recovery

At the end of March 2015, there were 571,655 people registered as unemployed in Catalonia. This is 9,469 fewer jobseekers in comparison with February 2015, representing a 1.63% drop. It is also the largest monthly decline in absolute terms since 1996. In annual terms, this was the biggest drop in the last two decades, as the number of jobseekers fell by 52,812 people (-8.46%). Moreover, registered unemployment in Catalonia declined for the 21^st consecutive month in annual terms. In Spain as a whole, at the end of March 2015 the number of people registered as unemployed stood at 4.45 million, with 60,214 fewer jobseekers than in February (which represents a 1.33% drop, the largest decline in 13 years). In annual terms, registered unemployment fell by 343,927 (-7.17 %), a positive sign considering that during the last 6 years it had grown in the month of March by an average of more than 35,000 people.

The GDP of Catalonia increased by 1.5% during 2014, according to the definitive figures released by the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat) on Friday. However, on the same day, the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE) published its economic growth figures for 2014 and announced that the Catalan economy had grown by 1.4% last year, the same rate as Spain. In any case, both figures are quite positive after many years of economic crisis and slowdown. In fact, 2014 has been the best year since 2007, when the Catalan economy grew by 3.2% according to the Idescat. The final figure for 2014 is higher than the provisional 1.2% growth rate previously announced. Following European Union instructions, the calculations for last year include R&D activities, as well as prostitution and trafficking of drugs and tobacco.

Catalonia exported €56.87 billion worth of industrial products last year, which represents a 3.5% increase on 2013’s figures, according to data released on Wednesday by the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat). The exports of high-technology products reached €5.58 billion, a 6.1% growth on figures from the previous year. These were also the type of product which experienced the greatest increase in exports during 2014, mostly thanks to sales from outside the European Union, which increased by 10.9%. Such an important boost also meant that sales outside the EU were larger than exports to other European Union Member States. The international sales of medium-high range products reached €28.27 billion, a 2.8% growth on 2013 figures.

The average price of houses and flats in Catalonia was 2.2% higher at the end of 2014 than at the end of the previous year, according to the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). At Spanish level, housing prices increased by 1.8% in 2014. It is the first time since 2007 that housing prices have increased both in Catalonia and Spain as a whole. In quarterly terms, the price of flats and houses in Catalonia increased by 0.6% between the end of September and end of December. At Spanish level, they increased by 0.2% in the same period. The recovery of the real estate market is a particularly strong indicator of the economic recovery in Catalonia and Spain, especially taking into account the collapse of the construction sector during the years of economic crisis.

At the end of February 2015, there were 581,124 people registered with the Catalan Public Employment Service (SOC) as being unemployed, according to figures released on Tuesday by the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security. This represents 1,645 fewer jobseekers than were registered at the end of January (582,769), a 0.28% drop. In addition, at the end of February 2015 there were 48,462 fewer registered jobseekers than a year ago, which marks the largest annual decline for registered unemployment in the last 17 years for a February month. This represents a 7.7% fall in the last 12 months. The data released on Tuesday shows an encouraging trend for Spain as a whole as well, since registered unemployment fell by 13,538 people in monthly terms, a 0.3% drop. In annual terms, the Spanish labour market posted a 6.24% drop, with 300,333 fewer registered jobseekers.

Catalan GDP grew by 1.3% in 2014 and will increase by 2.5% in 2015, claims Barcelona’s Chamber of Commerce. “The Catalan economy had a very good performance in 2014, even better than that of Spain as whole, and this acceleration will continue during 2015”, stated the President of the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce, Miquel Valls, on Wednesday. The day before, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, announced a revised economic forecast for 2015 and stated that Spain’s economy would grow by 2.4% in 2015. Valls highlighted that all the macroeconomic indicators show positive figures for the first time in the last 7 years, which makes him think that Catalonia’s “recovery from the crisis is a fact”. The industrial sector, exports, construction and job creation are the main reasons behind those predictions, which also benefit from external factors such as the fall in oil prices.

Exports from Catalonia increased by 3.1% in 2014, reaching €60.2 billion, meaning that more than 30% of the Catalan GDP is sold outside of Spain. Furthermore, Catalan exports grew more than those of Spain as a whole, which increased by 2.5% last year, reaching €240 billion. This means that 25.1% of all Spain’s exports come from Catalonia’s economy, some way ahead of the Madrid region, which produces 11.7% of Spain’s total exports. In addition, the growth rate of Catalan exports was much higher than the Eurozone average (exports from which grew by 1.8%) and also higher than that of EU Member States such as France (-0.2%), UK (-11.1%) and Italy (+2%). The figures posted this Wednesday confirm the good health of Catalonia’s export sector and the high degree of internationalisation of its economy.

For the first time in seven years, the number of houses and flats being built in Catalonia has increased. The figures for 2014 show that between 4,300 and 4,500 new properties have appeared on the market after seven years of decline. According to Lluís Marsà, President of the Promoters Association of Barcelona, the housing market is recovering due to the improving economy. Marsà says there is still one big obstacle remaining to consolidate the recovery of the sector: “The lack of bank financing which keeps people from purchasing new housing.” While this is a positive development, the housing market has still a long way to go. According to Marsà, “it will probably take 3 or 4 years to fully recover.”

Another positive figure has emerged to confirm the economic recovery after years of crisis. Catalonia’s GDP grew by 1.2% over the course of 2014, which are the best figures since 2007, before the financial crisis, according to early data released on Thursday by the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat) and the Catalan Finance Ministry. The figure is higher than the 0.9% economic growth foreseen in the Catalan Government’s budget for 2014 (approved in late 2013) but is lower than an early forecast made in March, when a 1.5% growth was predicted. Besides this growth in the Catalan economy, in Spain as a whole, the economy grew by 1.4%, according to early data released by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). Furthermore, the Catalan economy grew by 0.4% in the last quarter of 2014 compared to September figures and by 1.5% in annual terms. In the first, second, and third quarters it grew by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively (in quarterly terms).

The Catalan Government’s Deputy Minister for External Affairs, Roger Albinyana, announced the Executive’s aim to have a network of “about 50 delegations” throughout the world, representing Catalonia’s political, business and cultural interests abroad. The Catalan Government currently has 7 delegations abroad, after the new representations in Rome and Vienna start to work on Monday, when the representatives were appointed. The 5 others are located in Brussels, London, Paris, Berlin and Washington. In the coming “months and years”, the Catalan Government will continue to open new delegations. Regardless of the hypothetical independence from Spain, the Catalan Executive already has the powers to have its own External Action policy, recognised by the Catalan Statute of Autonomy from 2006, although with many limitations.

For the first time in 7 years, in 2014 Catalan shops increased their overall sales figures compared to the previous year, growing by 1.4%. Furthermore, the figures are even more positive looking at the sales in December, which grew by 7.4% compared to the same month in 2013, according to data released on Thursday by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). The Catalan figures are better than the Spanish average, both for 2014’s overall figures and for those from December. In Spain as a whole, retail increased by 0.9% last year and by 5.4% in December. The worst year for Catalonia’s retail sector was 2011, when sales dropped by 6.2% in annual terms. Other years, they stagnated, such as in 2010. 

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, assessed on Tuesday the Executive’s work during 2014, which he found to be “positive” overall, although he admitted there are still many people in great need and many social and economic challenges ahead. Referring to the current debate on whether to call early elections transformed into a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence from Spain, Mas promised immediate decisions to be announced on Thursday. Before taking the definitive decision and after weeks of admitted “confusion”, the Catalan President wants to hold a last round of talks with the main civil society organisations supporting independence and the left-wing pro-independence party ERC – with whom the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU has shared a parliamentary stability agreement for the last 2 years. “I will not slack” in the self-determination process, Mas stated.

“Unity gives us strength as a country”, stated Artur Mas, President of the Catalan Government, in the New Year’s official speech, which is broadcast annually on 30 December. Mas emphasised that “the [Spanish] State wants us to be divided”, because this way “we are weaker and more vulnerable”. The Catalan President makes this statement in the middle of the talks he is carrying out with the opposition left-wing independence party ERC in order to decide whether to run together in early elections that should be transformed into a ‘de facto’ independence referendum. However, the left-wing ERC is reluctant to run with Mas and members of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, which he leads. In his address, Mas also spoke in praise of the symbolic independence vote held on 9 November, which was “an exercise of democracy”, which “should call for dialogue and negotiation, instead of criminal prosecutions”.

The Catalan economy grew by 1.5% at the end of the 3^rd quarter of 2014 in annual terms, while at the end of June it was growing at a rate of 1.3%. Catalonia has therefore accumulated 4 consecutive quarters with positive annual economic growth. However, although the economic recovery has slowed somewhat, growth remains positive, as other figures show. In quarterly terms, Catalonia’s GDP increased by 0.3% between July and September, which represents a drop from the 0.5% growth registered for April – June and also for January – March. Meanwhile, in Spain as a whole, the economy grew by 1.6% in annual terms at the end of September and by 0.5% in quarterly terms. The European Union is posting the same growth rates as Catalonia: 1.5% in annual terms and 0.3% in quarterly figures.

The President of the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, has explained his own road map to allow citizens to vote on independence from Spain and build a new state. Junqueras proposed running in immediate early elections through different pro-independence lists with shared elements and opened to independents, in order to respect diversity. The ERC leader differed from the proposal of running through a single electoral list made by the President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas. Junqueras insisted on the need to answer to the social and economic concerns of many citizens in addition to those about independence. Should they altogether obtain a majority, the different pro-independence candidatures should form a national unity government and start building the new state from day one. He particularly emphasised the need to include those who did not voted for independence in the constituent process, which should be finally ratified in a referendum.