economic

The number of people unemployed and registered as such at the Catalan Public Employment Service (SOC) at the end of October increased by 7,325 peoplecompared to the September figures, a growth of 1.62%, according to data released on Monday by the Spanish Ministry for Employment. In total, there were 458,406 individuals who were without a job and were looking for a new one. In the whole of Spain, unemployment increased by 44,685 people in October, which means that the total number of jobseekers registered on the Public Employment Service’s lists reached 3,764,982. Within the last 12 months, unemployment in Spain fell by 411,387individuals, 9.85% less than last year.The construction sector is the only area where unemployment decreased in both Catalonia and Spain. 

The number of people registered on the unemployment lists in Catalonia in July stood at 441,016 people, 9,044 fewer than in June, according to the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security. July represents the sixth consecutive month in which the unemployment rate has decreased and has now returned to 2008 levels, in particular those of December of that year, when the number of unemployed in Catalonia stood at 423,232. Since 2010 unemployment has usually fallen in July, due to seasonal contracts and summer sales. However, this year not only the services but all economic sectors contributed to this decline. In the whole of Spain, the number of unemployed fell by 83,993 and totalled 3,683,061, the biggest decline in July since 1997.

Neither ‘Brexit’ nor the lack of a government in Spain seem to have affected the progress of the Catalan economy, which registered 3.5% growth at the end of the second quarter of 2016 compared to the same period last year. According to figures released this Thursday by the Catalan Finance Ministry and the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat), the pace of growth in  the second quarter was 0.8% in terms of GDP, the same figure registered in the previous quarter. Regarding the economic sectors, industry registered the highest growth, even higher than the Eurozone average. Considering these figures, the forecasts for the whole of 2016 made by the Catalan Department for Economy may have to be revised upwards, since in May the body estimated a 2.9% growth for the whole year.

Spain’s effort to reduce its public deficit “has been insufficient”, according to Brussels. Thus, the European Commission (EC) took this Thursday the first step in order to fine Spain, ahead of the Ecofin meeting. The fining process foresees that 20 days after this meeting, the EC could present the suggested fine, which could equal 0.2% of Spain’s GDP. According to a report released this Thursday by the EC, Spain closed 2015 with a 5.1% deficit target, far from the 4.2% established by Brussels. The report concludes that Spain’s fiscal effort fell “significantly short” of what was recommended and even “relaxed in 2015”. “Spain did not reach the intermediate target for the headline deficit in 2015 and is not forecast to put an end to its excessive deficit by 2016”. 

Catalan companies sold abroad some €31,899.9 million worth of goods and services between January and June this year, which represents a 7.16% increase on the figures from the first six months of 2014, according to information released on Tuesday by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy and Competitiveness. Catalan exports have never before reached such a high sales volume for a six-month period. Not only this, the level of international sales registered during June alone also broke all previous records for this month, coming in at €5,662.1 million. Indeed, almost month after month Catalonia's export records were broken during the first half of this year and the Catalan economy has seen exports rocket during the last 3 years. In Spain as a whole, international sales have also broken all previous records in the first half of 2015, reaching 125,122.9 million, a 4.9% growth on figures from the first 6 months of 2014. Thus, the Catalan economy generated 25.49% of Spain's total exports, while representing 19% of its GDP and 16% of its population.

The Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) closed the door Monday on supporting a hypothetical specific economic agreement between Catalonia and Spain, similar to the specific fiscal pact already in existence for the Basque Country, which would recognise Catalonia’s “specificities”, strengthen its self-rule and better fund its institutions, public services and infrastructure. However, the PSOE did urge the Spanish Government “to update” the current inter-territorial fiscal scheme in order to improve the funding of Autonomous Communities such as Catalonia, calling for “a fairer and more equitable model”. A majority of Catalan society has been asking for such a fiscal agreement for many years, which would help reduce the chronic fiscal deficit while keeping solidarity with poorer regions.

The Catalan GDP increased by 0.9% between April and June this year, which is a positive figure but slightly lower than the 1.1% rate registered during the first quarter. However, in annual terms, the Catalan economy grew by 3% in the year to June, which is more than the 2.6% annual growth registered in March. Such a high level of annual growth had not been registered since September 2007, before the financial crisis started. According to the Catalan Finance Ministry, the minor fall off in growth registered between April and June compared to the growth rate from January to March is due to the "extraordinary" 1.1% growth rate of the first quarter. The Ministry stressed that 0.9% growth is still a very positive rate and does not break the trend of the economic recovery, on the contrary proving its strength.

Real estate continues its positive trend and is gradually leaving behind the crisis the sector went through between 2008 and 2014. Housing sales have grown in Catalonia for the 9^th consecutive month in annual terms. This week, the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE) released the sales figures for the month of June 2015 and they show an 8.15% growth in Catalonia compared to June last year. It is the best figure for the month of June since 2010. Previously-owned properties are leading the market by a clear margin, with only 15% of sales being new builds. In Spain as a whole, housing sales have already seen 10 consecutive months of growth. In June, they increased by 17% on last year’s figures, with 78.3% of the properties sold having been previously owned.

Registered unemployment decreased in Catalonia by 9,162 people in July compared to the previous month, the third-biggest drop for the month of July since 1996. The total number of people registered as unemployed with Catalonia’s Public Employment Service (SOC) at the end of the month was 501,785 individuals, which represents an 11.69% drop in annual terms, the highest percentage decrease since April 2000 (when registered unemployment dropped 11.94% compared to 1999 figures). In addition, the figures from July mean that there have now been 25 consecutive months of annual drops in the number of unemployed in Catalonia. As well as this, the total number of Catalans without a job and looking for one at the end of last month was the lowest  since July 2009 (when there were 495,911 jobless people). In Spain as a whole, registered unemployment decreased by 74,028 people from June to July, which represents an 8.45% annual drop and is Spain’s most significant decrease for the month of July since 1998.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, has stated that Catalonia's upcoming elections are Spain's "main risk" to the State itself and to the country’s economic recovery. Rajoy read a speech before the press before departing for his summer break, and Catalonia's independence was one of the main issues he talked about. The Spanish PM stressed that the government he heads "will never allow secession to happen"; "by no means will there be independence", he emphasised. He also stressed that the Spanish Government is ready "to fight the battle of defending the many millions of citizens who feel Catalan, Spanish and European". Rajoy said he is satisfied with the strategy he has been employing during the last few years, based on a total rejection of even talking about the organisation of a mutually-agreed vote like the one that took place in Scotland. According to him, his approach was "cautious and proportional". "We have not made any concession", he added, "nothing". According to him, any Spanish PM would have acted in the same way, as "it is not easy to hold a dialogue with somebody who wants to organise a referendum".

Catalonia's GDP increased by 3.5% between June 2014 and June 2015 and was the Autonomous Community with the third-highest level of economic growth, leading Spain's economic recovery.  Spain as a whole grew at a 3.1% annual rate in the same period, according to figures released on Thursday by the Spanish Independent Fiscal Authority (Airef). Ahead of Catalonia in terms of GDP growth are the Balearic Islands – with 4% growth – and the Valencian Country (also called Valencian Community) – with growth of 3.9%. They are followed by Catalonia (3.5%), the Canary Islands (3.4%) and the Madrid region (3.2%). According to these figures, the eastern part of Spain has been the most dynamic during the last few months, and Catalonia, which is the wealthiest Autonomous Community and has one of the highest growth rates, is the region contributing the most in absolute terms.

The President of Barcelona's Chamber of Commerce Miquel Valls has recognised that there is "an important concern" among many business owners about Catalonia's self-determination process and the economic consequences resulting from the forthcoming Catalan Parliament elections, scheduled for 27 September and which will be transformed into a 'de facto' plebiscite on independence. A few months ago, Valls presented a report from the Chamber of Commerce stating that the self-determination process of the last few years had not affected the economy, as exports, tourism and direct foreign investment were growing at a higher rate in Catalonia than in the rest of Spain. However, as the 'de facto' plebiscite approaches and the political landscape becomes more uncertain due to the independence road map and threats from Spanish institutions, business owners are increasingly worried. In this vein, Valls urged the political parties to detail their economic proposals for after the September elections.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, presented on Monday the model for Catalonia's own Treasury, which will be developed should "the political conditions" be there, he stated. "This is the most serious attempt to build our own Treasury in the last 300 years", stressed Mas. "After two years of work, we are ready" to launch and Catalans should not waste "this great opportunity", he stressed. "Without our own Treasury, there is no real self-government", the Catalan President stated. The system would include Catalonia's own Tax Agency and  is inspired by the taxation authorities in countries such as Sweden, Denmark and Australia, which prioritise cooperation with taxpayers over controlling them. In these models, efforts are concentrated on severely persecuting tax evaders and underground economy, while the vast majority of tax-payers who deal correctly with their fiscal obligations receive assistance and have unlimited access to their fiscal data.

This May, Catalan exports increased by 4.5% on the same period in 2014, reaching €5,301.7 million and setting a new record as the best May since 2000 (when comparable data started to be collected), according to figures published on Thursday by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy and Competitiveness. Imports also rose, by 2.7% to €6,331.2 million. The chemical industry accounted for €1,433.9 million, increasing by 7.1%, followed by the car industry, represented €882.5 million and a 6% growth. In contrast, exports in capital goods fell by 7.1% (€892.8 million). In the whole of Spain, exports increased by 1.9%, totalling €21,025 million and breaking a new record for a month of May since the beginning of the historical series in 1971.

Prices increased by three-tenths during June and left an annual inflation of 0.3%, the highest in Catalonia in the last year, particularly since June 2014, according to data published Tuesday by the Spanish Institute of Statistics (INE). This data marks the second consecutive month with positive inflation in Catalonia after six consecutive months of recording negative rates. Spain as a whole also entered this June with positive inflation (+0.1%) after 11 months straight of deflation. June 2015 is the first month since June 2014 with positive annual inflation in both Catalonia and Spain as a whole, signifying economic recovery. Prices for electricity – which increased this June after falling last year – and the upward trend in prices of fresh fruit have decisively solidified recent inflation.