71% of Catalans want to hold the 9th of November independence consultation vote
Another opinion poll has shown that a wide majority of Catalans want to hold a self-determination vote to determine their relation with Spain. This time, the question was not a general one but it specifically asked about the 9th of November's consultation vote, which the Spanish authorities completely oppose. Despite the controversy and Madrid's attempts to block it, 70.8% of Catalans would back November's vote, while 22.9% would oppose it. Moreover, the left-wing independence party ERC would win the next Catalan elections with 19.8% of the votes, while the governing centre-right pro-Catalan state coalition CiU would come in second place (13.1%) and the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) would be 3rd (5.8%). The largest group of voters are the undecided (23%) and 10.4% would abstain. The People's Party (PP), running the Spanish Government, plummeted to the 8th place (2.1%).
Barcelona (ACN).- Once again, an opinion poll has shown that a wide majority of Catalan citizens want to hold a self-determination vote in order to determine their collective political future and their relationship with Spain. This time, the question was not a general one but it specifically asked about the consultation vote called for the 9th of November, which the Spanish authorities completely oppose. Despite the controversy and the Spanish Government's attempts to block it, 70.8% of Catalans would support November's vote, while 22.9% would oppose it, according to a poll compiled by the Centre of Opinion Studies (CEO), which is linked to the Catalan Government. Over the last two years, all the published polls, on generic questions about the issue, have shown that around 75% of Catalans want to hold an independence vote, without specifying the exact question, date and level of agreement with the Spanish Government. This Friday's poll shows that, despite Madrid's ban, the wide majority of Catalans who want to hold next month's vote is similar to the number of people who want to hold a self-determination vote in general terms. For the poll released this Friday, 800 people were interviewed on the phone between the 19th and 25th of September, a time when the Catalan Parliament had approved the Law on Consultation Votes, the Catalan President was about to call the 9th of November's vote and the Spanish Government had already announced it would appeal against both measures and that the vote would be stopped by the Constitutional Court. The margin of error was 3.46%. In addition, the poll also shows that the left-wing independence party ERC would win the next Catalan elections with 19.8% of the votes, while the governing centre-right pro-Catalan state coalition CiU would come in second place with 13.1% and the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) would be third with 5.8% direct support. The largest group of voters are the undecided, who represent 23% of Catalans, while 10.4% would abstain. The People's Party (PP), which runs the Spanish Government, would come in the 8th place with 2.1% support, behind the newly created alternative left party Podemos (3.9%), which would be 6th.
70.8% of Catalans want to vote on the 9th of November despite Madrid's ban
The CEO poll did not ask people whether they would vote for independence or not, but simply if they supported the call to hold a self-determination consultation vote on the 9th of November, with the corresponding two-part question: "Do you want Catalonia to become a State? If yes, do you want this State to become independent?" People answering "yes" to the first part would back granting greater powers of self-rule to Catalonia and would support the recognition of its sovereignty. The second question would show whether they would vote for independence or not. Those answering "yes" to the first part but "no" to the second would back a Catalan state with a federal or confederated Spain, but not independence. Those answering "yes" to both questions would vote for independence and those voting "no" to the first one would oppose granting Catalonia greater powers and also independence.
70.8% of Catalans would like to hold such a consultation on the day proposed by a two-third majority of the Catalan Parliament, despite the Spanish Government having announced that this vote will not happen. Those against the 9th of November's vote would represent 22.9% of the population. Lastly, with 6.4% , are people who do not know or preferred not to answer the question.
Regarding the people voting for the parties supporting November's vote, 97% of them support the initiative (voters of the CiU, ERC and the Catalan green socialist and post-communist coalition ICV-EUiA). The percentage is 95.7% among the voters of the alternative and radical independence party CUP. In addition, 67.7% of the voters of the recently-created Madrid-based and alternative left party Podemos would like to hold such a consultation vote. Voters of the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) are quite divided on the issue, although a majority of them would oppose November's vote (56.5%) – as the party leadership – while 41.3% would back it. Finally, 61.9% of the people voting for the populist and Spanish nationalist party Ciutadans would oppose the vote (while 28.6% of them would back it) and 100% of the voters of the People's Party (PP) would oppose November's vote.
Pro-independence ERC would win the next Catalan elections, while the PP plummets to the 8th place
In addition, the poll also asked citizens about how they would directly vote, if there were elections to the Catalan Parliament, which is quite a likely scenario in the current situation. The survey confirmed what previous polls have been pointing out over the last few months: the left-wing pro-independence party ERC would win the elections for the first time since the 1930s, overtaking the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition (CiU), which has been the most voted for party in almost all the Catalan Parliament elections since 1980. The ERC would get 19.8% of the intended direct votes while CiU would get the 13.1%. 18% of people who voted for the CiU in 2012 would now vote for the ERC. In fact, only 42.4% of those who voted for the CiU in 2012 are certain that they would do so again, since many are undecided. According to the CEO Director, Jordi Argelaguet, this trend could be partially explained by the effect of the fiscal fraud confession of the CiU's founder, Jordi Pujol, who chaired the Catalan Government between 1980 and 2003.
Another significant figure is that of those who are undecided: the largest group of citizens, representing 23% of the population. In addition, 10.4% of the voters would abstain. Therefore, with both figures combined: 33.4% of citizens do not know who to vote for or would not go to the polling station.
The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), who used to be one of the two largest parties in Catalonia in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s (together with the CiU), would continue its more minor role by getting third, as it already did in 2012 for the first time. Only 5.8% of the voters would directly vote for the PSC, which is federated to the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE). In addition, the C's confirmed the growth it reached in 2012 and got closer to the PSC, amassing 5.2% of intended direct votes, and becoming the 4th largest party in the Catalan Parliament (currently it is the 6th). The C's would grow from voters moving from the PSC and PP. In fact, the PP, which runs the Spanish Government, confirmed its marginalisation in Catalonia, by getting only 2.1% of the intended votes, passing from the 4th to the 8th rank.
Lastly, the arrival of the Madrid-based alternative left party Podemos (Ps), which could run in the Catalan Parliament elections for the first time, has had an impact on the post-communist parties' support. Podemos would get 3.9% of direct support, becoming Catalonia's 6th party. Ps support would come from 11.5% of those who voted for the ICV-EUiA in 2012, by 13.2% of those who had voted for the CUP and 7.8% of the PSC voters, as well as from many people who abstained in 2012. The ICV-EUiA would not be overtaken by Ps and would continue to be the 5th largest group at the Catalan Parliament with 4% of direct votes. Finally, the CUP would get 2.9% of direct support, and continue to be the 7th largest party although it would not be the smallest group at the Parliament, since the PP would only have 2.1% of the votes.