imf

Two months ago the International Monetary Fund had forecast a drop of 8% in the Spanish economy

The first budget plan since 2017 is expected to be passed in the parliamentary session

Spread of Covid-19 poses financial threat to sectors such as leisure, tourism, and transport

Autonomous Communities in Spain should have “greater power to mobilise their own revenues”. This is one of the main pieces of advice the International Monetary Fund (IMF) gives in its monitoring report of the Spanish economy. The text stresses that “without reforms”, the Spanish regional financing framework remains “a risk for the achievement of fiscal targets”. “Reforms should aim to improve regions’ incentives to comply with fiscal targets while accounting for their different economic capacities”, adds the report. In this regard, it proposes a “more automatic and stricter enforcement of targets” and giving the regions greater autonomy to mobilise their incomes. Furthermore, the IMF urges Spain to reduce value-added tax exemptions and excise duties and environmental levies.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reviewed and improved its economic growth forecasts for Spain, going from a 2.5% growth rate for 2015 forecast in April to a 3.1% one foreseen this June, and from 2% to 2.5% for 2016. However, the IMF has also issued recommendations and warnings, emphasising that Spain will have to carry out "additional fiscal efforts" and "structural reforms" in order not to jeopardise the country’s economic recovery. The IMF recommends that Spain reduce the costs of public healthcare and education by making users pay for part of the services. According to the international organisation, Autonomous Community governments – such as Catalonia's – should have greater fiscal responsibilities in such systems since they exclusively manage them. In this vein, the IMF has praised the fiscal consolidation efforts undertaken over the past few years by regional governments and has asked for an increase in their funding and fiscal powers, as well as for the adapting of the deficit targets to their needs.

The former leader of the European Union diplomacy and now an International Relations professor at the Barcelona-based ESADE business school, Javier Solana, stated that it is “difficult” to believe that such a measure could be implemented in Spain or Italy. Solana, who chairs the EsadeGeo Centre for Global Economy and Geopolitics, highlighted the fact that “it is an unprecedented decision to make all depositors pay” such a tax. According to Solana, this could create “insecurity” and it is “an unfair decision for honest money savers”, despite the measure targeting those who have manipulated Cyprus’ financial system.

The International Monetary Fund wants the Spanish Government to “strengthen” the labour market reform, not give up on spending cuts and restructure the financial system. The same day, the Bank of Spain's Governor, Miguel Angel Fernández Ordóñez asked the Spanish Minister for Economy to be “stricter” on the Autonomous Community government’s deficit reduction. The Catalan Minister for Finance said on several occasions that Catalonia would meet the deficit objective for 2011 if the Spanish Government showed some institutional loyalty and paid the money it legally owes to Catalonia.

Kenneth Rogoff, currently professor at Harvard, predicts that Spain has a “high chance” of being rescued by the European Union. He also ads that, if it were not rescued, even France could fall.