catalan economy

According to a study by the Professional Association of Economists of Catalonia (Col·legi d’Economistes), an independent Catalonia would obtain a much better grade from rating agencies than it currently gets, taking into account its diversified economy and higher GDP per capita than the European average. Specifically, it would obtain an A+ rating, 7 levels higher than the current BB ‘junk bond’, using Standard&Poor’s classification. The study highlights that without the current fiscal deficit with the rest of Spain, the rating would be “at least” that of the Basque Country and would enable the Catalan Government to access the international financial markets. Catalan taxpayers pay much more to the Spanish Government than the amount they get back in terms of services and infrastructure; a fiscal deficit equivalent to between €13bn and €17.5bn per year.

The low-cost airline Norwegian Air Shuttle announced it may connect Barcelona to 5 United States cities by 2016: San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Miami and Orlando. The cheapest roundtrip tickets would be less than $300, stated the Scandinavian company’s Founder and CEO, Bjorn Kjos. The announcement was made on the day Norwegian unveiled its headquarters for Southern Europe, based at Barcelona El Prat Airport. The low-cost airline has transformed the Catalan capital’s main airport into one of its main operational bases worldwide. In 2014 alone, Norwegian increased by 36% the number of passengers it transported through the airport. Last year, Barcelona El Prat broke its passenger record with 37.5 million people. The Catalan Minister for Transport, Santi Vila, stressed that Norwegian’s plans contribute to transforming Barcelona El Prat into an intercontinental hub.

Adam Price, the former Member of Westminster Parliament and Harvard University expert, believes it “would be very difficult” to argue that an independent Catalan state would not be prosperous. In fact, he thinks Catalonia “would have done better” without being part of Spain. Price is an acclaimed economist and political expert and the author of a report written for Harvard University on the economic potential of smaller countries. In the report Price examines how smaller European economies have a higher chance of gaining economic success than larger ones. Studying small European nations, Price believes, without a doubt, that an independent Catalonia would have huge potential in the long run. However, he also stresses that “transition cost” are another debate.

Catalonia posted a 19.88% unemployment rate at the end of 2014, almost 4 percentage points lower than the rate for the whole of Spain, which was 23.70%. On 31 December 2014, there were 756,500 unemployed people in Catalonia, which represents 83,000 less jobseekers than a year ago, according to the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). Despite the positive annual results, unemployment increased by 30,500 people in quarterly terms, compared to figures from the end of September 2014. Back then, Catalonia's unemployment rate was 19.10%. In terms of jobs, the Catalan economy ended 2014 with 49,300 more people in employment than at the end of 2013, reaching 3,048,100 workers. The Catalan Government is said to be "moderately optimistic" with the figures and highlighted that both 2014 and 2013 ended with less unemployed in annual terms, accumulating two consecutive years of decreased numbers.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, who is also leader of the conservative and Spanish nationalist People’s Party (PP), strongly criticised the announcement of early elections made by the Catalan President, Artur Mas, the evening before. Mas announced elections in Catalonia for 27 September this year, transformed into a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence. These elections are the only way Catalans can vote on this issue, taking into account the Spanish Government’s total opposition to even talking about self-determination demands, which were backed by an absolute majority of citizens in the last Catalan elections (held in November 2012) which themselves were already a plebiscite on having a legal vote on independence. However, as opposed to the British Government, Rajoy refused to even discuss these demands, has not made any concessions, and has showed total opposition, which has even involved the criminal prosecution of the Catalan President.

Catalonia ended 2014 with an annual inflation rate of -0.7%, the lowest rate since 1978, when records for the Spain’s Autonomous Communities began, according to data published on Thursday by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). The previous month, at the end of November, the annual consumer price index registered a rate of -0.3% in Catalonia. In the whole of Spain, the annual inflation rate at the end of December 2014 was -1%. This is the lowest rate registered since December 1961, when comparable data started to be collected. At the end of November, prices were decreasing by -0.4% in annual terms in Spain as a whole. Therefore, both in Catalonia and in Spain overall, last year ended with a significant price drop, mostly due to falling fuel prices.

Despite a decrease in Russian visitors, Catalonia increased the number of international tourists it hosted during 2014. Some 16.7 million foreigners travelled to Catalonia last year, which sets a new historic record. In addition, it represents a 7.2% increase on 2013 figures. International visitors spent more than €15 billion during their stay, 6.1% more than in 2013. Therefore, foreign tourism accounted for some 7.5% of Catalonia’s entire GDP during 2014. Each tourist spent an average of €900 during their stay. The Catalan Minister for Business and Employment, Felip Puig, presented the figures on Wednesday and emphasised that the objective for future years is not so much to increase the number of tourists but rather to increase the revenue which they bring in. 

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, assessed on Tuesday the Executive’s work during 2014, which he found to be “positive” overall, although he admitted there are still many people in great need and many social and economic challenges ahead. Referring to the current debate on whether to call early elections transformed into a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence from Spain, Mas promised immediate decisions to be announced on Thursday. Before taking the definitive decision and after weeks of admitted “confusion”, the Catalan President wants to hold a last round of talks with the main civil society organisations supporting independence and the left-wing pro-independence party ERC – with whom the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU has shared a parliamentary stability agreement for the last 2 years. “I will not slack” in the self-determination process, Mas stated.

At the end of 2014, there were 575,948 people registered with the Catalan Public Employment Service (SOC) as being unemployed, according to figures released this week by the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security. This represents 48,924 fewer jobseekers than were on the register at the end of 2013; a 7.83% drop achieved during the last 12 months. During 2014, registered unemployment dropped by 5.39% in the whole of Spain. There were 4,447,711 people registered as unemployed throughout the country, which represents 253,627 fewer jobseekers than a year ago, the largest reduction in unemployment since 1998. 

The Catalan economy grew by 1.5% at the end of the 3^rd quarter of 2014 in annual terms, while at the end of June it was growing at a rate of 1.3%. Catalonia has therefore accumulated 4 consecutive quarters with positive annual economic growth. However, although the economic recovery has slowed somewhat, growth remains positive, as other figures show. In quarterly terms, Catalonia’s GDP increased by 0.3% between July and September, which represents a drop from the 0.5% growth registered for April – June and also for January – March. Meanwhile, in Spain as a whole, the economy grew by 1.6% in annual terms at the end of September and by 0.5% in quarterly terms. The European Union is posting the same growth rates as Catalonia: 1.5% in annual terms and 0.3% in quarterly figures.

The Catalan Government has issued the Bureaucratic Simplification Law, which should speed up the creation of new private businesses. The new bill should make things easier for 75% of new business initiatives, according to the Catalan Minister for Business and Employment, Felip Puig. He explained that entrepreneurs carrying out innocuous or low-risk activities will be able to create a new company and start working within 48 hours, after having signed a responsibility statement, registered the new company and made sure that their premises respect all the regulations. Therefore, it will be the entrepreneurs' responsibility to make sure that the new business respects the legal framework, setting up "a framework of trust" between the entrepreneurs and the Government, said Puig. Once the business activity launches, public bodies may run inspections to make sure everything is in order.

For the second time this year, prices have decreased in Catalonia in annual terms. By the end of November, inflation dropped by -0.1% compared to 12 months ago, mostly due to a drop in electricity and fuel prices, according to figures released on Friday by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). In monthly terms, prices stagnated over November compared to the October ones. In the whole of Spain, prices dropped by -0.1% in monthly terms and by -0.4% in annual terms. Spain is now accumulating 5 consecutive months of negative inflation rates. The INE explains this annual drop by the price decrease of housing (which includes electricity), transport (which includes fuels) and food and non-alcoholic drinks. In November electricity prices only increased by 0.7% in annual terms, while they grew by 1.7% in October. Fuel prices dropped by -1.8% in November, while they had only decreased by -1.1% in October.

The President of the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, has explained his own road map to allow citizens to vote on independence from Spain and build a new state. Junqueras proposed running in immediate early elections through different pro-independence lists with shared elements and opened to independents, in order to respect diversity. The ERC leader differed from the proposal of running through a single electoral list made by the President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas. Junqueras insisted on the need to answer to the social and economic concerns of many citizens in addition to those about independence. Should they altogether obtain a majority, the different pro-independence candidatures should form a national unity government and start building the new state from day one. He particularly emphasised the need to include those who did not voted for independence in the constituent process, which should be finally ratified in a referendum.

According to the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security, the number of unemployed people registered in Catalonia stood at 581,652 in November, representing a decrease of 0.93% since October, with 5,481fewer people without jobs. In terms of the unemployment data, last November was the best one in Catalonia since the data series began in 1996, 18 years ago. In annual terms, unemployment is down again and marks 17 consecutive months of decreases, though with the November decline this makes it an -8.8% decline this year, the most extreme fall since June 2000 (which was -9.25%). Across the whole of Spain, November has also shown the best unemployment figures on historical record, with 14,688 less people unemployed. Within Catalonia, unemployment fell in Barcelona and Lleida, but increased in Girona and Tarragona. 

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, proposed the next steps in Catalonia’s self-determination process: early elections to the Catalan Parliament and, if a single pro-independence list get an absolute majority, negotiations to reach full independence in 18 months. Such a list should be formed by independent personalities and recognised professionals, who should commit to only run once, with traditional parties adopting a secondary role. After negotiating independence and building the new state’s basic structures, a referendum to ratify the new state’s genesis and constituent elections would be called, in which traditional parties would again be running separately. Mas said he was ready to be the front-runner or to end such a list, the latter case ruling out the possibility of his being re-elected. However, he will only call early elections if parties and civil society organisations transform them into such a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence. After years of peaceful citizen mobilisations, now “it is time for the definitive vote” and the “only” way of doing it is through early elections, he said.