catalan independence

According to a poll from the Catalan Centre for Polling (CEO), 54.7% of Catalans would vote “yes” to independence while 22.1% would vote “no” and 15.7% are undecided. The poll shows similar percentages than the other polls issued in the last few months from several different institutions and companies. However, the poll indicates that for the first time, independence is the clear preferred alternative among possible formulas for the relationship between Catalonia and Spain. Independence would be the preferred scenario for 48.5% of Catalans, while those in favour of a federal Spain with Catalonia having greater powers represent 21.3% of the interviewees. Finally, the Catalans that prefer maintaining the current status quo amount to 18.6%.

Experts from academia and Catalan and Andalusian civil society held a debate on the right to self-determination in the University of Seville. This Friday, the Public Diplomacy Council of Catalonia (Diplocat), in cooperation with Seville’s Law Faculty, organised two round tables on the democratic and legal implications of a self-determination vote in Catalonia and the role played by civil society. Diplocat is the Catalan soft diplomacy network supported by the main public institutions, business associations and chambers of commerce. Diplocat’s Secretary General, Albert Royo, pointed out that 80% of Catalans would like to hold a self-determination vote and for this reason the soft diplomacy network organises events such as the one in Seville, in order to involve the Spanish society in the debate. Antonio Merchán, Dean of the Law Faculty, highlighted the importance “to talk” about it.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, said on Thursday that he was hoping that “moderation” and “common sense” will finally “prevail in Catalonia”. In the evening, the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, replied that Rajoy’s statement is “comical and audacious”, because Catalonia has a long tradition of moderation and tolerance. “The first way of being tolerant is making a step towards the other and, historically, Catalonia has always made this step”, Mas stated. However, now Catalan citizens want to decide on their possible independence from Spain and the “moderate” attitude is to talk about how to allow them to democratically vote on the issue, he pointed out. “Moderation cannot be confused with giving up” on a claim shared by a majority of Catalans, added Mas.

The Catalan Parliament’s Committee on self determination welcomed two Scottish MPs, Stewart Maxwell (SNP) and Patricia Ferguson (Labour Party) to learn from their experience on the political processes that led to the 2014 Scottish referendum. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) is currently divided on the issue of holding a self-determination referendum without Madrid’s previous agreement. The PSC leadership is convinced that any self-determination initiative has to be agreed in advance with the Spanish Government. However, some PSC MPs believe that since Madrid is currently refusing to negotiate, the Catalan people is entitled to put their own legal proposals on the table and ultimately organise the referendum on their own. The PSC asked if a referendum was possible without a political agreement between governments. Ferguson answered she believed Scotland would have gone trough with the referendum, even without a Westminster approval.

In a clear reference to the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, the former Spanish Prime Minister José María Aznar – who chairs the governing People’s Party (PP) think tank – asked for the approval of a former law sentencing any public figure organising a referendum that has previously been declared illegal to a 5-year incarceration. Aznar, who led the Spanish Government between 1996 and 2004, is a strong supporter of Spanish nationalist stances and has requested PM Mariano Rajoy to take a harder approach regarding Catalonia’s self-determination claims. The PP replied Aznar that currently there are “enough mechanisms” “guaranteeing” that an illegal vote will not take place. The Catalan President criticised Aznar’s “old-fashioned language”.

The parties supporting Catalonia’s right to self-determination regret the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC)’s decision to step down from giving active support to this political process. Last week the PSC’s leadership decided not to back any initiative in favour of a self-determination vote that has not been agreed in advance with the Spanish Government, which totally rejects the idea and even refuses to talk about it. The President of the Catalan Government and leader of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), Artur Mas, asked the PSC “not to get off the train”, stressing the party’s tradition of defending Catalan language, culture, identity and self-government. The Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) and the Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA) consider the PSC is now against a self-determination vote.

The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) held this weekend an extraordinary meeting and approved the leadership’s proposal to oppose any initiative backing Catalonia’s self-determination that has not been agreed in advance with the Spanish Government. The PSC leadership wanted to lay the critics to rest but the crisis is far from being resolved. Critical PSC MPs do not rule out supporting a Catalan Parliament’s motion backing self-determination despite the leadership’s stance. The PSC is facing important internal tensions due to Catalonia’s self-determination issue, including tensions with the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) – to which they are federated. After several months of doubts, the PSC leadership decided to prioritise its relationship with the PSOE and distance itself from Catalonia’s right to self-determination, despite its electoral promises.

The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), which is federated to the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE), has decided to harden its strategy towards Catalonia’s right to self-determination. In the PSOE’s extraordinary Political Conference, which took place last weekend, the PSC and the PSOE agreed not to break their union and to offer a more coordinated message. The PSC supports the Catalan people’s right to self-determination, but the PSOE totally rejects it. The compromise solution will be that the Catalan Socialists will stop making explicit contributions for an agreed self-determination vote in Catalonia and will focus on opposing any initiative in favour of Catalonia’s self-determination that has not been previously agreed with the Spanish institutions.

The Parliament of Catalonia rejected a proposal to call for a “unilateral” self-determination referendum in the event that the Spanish State “blocked” the possibility of organising a vote by agreement. The motion was rejected with the votes of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – which runs the Catalan Government – and the three parties defending the unity of Spain: the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), the People’s Party (PP) – which runs the Spanish Government, and the anti-Catalan nationalism and populist party Ciutadans (C’s). The motion supporting the idea of calling for a self-determination referendum in “a unilateral way” had been presented by the radical left-wing and independence party CUP, which has only 3 MPs in the 135-seat chamber. However it was also backed by the second-largest group, the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) and some of the MPs from the Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA).

The Catalan Government has presented its budget proposal for 2014, which posts a 1% deficit, representing a 35.5% annual reduction and amounting to €1.98 billion, in line with the 2014 deficit targets imposed by the Spanish Government. The budget prioritises healthcare, education and social policies, which represent 71% of the total non-financial spending. Non-financial spending grows by 0.2% and reaches €20.30 billion, while the total spending amounts to €29.31 billion. The Catalan Finance Minister stressed that spending had not been reduced this year since in the last 3 years it had already dropped by 22%. Budget cuts “have reached their limit”, as otherwise “social cohesion” and “the Welfare State” would “be at risk” he said. In 2014 the Catalan Executive will spend the same per inhabitant as it was doing in 2004 taking into account inflation (€1,901).The adjustment for 2014 focuses on increasing revenue by €3.2 billion, mostly through new taxes (€910 million) and the sales of assets and privatisations (€2.32 billion). On top of this, the Catalan Government forecasts a 0.9% economic growth for 2014, leaving behind the recession of 2012 (-1.2%) and 2013 (-1.1%).

The Spanish PM, Mariano Rajoy, considered that “to reform the Constitution in order to satisfy those who will not be satisfied”, referring to the citizens supporting Catalonia’s independence from Spain, who represent more than 50% of Catalans according to polls, would be “a great mistake”. Answering a question from the former Catalan President José Montilla, Rajoy stated before the Senate that “Spain and national sovereignty are not negotiable”. However, despite these red lines, Rajoy affirmed that his attitude towards Catalonia is “to talk” in order to find a negotiated way out. More than 80% of Catalans would like to hold a self-determination vote in Catalonia.

The President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, visited Barcelona on Thursday and met with the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, and the Secretary General of the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), Pere Navarro. Schulz, who is the Social-Democrat candidate in the next European Elections for the President of the European Commission, acknowledged that he talked about Catalonia’s self-determination process with Mas and Navarro. However, the German politician refused to take sides, saying he has “no solution” to offer and that “the problem” has to be solved between Catalonia and Spain, not at European level. Furthermore, he insisted that Catalonia’s independence should not be the issue in the next European elections. “I want to talk about youth unemployment”, he stressed.

The Spanish Deputy Prime Minister, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría made it clear that “members of the Spanish Government” and “members of the Generalitat [Catalan Government]” have been holding meetings in the past few weeks, including the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy. “We inform about some of them and about others we do not, out of consideration for the delicate subject”, she stated. Sáenz de Santamaría insisted that talks were just starting; “we are in an incipient phase”, she stressed, “to acknowledge that channels for negotiation have to be found”. However, she totally rejected the main demand from a broad majority of Catalan society, for allowing a self-determination vote to take place in Catalonia. The Deputy PM did not want to disclose any part of the Spanish Government’s strategy on how to handle the issue. However, she praised the figure of the ‘number 2’ of the Centre Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida.

Hannes Swoboda, Chairman of the Social-Democrat Group at the European Parliament, highlighted “the necessity to stick together, to solve the problems together in Spain”. The Austrian politician rejected what he sees as the Catalan attitude: “we are richer and we are leaving Spain”. “That is not a solution for the Spanish and European problems” he warned. In addition, he stated that Catalans “have to know” that “if they go independent without the agreement of the national government they are no longer in the European Union”. The veteran MEP asked Catalans to be “realistic” and “to fight for the improvement of living conditions and not for the destruction of what we have achieved over the last decades”.

In the last few days, there has been an attempt to build bridges between Catalonia and Spain, despite the visible increase of tension between the two governments. In public the Catalan and Spanish Executives are heading for a collision but at the same time discreet manoeuvres explore alternative ways out. This Tuesday, the ‘number 2’ of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – which runs the Catalan Government – Josep Antoni Duran I Lleida acknowledged that he met with the Spanish Prime Minister and leader of the People’s Party (PP) Mariano Rajoy on the 16^th October. Besides, the Catalan President, Artur Mas, met on Friday with the Secretary General of the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) to talk about a constitutional change. Today, the Spokesperson of the Catalan Government, Francesc Homs, stated that Catalonia is waiting for an offer from the Spanish establishment. Although “there is no deadline” for this offer, the self-determination process will not be waiting for it, although if it arrives it will be studied.