economic crisis

“Unity gives us strength as a country”, stated Artur Mas, President of the Catalan Government, in the New Year’s official speech, which is broadcast annually on 30 December. Mas emphasised that “the [Spanish] State wants us to be divided”, because this way “we are weaker and more vulnerable”. The Catalan President makes this statement in the middle of the talks he is carrying out with the opposition left-wing independence party ERC in order to decide whether to run together in early elections that should be transformed into a ‘de facto’ independence referendum. However, the left-wing ERC is reluctant to run with Mas and members of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, which he leads. In his address, Mas also spoke in praise of the symbolic independence vote held on 9 November, which was “an exercise of democracy”, which “should call for dialogue and negotiation, instead of criminal prosecutions”.

In 2011 and 2012, funds for scientific research in Catalonia dropped from €277 million to €224 million, a 19% decrease, according to a study issued on Friday by the Catalan Association of Public Universities. Despite this drastic budget reduction, scientific production has managed to keep similar levels to previous years and continue standing at levels similar to those in countries such as the UK or Belgium. The report compiles the main research and innovation indicators for 2011 and 2012. However, the main representatives of public universities warn that scientific production is at risk and could drop to pre-2010 levels if the budget situation does not shift. They also highlighted that public universities in Catalonia have the challenge of attracting greater private investment for its research projects.

The President of the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, has explained his own road map to allow citizens to vote on independence from Spain and build a new state. Junqueras proposed running in immediate early elections through different pro-independence lists with shared elements and opened to independents, in order to respect diversity. The ERC leader differed from the proposal of running through a single electoral list made by the President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas. Junqueras insisted on the need to answer to the social and economic concerns of many citizens in addition to those about independence. Should they altogether obtain a majority, the different pro-independence candidatures should form a national unity government and start building the new state from day one. He particularly emphasised the need to include those who did not voted for independence in the constituent process, which should be finally ratified in a referendum.

According to official data released by the Catalan Ministry of Economics and the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Idescat), the Catalan economy grew by 0.5% between and July and September 2014, the latest in six consecutive quarters of positive economic growth. A signal that the recession is far left behind. The whole of Spain also grew by 0.5% in the same 3 months. In annual terms, Catalonia's GDP has grown by 1.8%, mainly thanks to the boost by the services sector,which has demonstrated an annual growth of 2.4%. The sector of industry grew by 1.5% and those of construction and agriculture decreased by -2.6% and -1% respectively. Idescat’s previous predictions for 2014 quarters has been reviewed: the 0.5% initially estimated for the first quarter increased to 0.7%, while the 0.6% for the second quarter dropped to 0.5%.

Figures released by the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce on Monday showed that the economy of Catalonia is set to grow by 1.6% in 2014 and 2.1% in 2015. The Chamber also predicted that by 2015, there will be a 2% rise in Spain’s GDP and 1.4% in that of the Eurozone countries average. According to the President of the Chamber, Miquel Valls, the recovery of Catalan and Spanish economies is "solid", but he stressed that the "austerity in wages" must be maintained. This report comes after the success of all Catalan banks passing the stress tests issued by the European Banking Authority and the European Central Bank, which 25 banks across Europe failed. Related economic news is that the unemployment figures released for third quarter of 2014 set Catalonia’s rate at 19.1% and Spain’s at 23.67%.

The left-wing independence party ERC asked the Catalan President to join the Government "in order to protect the [self-determination] consultation vote" scheduled on the 9^th of November. The Catalan President, Artur Mas, stated that they will talk about it in the coming days to strengthen the unity around November's vote. In addition, the Catalan Socialist party (PSC) also asked Mas to talk to them if the Constitutional Court ultimately bans the consultation vote. The People's Party (PP), which runs the Spanish Government, accused Mas of promoting "a soft dictatorship" in Catalonia. The green-socialist and post-communist coalition ICV stated they want a consultation vote with "credibility". The Spanish nationalist and populist C's said that Mas' time is finished and asked for early elections. Finally, the alternative left and radical independence party CUP advocated ignoring Spain's institutions and voting on the 9^th of November by any means.

The real estate market has stopped its downward trend and has started its recovery in Spain. Housing prices already registered an increase in September of 2013 in quarterly terms, but now the prices grew for the first time in annual terms, a phenomenon not registered for the last 6 years. By the end of June 2014, prices grew by 0.97% compared to June 2013. In quarterly terms, housing prices increased by 1.53% compared to March 2014. Since the start of the economic crisis in 2008, housing prices have plummeted an average of 32% throughout Spain, with prices equivalent to those registered in 2003. In the second quarter of 2014, Catalonia was the Autonomous Community with the second highest number of housing sales, registering 11,980 operations.

The Catalan economy grew by 1.3% from July 2013 to June 2014. However, the economic recovery has particularly sped up and got stronger over the second quarter of 2014, when it grew by 0.6% in quarterly terms, according to data released on Wednesday by the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat) and the Catalan Finance Ministry. The GDP growth between April and June was higher than the one registered during the first quarter of the year, set at 0.4%. With the 0.6% registered at the end of June, Catalonia has achieved 5 consecutive quarters of posting positive figures, leaving the recession more than a year behind. Regarding economic sectors, services have led the economic recovery, posting a 1.8% annual growth at the end of the first half of 2014.

''The recovery has come and has come to stay,'' according to Salvador Guillermo, Director of the Economy of Catalonia's main association of business-owners, Foment del Treball. Guillermo, who coordinated the report published on Tuesday, said that the analysis of economic data confirms that the positive trends have been occurring a month earlier in Catalonia than in the rest of Spain, "which means that recovery is more entrenched'' in Catalonia. The agents of this recovery are internal demand (consumption and investment) and the fast pace of exports in Catalonia.

The Catalan economy grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2014, which means that GDP has been increasing for the last 4 consecutive quarters, leaving recession far behind, according to an early estimate published on Monday by Catalonia’s Statistics Institute (Idescat) and the Catalan Ministry of the Economy and Knowledge. Furthermore, between March 2013 and March 2014, Catalonia’s economy grew by 0.8%. In the second quarter of 2013 it registered a quarterly growth of 0.1%; in the third it also posted a 0.1% quarterly growth; between October and December, it increased by 0,2%; and now, between January and March, it grew by 0.4%. The services sector has been the main engine behind this positive trend; in the last 12 months it grew by 1.4%.

The Catalan Parliament held on Wednesday a monographic session on poverty, which has increased over the past few years, spurred by the financial crisis. According to a report published by the Red Cross this week, there are 200,000 families in Catalonia which live below the poverty line and since the crisis started, 88 Catalans a day have crossed such a line. With a population of some 7.5 million and a GDP per capita of around €28,000 (similar to the UK's) Catalonia posts a 22.3% unemployment rate and a 26.4% child poverty rate. Opposition parties asked for greater efforts and further measures to fight the poverty increase. The Catalan Government emphasised budget figures and detailed several actions in different areas to show they are tackling the issue. In this vein, the Executive criticised that child poverty stood at 22% in 2006, in prosperity years. Furthermore, they complained about the limited fiscal powers on taxation and public deficit, which seriously reduce spending possibilities.

The Catalan Minister for Territory and Sustainability, Santi Vila, who is also in charge of housing policies, presented on Tuesday the draft of a new tax bill on empty flats and houses owned by financial institutions in Catalonia. During a press conference, Vila explained that such a tax is looking to be an “incentive” for banks to make available their 15,000 flats spread across 70 municipalities with “proven demand” for housing, mainly around Barcelona, Tarragona, Lleida and Girona, and which have been empty for more than 2 years without a justified cause. The amount of the tax will be based on the total number of square meters owned by the banks and will include significant accumulative bonuses if the institutions decide to rent their properties, notably for social housing. The Catalan Government estimates that banks own around 40,000 empty flats, including in areas with housing demand.

Housing prices increased by 0.8% in Catalonia during the third quarter of 2013, which is the first quarterly increase in the last three years. However, despite the positive figures, in annual terms prices at the end of September were 8.1% lower than those registered 12 months ago, due to the price falls registered in the second half of 2012 and the first 6 months of 2013. Between July and September 2013, prices of newly-built flats and houses in Catalonia rose by 5.7%, while those of second-hand housing were still decreasing (-0.3%). However, overall figures suggest that the real estate market may have reached the bottom and that its recovery might be about to start. In the whole of Spain, housing prices rose by 0.7% in the third quarter of 2013.

The Catalan Government wants energy companies not to cut off the domestic power supply to people in financial difficulties who are temporarily unable to pay their bills. The Catalan Ministry of Business and Employment aims to fight so-called ‘energy poverty’: people who are obliged to do without electricity or gas because they simply cannot afford the bills. In the current economic crisis, thousands of Catalan households (around 20%) are facing this problem, which means they cannot use the heating during winter or they have problems cooking meals. In order to achieve this objective, the Catalan Executive is looking at modifying Catalonia’s Consumption Code to include this initiative fighting ‘energy poverty’.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, replied that “nobody believes” in the “apocalyptic” message sent by the Governor of the Bank of Spain, who was appointed by the current Spanish Government in 2012. Mas asked Luís María Linde for “caution” and “to serve the whole of Spain and do not take sides”. Linde stated in Madrid that “independence is unviable”. He argued that the European Central Bank only funds Member States and thus Catalonia would be “obliged to issue its own currency” and have “its own banking supervisor”. On the same day, the Spanish Finance Minister, Cristóbal Montoro, said that if Catalonia were independent it would have “to abandon the Euro” and this could even lead to putting the entire Eurozone at risk. However, in September the European Commission confirmed that an independent Catalonia could continue to use the Euro in different scenarios.