau highlighted her commitment to the process and announced her will to contribute "to a constituent process that should allow for real sovereignty", expanding the current process' plurality.

In times of economic crisis, the Mariano Rajoy-led Spanish Government has been making recentralisation a main driver of its political agenda, using the economic recovery as the reason for passing the reforms. An additional step in this direction was taken on Monday with a new regulation forcing Spanish Autonomous Communities to seek permission from the Spanish Ministry of Finance before granting loans and guarantees to private companies located in their territories. From now on, Madrid's permission will be conditional upon the applicant's compliance with deficit targets. The new regulation substantially curbs the Autonomies' powers to shape their industrial policies, following a reform passed in May that modifies both the Organic Law for Financing the Autonomous Communities and the Organic Law on Budgetary Stability and Financial Sustainability.

The Catalan President, Artur Mas, argued that having a separate stand for Catalonia is an “opportunity” to show to the world the country’s “own personality and identity”. This is the first time that Catalonia is not taking part in an International Expo as part of the Spanish pavilion. Mas admitted that the decision was due to the political conflict with Madrid, but added that having a separate space was the “right solution”. Catalonia is present at Expo Milano 2015, with an exhibition entitled ‘Barcelona Capital of Catalonia. Real food for real people’, which promotes the culinary tradition in the country and its capital.

The leadership of the Christian-Democrat party UDC supports Catalonia's self-determination but it is against full independence; it supports the creation of a Catalan State with greater powers than it currently has while remaining within Spain, which should embrace its plurinational nature and become a confederal country. However, an important part of UDC's base does support independence and has been trying to force an open debate and consultation on it within the party, in order to set the official party stance on this issue. Currently, the leadership's vision represents UDC's traditional stance on this issue, but the party does not have an official stance on independence yet. This situation has provoked tensions within the small party but also with their allies for the last three-and-a-half decades, the Liberal party CDC, which is the largest force within the two-party coalition CiU that currently runs the Catalan Government. UDC announced an internal consultation on 14 June to fix the party's definitive stance on this debate. However, the leadership has presented a question that avoids independence; a formulation that has created quite some controversy among UDC members.

Christy Burke says Irish people “understand the position, the views and the feelings of the Catalan people” because they “know what it was like to be treated as second-class citizens”. The Lord Mayor of Dublin, who is an independent councillor but was formerly a member of Sinn Féin, said that Ireland “would assist in whatever way possible” in order to help Catalan leaders achieve “an adequate, decent, independent by self-determination, country to live in”. Burke said this during an interview with ACN after meeting a delegation from the Public Diplomacy Council of Catalonia and the Catalan Government.

Ada Colau, who leads the alternative left and green coalition Barcelona en Comú, is very likely to become the Catalan capital's next Mayor, with there not being enough ground on which to build an alternative majority. Colau won Sunday’s elections by obtaining 11 seats in the 41-seat City Council, just 1 seat more than the incumbent Mayor from the centre-right pro-Catalan State Coalition CiU, Xavier Trias. In the last days, the People's Party – which runs the Spanish Government – and some economic powers have been pressuring for the building of an alternative majority led by Trias. However, the essential parties involved do not support the idea. In order to facilitate her election, Colau has cleared up any doubt surrounding her fully supporting the continuing of the Mobile World Congress, the world's main event of the mobile phone-related industries, which will take place each year in Barcelona until 2018. Colau has validated the offer prepared by Trias' team to extend the organisation of the congress until at least 2023.

The Catalan Government has sent another warning message about its lack of liquidity, which depends on the Spanish Executive’s regular transfers since most taxes are collected by Madrid-based services. The Catalan Minister for the Presidency, Francesc Homs, accused the Spanish Government of "deliberate asphyxia" and asked the rest of the Catalan parties to "pool together" to denounce the situation. According to Homs, such financial asphyxia will affect everything except salaries. All Catalan Government departments will be affected and their payments to service providers will be delayed. The Catalan Finance Minister, Andreu Mas-Colell, already warned about this financial asphyxia on previous occasions. In the coming days, Mas-Colell will meet with the rest of the parties to discuss the situation. However, the Spanish Finance Ministry rejects the accusation and has stated that it has made all the pending transfers.

The most likely future Mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau, has held a press conference the day after election night, in which her alternative left, green and pro-self-determination coalition Barcelona en Comú became the most-voted party in the Catalan capital, obtaining 11 seats, far from the 21-seat absolute majority. Colau stated that she would “start a round of talks” with the other left-wing parties to look for government agreements as of this Monday. She will contact the social-democrat Catalan independence party ERC (5 seats), the Catalan Socialist Party (4 seats) and the radical independence and alternative left-wing party CUP (3 seats). However, she did not rule out the possibility of reaching specific agreements with other parties on some important issues. She also highlighted her commitment to Catalonia’s right to self-determination. In addition, Colau also accused the current Mayor from the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Xavier Trias, of signing last-minute contracts before leaving office.

The municipal elections in Catalonia have resulted in five major highlights. First of all, the overall victory of left-wing parties, in a context of a gradual economic recovery after 7 years of economic crisis, with high unemployment levels, lower salaries and corruption scandals. However, the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU is still the vost voted party throughout Catalonia, but losing support. Secondly, parties clearly supporting Catalonia's self-determination process significantly increase their representation and electoral support, while those opposing Catalonia's self-determination lose both representatives and votes across the board. Thirdly, there has been a major change in the Catalan capital's City Council, with alternative-left and green coalition Barcelona en Comú overtaking the CiU by a close margin, which runs the Catalan Government. Four, except for Barcelona, the governing parties in the main Catalan town halls resist, although almost all of them have their support reduced. Finally, the main traditional parties register significant loss of support while secondary parties improve their results and enter many city councils for the first time. Two parties enter a number of town halls for the first time: anti-Catalan nationalism party Ciutadans (C's) and radical independence and alternative left party CUP.

The alternative left coalition Barcelona en Comú, led by activist Ada Colau, has won the municipal elections in the Catalan capital by a close margin. The green and post-communist coalition has obtained 11 representatives, far from the 21 seat absolute majority, and governing will depend on the forming of a coalition. Colau defined her victory as that of "David against Goliath". She also stressed her commitment to Catalonia's right to self-determination. The centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, which was holding the mayoral office, has gone from 14 to 10 seats. The anti-Catalan nationalism party Ciutadans (C's) will enter the City Council for the first time, having obtained 5 seats. The social-democrat independence party ERC has also obtained 5 seats, 3 more than in 2011. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) has gone from 11 to 4 seats. The People's Party (PP) has gone from 9 to only 3 representatives. The radical independence and alternative left party CUP will also sit on the City Council for the first time, with 3 seats.

There may be a major change in the Catalan capital's City Council according to the exit polls, where the alternative left coalition Barcelona en Comú may have won this Sunday's municipal elections with between 10-12 seats but looks to be far from the 21-seat absolute majority. The centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, which holds the mayoral office, is set to go from 14 to 9-11 seats. Therefore, the exit polls point towards a change in Mayor but the results are not clear enough and it in fact may be a dead heat between the CiU and Barcelona en Comú. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and the People's Party (PP) are forecast to lose many seats, going from 11 and 9 seats respectively to 4 or 5 each. Furthermore, the anti-Catalan nationalism party Ciutadans (C's) looks set to enter the City Council for the first time and obtain also 4 or 5 seats. As well as this, two pro-independence parties would also increase their results, if the exit polls are accurate. The left-wing Catalan independence party ERC could go from 2 to 3/4 seats, while the radical independence and alternative left party CUP may enter the City Council for the first time, with 3 or 4 seats.

By 6 pm (CET time), two hours before the electoral polls close, 44.58% of Catalans had already voted, 6 percentage point higher than the 38.24% registered at the same time in 2011. However, in Barcelona, the turnout is much higher, reaching 46.37% (while four years ago it was 38.21%). This 8 percentage point difference is due to the political battle taking place in the Catalan capital, where the alternative left coalition Barcelona en Comú has a chance of winning the elections ahead of the incumbent Mayor and candidate for the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Xavier Trias. Left-wing voters are likely to have flocked to the electoral polls with the hope of displacing Trias, while many other voters are also likely to have gone to the electoral polls in great numbers to stop the alternative left candidate and former social activist Ada Colau from winning the elections. Election day has gone off without incident but with uncertain political horizons.

Catalans are holding their municipal elections on Sunday, while the elections to the Catalan Parliament are to be held in September, as opposed to other parts of Spain, where they are voting for their regional parliaments on Sunday. These municipal elections come after 7 years of economic crisis and also with very uncertain political horizons. Two debates have dominated the campaign: Catalonia’s independence and the rise of new or secondary parties that promise to change the current model. For many people in Catalonia, Sunday’s elections will be a first stage of the ‘de facto’ plebiscite on independence that is going to take place with the Catalan elections on 27 September. It is also the opportunity to support changing the current political, economic and social model, with the rise of alternative left coalitions. Furthermore, majorities and town halls go through significant changes, particularly in Barcelona and the cities of its Metropolitan Area, where there are no clear winners forecast and surprises are likely to happen.