spanish economy

The day before the massive pro-independence demonstration in Barcelona, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, once again rejected Catalonia's right to self-determination. Furthemore, Rajoy stated that a self-determination consultation vote or a unilateral declaration of independence would generate "a political problem and difficulties in the markets". Rajoy was answering to an MP from the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Josep Sánchez-Llibre. The Catalan MP stated that "what really threatens the [economic] recovery is that, in front of Catalonia's demands, [the Spanish Government] has not even issued half of a political answer that can allow the markets to believe in an agreement and not in it being on a collision course".

The value of homes in Catalonia increased by 1.6% during the second quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2013, according to the House Price Index of the Spanish Institute of Statistics (INE). In relation to the first quarter of this year, prices registered a 1.8% increase between March and June, whilst cumulatively over this year there was a 1.3% increase in property value in Catalonia. However, the prices of new flats rose by 8.7%, whilst second hand properties only saw a 0.1% growth in their value. In Spain as a whole, the House Price Index reached a 0.8% rate in annual terms, the first time this has happened at Spanish level since March 2008. 

At the end of August there were 571,616 people registered as unemployed in Catalonia, which represents 40,042 fewer job-seekers than the previous year, a 6.55% reduction, according to figures released on Tuesday by the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security. This is the 14^th consecutive month registering unemployment drops in annual terms. However, coinciding with the end of the summer holiday's peak, the number of job-seekers increased in monthly terms. At the end of August there were 3,385 more unemployed people than at the end of July, which represents a 0.6% growth. In the whole of Spain registered unemployment increased by 8,070 individuals, reaching 4,427,930 people. At the same time, the affiliation to Social Security has decreased for the first time in 6 months, dropping by 97,582 people.

The real estate market has stopped its downward trend and has started its recovery in Spain. Housing prices already registered an increase in September of 2013 in quarterly terms, but now the prices grew for the first time in annual terms, a phenomenon not registered for the last 6 years. By the end of June 2014, prices grew by 0.97% compared to June 2013. In quarterly terms, housing prices increased by 1.53% compared to March 2014. Since the start of the economic crisis in 2008, housing prices have plummeted an average of 32% throughout Spain, with prices equivalent to those registered in 2003. In the second quarter of 2014, Catalonia was the Autonomous Community with the second highest number of housing sales, registering 11,980 operations.

Catalonia is at the forefront of international tourist spending within Spain in the first seven months of this year with €8.151million, a 5.3% increase over the same period of last year, according to the Spanish Ministry of Industry, Energy and Tourism. In Spain as a whole, international tourists spent €34.497 million between January and July, a 7% interannual increase from 2013 and the highest ever figure recorded in this period. Catalonia also accounted for 23.6% of the total figure for Spain during this period of the year.

Exports from Catalonia between January and June 2014 reached €29,769.5 million, which represent a 1.8% increase compared to the same period last year. They also represented 24.9% of Spain's total exports, which reached €119,265 million, a 0.5% growth on the previous year's figures. However, despite growing at a slower pace, Spain's total exports posted a new historical record since comparable figures started to be registered in 1971. Considering just the June figures, the export sector seemed to be affected by the negative economic figures from France and Germany. Catalan exports only grew by 0.1% in June compared to the figures registered in the same month of 2013, while Spain's total exports during the first sixth months of the year decreased by 1.2%.

In Catalonia prices fell by 8 decimal points this July compared to a year ago and interanual inflation rate stood at 0%, according to the Spain's Statistical Institute (INE). This is a contrast to Spain as a whole, where prices fell by 9 decimal points in July, placing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in negative figures, as low as -0.3%. This level of negative inflation has not been recorded in the country since September 2010, when the CPI lay at -0.7%. This contrast in inflation rates indicates that the Catalan CPI is able to resist falling into negative numbers, despite what has happened to Spain's economy this year, which already registered negative CPI statistics this March. 

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, stated on Tuesday that the self-determination process is following 3 principles: respect for "the law and dialogue", "but also democracy", which will guarantee that citizens are able to vote. He said that the Government "has done its homework" by "providing information" about the process and how to build a new state, by ensuring "participation" from civil society, by proving "a will to talk" with Spanish authorities, and by showing "determination" to go ahead with the mandate resulting from the last Catalan elections to organise such a vote. Mas highlighted that the vote will be legal since it will use Catalan legislation. However, he asked citizens for "psychological strength" for the months ahead and future "challenges". Mas also emphasised that Spain's "economic recovery" is mostly "coming from Catalonia", since Catalans are "leading" the statistics regarding job creation, exports, tourism, scientific research and foreign investment.

568,231 unemployed people were registered with the Catalan Public Employment Service (SOC) this July, 1,983 less than in June, which represents a 0.35% reduction. This is 42,198 less unemployed people than in July 2013, or a 6.91% annual reduction. All of the Catalan provinces have seen a drop in unemployment over the past month. In addition, there has been an increase of Catalans registering with Social Security, a 12% rise in hiring rate and nearly all sectors in Catalonia are creating new jobs. In Spain as a whole the number of people looking for work stands at 4,419,860 people, 281,478 fewer than the previous year, which represents a 5.94% annual drop. 

''The recovery has come and has come to stay,'' according to Salvador Guillermo, Director of the Economy of Catalonia's main association of business-owners, Foment del Treball. Guillermo, who coordinated the report published on Tuesday, said that the analysis of economic data confirms that the positive trends have been occurring a month earlier in Catalonia than in the rest of Spain, "which means that recovery is more entrenched'' in Catalonia. The agents of this recovery are internal demand (consumption and investment) and the fast pace of exports in Catalonia.

The so-called Consumer Price Index (IPC) – which represents the inflation rate – in May stood at 0.5% in Catalonia in annual terms. In April, it stood at 0.7% according to figures published on Friday by the Spanish Institute of Statistics (INE). Across the whole of Spain, inflation increased by 0.2% in May, while in April a 0.4% inflation rate was recorded, the IPC data confirms.  Core inflation – which does not take into account the prices of energy and unprocessed food –  fell from 0.3% in April to 0.0% in May. The product groups that had a greater impact on May's IPC were food and non-alcoholic beverages (-0.8%), recreation and culture (-1.1%) and hotels, cafes and restaurants (+0.5%).

The Catalan Government issued on Thursday its own calculation of the so-called fiscal balances with the latest data available, which is from 2011. In that year, Catalans funded services and infrastructure in the rest of Spain for €15 billion, equivalent to 7.7% of Catalonia's GDP or €2,055 per citizen, using the monetary flow formula. Using the tax-benefit method, Catalonia contributed €11.1 billion, equivalent to 5.7% of its GDP. The two methods are "complementary", as the Catalan Finance Minister, Andreu Mas-Colell stated, although the first one makes less assumptions and is closer to reality in times of economic crisis and high unemployment. "Catalonia is a net and generous contributor" to the whole of Spain, he said. In fact, the figures for 2011 confirm Catalonia's "sustained" negative "fiscal balance" for the 1986-2011 period, with an average 8.0% fiscal deficit. This has been for decades a very sensitive issue in Catalan and Spanish politics, and even more considering the self-determination debate.

The sale of homes in Catalonia rose 13.1% this April, compared with the same month last year, according to the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE).  April 2014 saw the sale of 3,724 properties in Catalonia, 3,334 of which were free (89.5%) and 390 protected (10.5%).  Of these transactions, 32% corresponded to newly-built flats and 68% were of existing homes.  Across Spain, sales have increased by 5.3% in annual terms, with a total of 24,968 transactions registered. Thus, Catalonia sits comfortably above the Spanish average, but was surpassed by eight other Autonomous Communities, including the Basque Country, Cantabria and the Balearic Islands, where purchases increased by 48.8%, 41 6% and 28.5%, respectively.

Throughout this week the Fira de Barcelona's Montjuic exhibition venue in the Catalan capital is transformed into a business fair for start-ups and entrepreneurs. The BizBarcelona event takes place on Wednesday the 4^th and Thursday the 5^th of June and is the second edition of this innovative business fair. The event serves several purposes and contains as many as six different areas including e-commerce, the financial markets, exports, franchises, business consulting as well as cooperation and networking. The event offers various opportunities for established and future entrepreneurs. BizBarcelona is a welcome initiative. First quarter financial reports revealed a decrease in bankruptcy proceedings, and with a high unemployment rate in Catalonia and Spain it is hoped that these new companies can create jobs.

Registered unemployment in Catalonia has dropped to 592,304 people at the end of May 2014: the first time the figure has fallen below the 600,000 mark since August 2011. According to figures released by the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security, between May 2013 and May 2014, registered unemployment dropped by 7.76 %, a reduction of 49,862 people. In only one month, unemployment decreased by 19,518 people from April to May, a 3.19 % drop. This has been the greatest monthly decrease recorded in May for 18 years. Furthermore, Catalonia has also experienced the greatest fall in unemployment of any Autonomous Community in Spain this last May, followed by the Region of Madrid.