Politics

According to the exit polls, the parties supporting independence would obtain between 58% and 64% of the seats in the Catalan Parliament in the elections with the highest voter turnout ever. The Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) would win the elections again but it might lose some support, falling far short of an absolute majority. The Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) would double its results, becoming the second largest force in the Parliament for the first time ever. Support for the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) would plummet and it could lose 40% of its seats. The People’s Party (PP) might stagnate or even lose 2 seats. The Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA) might stagnate or increase by 2 seats. The anti-Catalan nationalist party could double its results but will probably remain a small party. The radical left-wing and pro-independence CUP could enter the Parliament.

Nobody doubts that the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) will win the elections again, but it is not clear if it will obtain an absolute majority or even lose some MPs. However, these elections are not so much about parties but they have de facto turned into a plebiscite on the Catalan peoples’ right to self-determination and the organisation of an independence referendum. If the parties defending the organisation of a self-determination referendum and independence clearly win the elections as expected, Spain would face its deepest political crisis of the last three decades. Knowing this, the campaign has been the tensest ever, including dirty tricks being played by Spanish nationalists against the CiU. However, many citizens will also vote while thinking about the last two years of budget cuts. Thus, left-wing parties supporting independence are likely to get more support.

The incumbent President of the Catalan Government and the main CiU candidate, Artur Mas, is asking for massive support in order to have the strength to negotiate the organisation of an independence referendum. The CiU is focusing the re-election campaign on the self-determination process, heading away from the unpopular budget cuts it has been implementing over the last two years. The CiU is currently Catalonia’s largest party, running most of the public offices. It has 62 MPs in the 135-seat Parliament and gained 38.43% of the votes in the 2010 elections. Polls give them between 61 and 71 seats, in the best scenario obtaining an absolute majority. However, the CiU campaign has been completely derailed nine days before the elections by the Spanish nationalist newspaper El Mundo, which accused Mas and other top CiU leaders of corruption. These accusations turned out to be false and Mas is now accusing the Spanish Government of playing dirty tricks.

For the last 30 years, the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) have been Catalonia’s two main political forces, running the main public institutions and getting electoral results far higher than the rest of the parties. However, in 2006, the PSC started to decline and in the last Catalan elections it obtained its worst results ever, with 28 MPs and 18.38% of the votes. However, the party seems to be continuing its nose-dive and polls predict it could get between 22 and 15 MPs on the 25th of November, which could mean falling from being the second to third or even fourth-largest party in the Catalan Parliament. After a leadership change last December, the party led by Pere Navarro continued to marginalise its more pro-Catalan-identity members in top positions. The PSC defends a federal and pluri-national Spain, while recognising Catalonia’s nationhood.

As opposed to the rest of Spain, the PP is a small party within Catalonia. In the last Catalan elections, they got their best results ever, increasing from 14 to 18 seats in the 135-seat Catalan Parliament and obtaining 12.37% of the votes. In the last elections, the Catalan branch of the PP , led by Alícia Sánchez-Camacho, focused on immigration and the economic crisis. Now, while they are running the Spanish Government and have negotiated many austerity measures in Catalonia, the PP is focusing on fighting the “independence delirium”, as they call it. All its leaders, including Rajoy, are participating intensively in the campaign. The PP presents itself as the “useful vote” to stop Catalonia’s self-determination process, as they think of Spain as not being a pluri-national state. Polls give them between 16 and 19 MPs and they could become the second largest party in the Catalan Parliament.

With 10 MPs and 7.37% of the votes in the last Catalan elections, the Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA) has been the most vocal opposition to the Catalan Government’s austerity measures, despite being the fourth largest party in the Catalan Parliament. ICV-EUiA is trying to attract those who participated in the numerous anti-budget cut demonstrations, as well as those who attended 15-M Movement protests. Polls indicate that the ICV-EUiA might increase their support but are not conclusive as to what extent, as it seems they could obtain between 10 and 16 MPs. Besides the social and environmental agenda, the ICV-EUiA openly supports Catalonia’s self-determination right and the organisation of an independence referendum next term. However, Joan Herrera refuses to say if he personally supports the push for independence, as he says it would depend on the alternatives offered.

ERC, now led by Oriol Junqueras, is facing the next Catalan elections aware they will significantly increase their number of MPs and knowing that they are likely to play an essential role in Catalonia’s politics in the next term. After renovating their leadership and with a moderately-pitched speech, ERC might increase the current 10 MPs – which was their worst result in 20 years – to 16 or even 19 MPs, according to the latest polls. Furthermore, depending on the results obtained by the pro-Spain unity parties PSC and PP, ERC might become the second largest group in the Catalan Parliament. In any case, as they are the party that historically supports Catalonia’s independence, ERC will offer its support to the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) to organise a self-determination referendum.

Solidaritat per la Indepedència (SI) started in 2010, defending a fast track towards independence and profiting from the crisis of the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC). SI grew around the magnetic Joan Laporta, former President of FC Barcelona. In 2010, they obtained 3.29% of the votes and 4 MPs in the Catalan Parliament. Laporta quit the party and Alfons López Tena is the current candidate for Catalan President. With a demagogical speech, they have exclusively focused on asking for a unilateral independence declaration. Now, SI faces the challenge of remaining in the Parliament, when the traditional Catalan nationalist parties are also supporting independence. According to the polls, SI is not likely to have enough votes to stay in the Parliament.

With 3.39% of the votes in the last elections and 3 MPs in the Catalan Parliament, polls indicate that the number of Ciutadans’s MPs could double in the next elections, resulting in between 6 and 8 MPs, and forming its own parliamentary group for the first time. In its 6 years of existence, it has mainly focused on attacking the policies defending the Catalan language. Now, clearly opposed to Catalan independence and organising a self-determination referendum, C’s is lifting the banner of Spanish unity to attract voters. Ciutadans is seen by many as a populist party, with a conflict-driven speech criticising Catalonia’s political class and offering easy solutions to complex social problems.

Elections for the Catalan Parliament, which will elect the next President of the Catalan Government, are to be held on the 25th of November. The two-week electoral campaign has started, with Catalonia’s independence as the main topic of debate, while opposition parties are trying to put the budget cuts and the recovery from the economic crisis upfront. On Thursday, minutes before midnight, political parties officially kicked off the campaign, although the race started a month and a half ago, when the Catalan President, Artur Mas, called for early elections. Surveys indicate that Mas’ party, the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), will win the elections again, with improved results and close to an absolute majority. Catalonia’s political map may change with the Socialist Party likely to drop.

Just before the Catalan election campaign kicks off, the survey centres run by the Spanish and the Catalan governments have both issued their own polls. 57% of Catalans would vote for independence in a referendum, according to the Catalan survey. In June the percentage was 51%. The Spanish survey did not include the question. Both polls agree that the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – currently running the Catalan Government – would gain more votes, close to obtaining an absolute majority. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), which is against independence and already obtained its worst results ever in 2010, would lose between 30% and 45% of MPs. The People’s Party (PP) would obtain similar results, but might become the party in second place. The Left-Wing Independence Party (ERC) would increase its representation by 40% to 70% and might become the third party.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, held a debate in Brussels, at an event organised by the think tank Friends of Europe. Mas praised Catalonia’s European and democratic traditions. He talked about the self-determination process he is leading, which will be “scrupulously democratic”, “absolutely peaceful”, “demonstrably transparent”, “with an ample majority” and “within the framework of the European Union”. “What I want for Catalonia is for it to be its own State that must, necessarily, share interdependencies within a more united and stronger Europe”, he stated. If Catalonia could not remain in the EU, he would still ask the Catalan people about their future, “as it is the most important thing”. The opposition parties criticised Mas’ trip before the start of the electoral campaign.

The Catalan Government awarded Acciona’s joint venture the contract to manage Aigües Ter Llobregat (ATLL), the public company supplying drinkable water to an area of 5 million people. Acciona, a Brazilian investment bank, and other companies will pay €300 million in 2012 and €700 million within the next 50 years to run the concession. Privatising ATLL was a measure announced months ago, as part of the Catalan Government’s austerity plan to reduce its deficit in order to meet the imposed deficit targets. According to the press release, Acciona’s joint venture has been awarded the 50 year contract because “it offers a better price for the water” than the rival group of companies lead by the Catalan Agbar.

646,306 people were unemployed in Catalonia at the end of October. This is the highest figure since the start of this data series in the year 2000. Over the last month, unemployment in Catalonia grew by 2.19%, while a year ago, in October 2011, it grew by 2.43%. However, October 2012 was the third consecutive month with an increase in the number of people registered on the SOC lists. For the whole of Spain, unemployment increased by 128,242 people in October and reached 4,833,521 individuals without a job who were searching for a new one. Regarding geographical distribution, unemployment increased in all of the four Catalan provinces.