Politics

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, has reacted to the unitary pro-independence list that will run in the next Catalan elections (scheduled for 27 September) and which groups the main civil society organisations with Liberals, Social-Democrats, Socialists, Greens and Christian-Democrats politicians. These elections will become a 'de facto' plebiscite on Catalonia's independence from Spain, after almost 3 years of the Spanish Government unilaterally blocking any discussion about a mutually agreed vote, despite the clear democratic mandate from the 2012 Catalan elections. On Thursday, Rajoy stated that "Catalonia's independence will not take place". In front of the Polish PM, Ewa Kopacz, Rajoy stressed that his government "is absolutely prepared" to enforce the law if somebody violates it. On Wednesday, he had already referred to the forthcoming Catalan elections, saying they "will be just another autonomic election […] and nothing else", "despite the confusion manoeuvres" of the pro-independence forces.

Former Member of the European Parliament Raül Romeva, who also used to be a member of the Catalan Green-Socialist party ICV, will be heading the pro-independence unitary list formed for the next Catalan elections by the Liberal party CDC, the Social-Democrat ERC, the Socialist MES and the Christian-Democrat DC with leading representatives from civil society. Civil society activists Carme Forcadell and Muriel Casals will come second and third respectively. The elections, scheduled for 27 September, will become a 'de facto' referendum on independence, after almost 3 years of the Spanish Government unilaterally blocking any discussion for a mutually agreed vote, despite the clear democratic mandate from the 2012 Catalan elections, when citizens voted overwhelmingly for parties supporting a legal self-determination vote. After months of discussions, almost all the pro-independence forces are uniting and forming a shared list to transform the next elections into an independence plebiscite.

The Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) and Barcelona-based Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB) think tanks, together with an Italian and a Greek research centre, have presented a report stating that the economy of an independent Catalonia would grow more in the next 15 years than if the current 'status quo' was kept. The study analyses 3 different scenarios: the current model, an agreed independence process and a unilateral declaration of independence. In either case of independence, the Catalan economy would be in better shape in the long-run than if the current framework was kept, the researchers conclude. However, in the event of a unilateral process, there may be negative economic effects in the short-term, mostly due to uncertainties related to EU Membership. Nonetheless, they consider the current inter-territorial fiscal scheme – imposed by the Spanish Government – "unsustainable at macroeconomic level" for Catalonia.

The main civil society organisations supporting independence have backed the creation of a single unitary list among the main forces aiming to transform the next Catalan Parliament elections, scheduled for 27 September, into a 'de facto' plebiscite on independence. After months of discussions and public disagreements, there is finally a wide consensus that, even if it does not include all the pro-independence parties, is backed by a wide majority of them, ranging from Socialists to Christian-democrats and including Liberals. The list will be headed by an independent but will ultimately include active politicians as well as many members of civil society. The agreement was reached on Monday night between the Liberal party CDC – which runs the Catalan Government – and the Social-Democrat ERC – which has provided parliamentary support to the Executive since 2012. The incumbent Catalan President and CDC leader, Artur Mas, will form part of the list.

Catalonia's two main pro-independence parties, the Liberal CDC – which runs the Catalan Government – and the Social-Democrat ERC – which has been backing the Executive for the last 2 years – have finally reached an agreement about how to run in the next Catalan Parliament elections, scheduled for 27 September and called in order to become a 'de facto' referendum on independence from Spain. This is the only way left for Catalan citizens to hold a legal and free vote on the issue, after the Spanish Government has unilaterally blocked any discussion on the issue despite the clear democratic mandate of the last Catalan elections, held in November 2012, when an absolute majority of parties supporting the organisation of a legal self-determination referendum was elected. On Monday night, after months of discussions and public disagreements, the President of the Catalan Government and CDC leader, Artur Mas, and the leader of the ERC, Oriol Junqueras, finally reached an agreement to run together but in a unitary list to be formed by many independents and representatives from civil society.

On Monday, a summit among the main pro-independence parties and civil society organisations has been held at the Catalan President's office, the Generalitat Palace, in Barcelona. The meeting ended without a definitive agreement, although some attendees did say there was a "positive" atmosphere. An electoral list without professional politicians but grouping all the political sensitivities of the pro-independence forces is on the discussion table after days of intense public debate. This option is backed by the main civil society organisations promoting Catalonia's independence from Spain, the Catalan National Assembly (ANC) and Òmnium Cultural, as well as by the main pro-independence left-wing parties, namely the Social-Democrat ERC and the alternative left CUP. However, the governing Liberal party CDC is against this formula as it would exclude the incumbent Catalan President, Artur Mas, from running in the elections that he would call early in order to transform them into a 'de facto' referendum on independence.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, expressed doubts about the latest proposals made regarding the unitary independence electoral list Wednesday. "I'm the only one who can call an election. I will not do anything", he warned, in the event that the movement is not serious enough. In an interview with 8TV, Mas questioned the absence of politicians, the idea of having two consecutive elections and also the option of not investing in a President, as outlined in the CUP proposal for a preliminary election leaving out politicians followed immediately by a constituent election. So far, Mas has emphasised that the proposal from the CUP is an "original idea, which restores unity – something to consider, but also something far from perfect". However, he said he will analyse various proposals at a summit to be convened on Friday with all stakeholders. But CUP deputy and spokesperson David Fernández said Friday that his party would not join the summit, asking for it to be postponed.

Mark Demesmaeker, MEP of the Flemish nationalist party N-VA, lamented on Wednesday that the President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, had breached his promise to allow MEPs to address the plenary in Catalan. During his intervention in Strasbourg, he said that it is "a shame and a democratic deficit that Catalan - the 13th most spoken language in the EU, with more than 10 million speakers - cannot be used in a house that is supposed to be open and democratic". "I urge you to think that over again and fulfil your promise", concluded Demesmaeker, who was one of the observers of the 9-N non-binding referendum on Catalan independence last year.

The Catalan self-determination process and the 27-S elections' plebiscitary character were debated on Tuesday afternoon in the Irish Parliament (Oireachtas). The session took place in Dublin's Leinster House, introduced by the Chairman of the Commission for European Affairs of the Irish Parliament, the Labour Party’s Dominic Hannigan. The Catalan Government’s Secretary for External Affairs, Roger Albinyana, and the Secretary-General of Diplocat, Albert Royo, spoke about the Catalan self-determination process to members of the Irish Congress (Dáil) and Senate (Seanad), representing the majority of the political parties. The session was also attended by the Catalan Government’s delegate to the United Kingdom and Ireland, Josep Suàrez Iborra.

On Tuesday, Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida, Chairman of the Unió Democràtica de Catalunya (UDC) governing committee, said that the EU finds "a bit odd" the proposal of an electoral list without politicians for the 27-S elections. Speaking to the press from the European Parliament in Strasbourg, he said it is hard to "understand" how Catalonia will be governed."Although the post 27-S Executive's only goal will be Catalan independence, health care and education will need to be managed", he highlighted. UDC Secretary General, Ramon Espadaler, added that "UDC received the support of European Christian Democratic party leaders to run alone in the 27-S elections". In June, due to their differences on Catalonia's independence, UDC split from Artur Mas’ Convergència Democràtica de Catalunya (CDC), after running together in every election since 1978 and having forged a political "federation" between them.

The Catalan National Assembly (ANC) has overwhelmingly voted 'yes' to the internal consultation on its participation in the negotiations aimed at shaping a highly transversal electoral proposal for the 27-S elections. On Monday, the President of the ANC, Jordi Sànchez said that in the coming days his organisation will talk with all the stakeholders involved in trying to reach the best agreement for Catalan independence, remaining open to different options. However, if a deal is not reached by 20 July, the ANC will leave the negotiation process that – according to Sànchez – will have to be completely public. In January, Mas' original proposal was to have a single list with political parties and civil society organisations but parties such as ERC rejected the idea, arguing for the need to have both right-wing and left-wing pro-independence options. In June, Mas' second proposal was to have a unitary list led by pro-independence organisations that – according to their will – could invite politicians on board.

A "no" vote is favoured by 50% of the population, according to the latest barometer by the Centre for Opinion Studies (CEO), which was made public Friday. The unionist option grew 2 points compared to March, the same amount the "yes" option lost, which stands at 42.9%. "The distance between the two options is considerable", said the director of the CEO, Jordi Argelaguet. Until now, they had stayed "neck and neck" in the most recent barometers; although for months the "no" vote maintained an upward trend. When the options were expanded beyond the plebiscite, an independent state was the top choice (37.6%), ahead of becoming an autonomous region (29.3%) and a federal state (24%).

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, said Wednesday that his June proposal for civil society groups to lead a unitary electoral list "does not at all break" the pact made in January between the CDC and ERC to run separately in the 27-S elections. The leader of the centre-right CDC argued that if civil society groups accept his proposal, civil society "won´t just invite the CDC and Mr. Mas" but "whomever they want" because the list would be "transversal". After Mas made these comments, the President of the centre-left ERC said if civil society groups drafted an electoral list excluding politicians altogether, the ERC would be the "first to accept" their proposal, as long as other independence parties also decide not to run for election. "We will never be an obstacle", Junqueras remarked.

The Catalan National Assembly (ANC) has defined a proposal on how parties should collaborate for the 27-S elections. The ANC wants to present as few pro-independence lists as possible, opening the door so that they can be formed and led, if necessary, by people from civil society. It also proposed that these lists be identifiable by a "common brand" and have a shared electoral programme and joint campaign events. Finally, the ANC wants a clear commitment on the governability of Catalonia after the 27-S. According to the organisation, voting "yes" to the internal consultation on 3 and 4 July endorses this proposal and signifies unity of action.

The Spanish Council of Ministers agreed on Friday to bring before Spain’s Constitutional Court (TC) the 16/2015 decree approved by the Catalan Government. The decree – adopted last February – established the Commissioner for National Transition, a position bestowed upon Catalan Jurist Carles Viver Pi-Sunyer. The Spanish Government's legal action also targets the Executive Plans for the creation of state structures and the plan for strategic infrastructure that the Commissioner is in charge of developing, in addition to "all the arrangements and actions linked to this decree and these plans, or in line with their purpose". The Spanish Executive has also filed an appeal to the TC in order to automatically suspend both the decree and the plans, according to Article 161.2 of the Spanish Constitution.