Outbreak risk exceeds 'high risk' threshold, reaches early April levels

Transmission rate also increases to 1.21, but number of hospitalized and using intensive care units stable

Image of a PCR test being performed in Mollerussa, western Catalonia, on September 8, 2020 (by Oriol Bosch)
Image of a PCR test being performed in Mollerussa, western Catalonia, on September 8, 2020 (by Oriol Bosch) / ACN

ACN | Barcelona

September 24, 2020 10:59 AM

The Covid-19 outbreak risk exceeded the 'high risk' threshold in Catalonia on Thursday, according to official figures.

The ratio surged to 206.57, growing 50 points in only five days – the threshold of 'high' risk is at 100, and 'very high' at 200.

This is the worst figure since April 5, when the risk was already falling after the all-time peak of 455 on March 23.

The Spanish average is at 227, according to the latest weekly report by the Polytechnic University of Catalonia (UPC). The same report set the Madrid region's outbreak risk at 783 one week ago.

Using the iEPG index, the outbreak risk is calculated by multiplying the average spread of the virus over the past seven days by the cumulative incidence over the past two weeks.

Transmission rate also on the rise

The transmission rate, that is, the average number of people each Covid-19 patient is transmitting the virus, is also growing: on Thursday it reached 1.21, way past 1, the aim set by authorities.

Earlier this week, the figure surged to 1, and it has rapidly increased over the past three days.

Both the outbreak risk and the transmission rate have interrupted their downwards trend coinciding with the beginning of the 2020-2021 academic year.

Indeed, the number of schools affected by partial quarantines or total closures due to the pandemic are growing every day.

Concerning the number of people in hospital due to the pandemic, the figures are stable compared to the past few weeks, with those hospitalized at 771 and those using intensive care units at 140.

Positive PCR tests per 100,000 inhabitants

As for the number of diagnoses confirmed by PCR test per every 100,000 inhabitants, an index useful to compare countries, the figure has stayed is 91, surpassing the figures of August, below 80. Its peak was 152 in late March, then fell to 6 in June, and spiked again at 86 in July.