Poll: Pro-independence ERC Catalan frontrunner ahead of Spanish election campaign

Survey shows 75% of support for a republic and 78% back a referendum; 48.4% would vote for Yes to independence, while 44.1% for No

ERC leader Oriol Junqueras on a screen after party member Gabriel Rufián reads a letter written in prison on June 30 2018 (by ACN)
ERC leader Oriol Junqueras on a screen after party member Gabriel Rufián reads a letter written in prison on June 30 2018 (by ACN) / ACN

ACN | Barcelona

April 5, 2019 12:47 PM

Pro-independence Esquerra Republicana (ERC) party is shown as taking the lead among Catalan parties, with 14-15 seats for the upcoming Spanish elections, according to polls in Catalonia.

The Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) details that ERC would, in that case, surpass the unionist Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), who would have 11 to 13 seats in Congress.

New party may gain a seat

The Catalunya en Comú (CatECP) in-between-blocs would come in in third place among parties from Catalonia (7-9 seats), followed by the Junts per Catalunya, the governing partner of ERC (5-7 seats).

Coming in with the fewest members of congress are the Catalan branches of two unionist parties, Ciutadans (Cs, with 5-6 seats) and the People’s Party (PP, with 2).

A new party forecast as coming in to the Spanish congress for the April 28 elections is the Republican Front coalition led by Former Catalunya en Comú MP Albano Dante Fachin, with 1 seat.

Socialist party frontrunner at the Spanish level

Polls at the Spanish level show the ruling Socialist party surpassing PP as the largest group in Congress, with Ciutadans coming third, followed by Unidas Podemos (including CatECP).

With far-right Vox set to make big gains, a conservative coalition with PP and Cs could emerge as Spain's next government. The Socialists and Unidas Podemos are unlikely to win a majority, and would need the support of Basque and Catalan pro-independence parties.

While the Socialist Pedro Sànchez came to power thanks to pro-independence parties, who helped him oust former president Mariano Rajoy in a no-confidence vote, their alliance collapsed in the budget negotiations, leading to a snap election.

Results for a theoretical Catalan election

Meanwhile, in a separate poll forecasting what would happen if new elections were to be called in Catalonia, ERC was also shown to be the favorite (with 40 to 43 seats). Ciutadans would fall from first to second place with 28-29 MPs, followed by JxCat with 22 to 24 seats.

PSC would meanwhile up its chances with 21-23 MPs, while both far-left CUP and CatECP would both get 8 seats, and PP would either keep its 4 seats or drop down to 3. 

Catalan independence support

Support for Catalan independence has grown by 1.2 points and now stands at 48.4%, while people in favor of staying in Spain has remained the same at 44.1%. 

The same study also showed that 78.7% of Catalans are in favor of a referendum to decide on independence, with 14.8% against holding any sort of vote on self-determination. 

In total, 75.9% of those surveyed said they preferred their country to be a republic, while 12.3% backed having a monarchy.