spain

Catalonia and the Basque Country might be the only Autonomous Communities in Spain without a victory for the People’s Party (PP). The Socialists are likely to win once again in Catalonia, but they risk loosing 40% of their seats. If they slump even further then they risk being overtaken by the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) or even the PP. A quiet electoral campaign has come to an end, with three main unknown answers: if the Socialist party will get its worst results over the past few decades, if they will also lose in their stronghold of Catalonia, and how the international financial markets will react in the coming days.

The Spanish stock exchange celebrated the European Summit’s results by increasing 4.96% in a one day of trading. The main managers of the Spanish banks are convinced they will get the requested core capital with their own resources. In addition, they believe they will need 13.5 billion euros, and not 26.1 once the detailed calculations are made. Spanish financial circles consider the new rules, adopted to counteract French and German banks’ exposition to Greek sovereign debt, do not particularly benefit Spanish banks, which almost do not hold any Greek debt. In addition, as was the case with the stress tests, the criteria to analyse the bank situation ignores Spain’s proposals and imposes those benefiting German banks.

Catalonia would have lost 60,000 residents by the end of 2011, according to the INE. For the first time in decades, Catalonia's population will fall this year. In the next ten years, Spain’s population would decrease by 1.2% if current demographic trends are maintained. At the end of 2010, Catalonia had 7,512,000 residents and Spain 47,021,000.

After not having found the needed private investors to meet the required levels of core capital, the Bank of Spain’s Governor announced that the Spanish State would intervene in four savings banks, including two from Catalonia. The State will control 100% of Unnim and 90% of CatalunyaCaixa. Once the banks are streamlined, private investors will be offered shares. The European Commission has authorised the operation. Now, all Spain’s banks and savings banks have at least 8% core capital. Considering the global banking sector restructuring in Spain, the Spanish State has spent 19,000 million euros from the public finances.

“It means that we are not wanted, we are excluded, we are ignored” stated Artur Mas, President of the Catalan Government and leader of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU). It was the first time he has spoken on the Constitutional amendment limiting the public deficit that has been agreed on only between the PSOE and the PP. The CiU has protested against reforming the Constitution solely on the basis of the agreement of only two parties. Members of the PP and the PSOE have been trying to convince the CiU to support what both parties had previously agreed, and PM Zapatero (from the PSOE) asked the CiU to show some “moderation”.

The data corresponded to the end of June. The Spanish Statistics Institute confirmed the data, proving the prediction by the Bank of Spain of a slowdown in the economy.

The yield on Spanish bonds reached 400 points more than German ‘bunds’, a record since the introduction of the euro

Unnim and CatalunyaCaixa would have 4.5% and 4.8% of core capital respectively. However, the provisions that all Spanish banks must have to face difficult times have not been taken into account as they did not exist in other European banking systems. With these funds taken into account, Unnim and CatalunyaCaixa would have approved the tests with 6.2% and 6.3% respectively. CaixaBank, the most important Catalan bank passes the test with 6.4%.

However, if the question is open to other options, 33% would prefer a Catalan State within a Federal Spain, 31.8% the current situation as an Autonomous Community and 25.5% want Catalonia to be an independent nation. The poll results also show that 75.5% of Catalans want the Catalan Government to raise all the taxes, while only 18.2% prefer the current system through which the Spanish Government raises the main taxes. The poll was compiled by the Catalan Polling Centre (CEO), which is managed by the Catalan Government.

The International Monetary Fund wants the Spanish Government to “strengthen” the labour market reform, not give up on spending cuts and restructure the financial system. The same day, the Bank of Spain's Governor, Miguel Angel Fernández Ordóñez asked the Spanish Minister for Economy to be “stricter” on the Autonomous Community government’s deficit reduction. The Catalan Minister for Finance said on several occasions that Catalonia would meet the deficit objective for 2011 if the Spanish Government showed some institutional loyalty and paid the money it legally owes to Catalonia.

The Catalan Parliament rejected a law proposal on Catalonia’s independence three days after the popular consultation process on the issue ended with a clear “yes”. This civil society voting was not an official referendum and it was not organised by public powers. It took place over the course of 18 months, and Barcelona closed the process on Sunday. 21% of the electoral census turned out (885.000 citizens) and 90% of the voters backed Catalonia’s independence from Spain. Members of the Catalan Government cast their vote, including the President.

This English writer has been living in Catalonia for the last 26 years. This week he presented his new book ‘Barcelona, Catalonia: A View from the Inside’. Tree explains the difficulties he encounters explaining Catalonia to foreigners.

On the same day that Catalan hospitals presented their plans to reduce their budget by 10% and cut several services, the Catalan Government’s Spokesperson sent a strong message to Madrid saying that "enough was enough." The Spanish Government answered the calls by the Catalan Executive by saying that if it does not meet the 1.3% deficit objective for 2011, it will run out of cash. Madrid is asking for greater budget cuts. Almost all Catalan political parties, including the People’s Party, back up the Catalan Government, the main exception being the Socialist Party, which supports Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero.

The Spanish Government demands an additional budget reduction of 3.2 billion euros to Catalonia, while the Catalan Government claims 3.3 billion owed by the Spanish State. Catalan parties have accused Prime Minister Zapatero of reducing his government’s deficit by increasing that of the autonomous communities. The Spanish Government wants to force Autonomous Communities to pay for the deficit by limiting it through specific laws.

The Bank of Spain today released the debt of the Spanish Autonomous Communities. Catalan public debt represents 16.2% of Catalonia’s GDP and increased 36.7% in one year. The new Catalan Government stressed its austerity and stability plan, which will cut public expenditure by 10%.