poll

Cadena Ser, Spain’s main radio station, has published an opinion poll on Catalonia’s National Day which points out that 52.3% of Catalans would vote “yes” in an independence referendum, while 24.1% would vote against it. It also reveals that 80.5% of Catalans want to hold a self-determination referendum. Furthermore, 59.7% of Catalans would still cast their vote even if the referendum was declared illegal. The opinion poll also indicates that 46.8% of Catalans would continue to support independence even if the Spanish Government agreed to grant Catalonia a fiscal scheme similar to that of the Basque Country, guaranteeing more financial resources. In this hypothesis, 27% would be against independence. Finally, the poll also indicated that, if elections were to be held in Catalonia, the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) would win with 22.1% of the votes, while the current governing Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) would come second with 20.7%.

This coming 11^th of September – which is Catalonia’s National Day – pro-independence supporters have organised a gigantic human chain called the ‘Catalan Way Towards Independence’ that will cross Catalonia from North to South stretching 400 km and passing through some of the main cities, such as Barcelona, Girona and Tarragona. After having organised the 1.5 million-strong demonstration of 2012, the civil society platform Catalan National Assembly is preparing a new massive demonstration that calls for independence from Spain. This year’s peculiar demonstration is inspired by the ‘Baltic Way’ of 1989, which gathered 2 million people forming a 670 km-long human chain crossing Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The ‘Baltic Way’ was organised exactly 24 years ago and issued a manifesto that read “a common European home can only by set up if all European nations are granted a free right to self-determination”.

According to an opinion poll from the Catalan Polling Centre (CEO), the Catalan political landscape would change, since the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) would would become the largest force in the Catalan Parliament after doubling the number of its MPs compared to the electoral results from last November. Meanwhile, the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), which has been running the Catalan Government since 2010, would continue to lose support. However, parties supporting Catalonia’s independence increase their total support while the number of those defending Spain’s unity drops. The CEO thinks the data show that over the last 9 months, the support for independence remains “stable” in a hypothetical referendum, ranging between 54% and 57%. However, those opposing independence grew from 20.7% to 23.4%, while the number of undecided citizens decreased to 15%.

The latest political poll issued by the Catalan Survey Centre (CEO), published every three months, shows that 54.7% of those interviewed would vote “yes” in an independence referendum, while 20.7% would vote “no” and 17.0% would abstain. Three months ago, the “yes” option was backed by 57% of the interviewees while in February 2012 it was only backed by 44%. Besides, 46.4% of citizens would support an independent Catalan state as their first choice, which represents an increase of 2.1 percentage points in three months and a 17.4 point increase in one year. 22.4% would prefer a federal Spain, 20.7% the current situation and 4.4% Catalonia being a region within a more centralised Spain.

A poll taken by the Catalan Survey Institute points out that only 19.9% of Catalans would be against organising a referendum asking if Catalonia should be a new independent European state. 6% would be undecided. The poll also reflects electoral preferences in the next Catalan elections, scheduled on 25th November. 26.3% of citizens would vote for the ruling Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), which would clearly win the elections. However, those undecided represent 34.6% of the people interviewed. The votes for the main opposition party in Catalonia, the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), would plummet to only 3.1%. The parties clearly supporting the self-determination (CiU, ERC and ICV-EUiA) would become Catalonia’s first, second and third parties.

Catalonia has a different political landscape than the rest of Spain, and it is where the People’s Party (PP) always gets its worst results. Polls indicate that in the next Spanish elections, the People’s Party will be very far from winning in Catalonia but it could get its best results winning between 12 and 14 seats. Looking to ensure an absolute majority in Spain, the PP’s leader Mariano Rajoy plans to better the party’s results in Catalonia and therefore decided to start the official campaign in a town from Barcelona Metropolitan Area.

However, if the question is open to other options, 33% would prefer a Catalan State within a Federal Spain, 31.8% the current situation as an Autonomous Community and 25.5% want Catalonia to be an independent nation. The poll results also show that 75.5% of Catalans want the Catalan Government to raise all the taxes, while only 18.2% prefer the current system through which the Spanish Government raises the main taxes. The poll was compiled by the Catalan Polling Centre (CEO), which is managed by the Catalan Government.

Recent polls and the massive demonstration in Barcelona on 10 July suggest a widening gap between citizens in Spain and Catalonia since the cuts in the Statute