spanish elections

Although the exact date is not yet clear, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has assured that he will hold Spanish elections “in December”, “once the general budget for next year is approved” as it “creates certainty and stability”, he added. In an interview with Cadena Cope Radio this Thursday, Rajoy also admitted that in the event that the conservative People’s Party, which he leads, does not gain an absolute majority in the upcoming elections it would be necessary “to find this majority with other parties”. Nevertheless, he highlighted that since 1977 it has always been the party that topped the polls which has ruled the Spanish Executive afterwards. The Spanish elections will be held after the 27-S Catalan elections and its result may influence the approach of the different parties and their proposals regarding Catalonia.

The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, has assured that her position on the process of sovereignty in Catalonia is "very similar" to that of the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, addressing the issue at a bilateral summit held on Monday and Tuesday. In a joint press conference, Merkel emphasised the necessity to "respect" EU treaties that "guarantee the sovereignty and territorial integrity of each state". "It is very important that international law is respected. Here there is no difference", she said in response to journalists' questions. For his part, Rajoy guaranteed that whilst he is Prime Minister, there will be "no split" between Catalonia and Spain.

On Friday, the Catalan Green-Socialist party ICV and alternative left-wing Podem (Catalan branch of the Spanish party Podemos), reached an agreement to run together in the Spanish elections, after already having agreed a few days ago to run together in the next Catalan elections (scheduled for 27 September). The Spanish elections have not been called yet, but are expected to be held later this year, according to Barcelona-based newspaper 'El Periódico' and sources from the two political parties. In late June, the leaders of ICV, Joan Herrera, and Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, already announced that the two parties intended to participate as a coalition in both the Catalan and Spanish elections. They are to run in both ballots under the name 'Catalunya Sí que es pot' (in English, 'Catalonia yes we can'), adding the word 'Podem' at the beginning of the name for the Spanish elections.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, has not ruled out the possibility of holding the Spanish General Elections – which should normally be held in late November or early December – at the same time as the Catalan Elections, which are to take place on 27 September. The Catalan Elections are to be transformed into a 'de facto' plebiscite on independence and have been called a year early, as the only option left in order to hold a self-determination vote, after Rajoy's total opposition to any such vote and his failing to even talk about it. During the last few weeks, the possibility of Rajoy calling the Spanish Elections early in order to ensure that they coincide with the Catalan vote (with the aim of partially neutralising the plebiscite effect) has been widely discussed. However, Rajoy also said that he would like to hold them "at the end of the year".

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, who is also leader of the conservative and Spanish nationalist People’s Party (PP), strongly criticised the announcement of early elections made by the Catalan President, Artur Mas, the evening before. Mas announced elections in Catalonia for 27 September this year, transformed into a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence. These elections are the only way Catalans can vote on this issue, taking into account the Spanish Government’s total opposition to even talking about self-determination demands, which were backed by an absolute majority of citizens in the last Catalan elections (held in November 2012) which themselves were already a plebiscite on having a legal vote on independence. However, as opposed to the British Government, Rajoy refused to even discuss these demands, has not made any concessions, and has showed total opposition, which has even involved the criminal prosecution of the Catalan President.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, has announced early elections to be held on the 27^th of September this year, which will become a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence from Spain. Before then, the Catalan Government and Parliament will continue to develop some basic state structures, such as Catalonia’s own tax administration and Social Security system. The governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU and the opposition left-wing pro-independence party ERC have now “rebuilt” their parliamentary stability pact for the current term after weeks of public disagreements and confusion over the next steps of the self-determination process. After a long meeting on Wednesday evening between Mas, the ERC’s President Oriol Junqueras and representatives from the main civil society organisations supporting independence, they have also agreed on running separately but sharing the same road map to build an independent state from the day after the elections, if a majority of Catalans vote for this option. 

For the first time in the last two years, the number of people opposing independence from Spain would be more than those supporting the separation, according to an opinion poll released on Friday by the Catalan Government’s Survey Institute (CEO). 45.3% of the interviewees would oppose independence, while 44.5% would support it. According to the CEO’s Director, Jordi Argelaguet, these figures indicate “a technical draw”, since there is only a 9-person difference out of the 1,000 interviews carried out in early December, following the 9 November’s symbolic self-determination vote. However, the figures show two important trends: the higher mobilisation of citizens opposing independence and the slight decrease of support for independence. 7.5% of those interviewed would be undecided and 2.8% preferred not to answer the question.

Catalonia is the only autonomous community where the Socialist Party has clearly won, but has lost around 35% of its MPs, according to the exit poll released by TV3. The People’s Party (PP) will remain Catalonia’s third biggest force, behind the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalists (CiU), who will increase their share by some 40%. The exit polls released at 20.00 CET, when the polls closed, indicate an absolute majority for the PP and an historical defeat for the Socialists throughout Spain. The PP will get between 181 and 185 MPs, when the absolute majority is 176 seats. The election day has been calm, with a lower turnout than in the 2008 elections, particularly in Catalonia.

Catalonia and the Basque Country might be the only Autonomous Communities in Spain without a victory for the People’s Party (PP). The Socialists are likely to win once again in Catalonia, but they risk loosing 40% of their seats. If they slump even further then they risk being overtaken by the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) or even the PP. A quiet electoral campaign has come to an end, with three main unknown answers: if the Socialist party will get its worst results over the past few decades, if they will also lose in their stronghold of Catalonia, and how the international financial markets will react in the coming days.

In Catalonia, the PP would get its best results in history, and could become the second most voted party in the territory, a position disputed with the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU). The Socialist Party, which has won the Spanish elections in Catalonia for the last 32 years, might still win, but it will be a close battle with the CiU and the PP. A major surprise in Catalonia cannot be completely ruled out. In any case, on the contrary to previous elections and as it seemed some weeks ago, votes in Catalonia might not change the final results and the PP’s absolute majority would not depend on its Catalan supports.

Next November 20th, Spaniards will vote for the new Spanish Parliament. They will elect one of the lists running in their province, which is their constituency. Catalans will thus elect the lists running in the four Catalan provinces. Therefore, they will not directly elect Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba (PSOE) or Mariano Rajoy (PP), but their party candidates in Catalonia, as well as parties only running in Catalonia, such as the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) or the Catalan Green Socialist Coalition (ICV-EUiA).

According to polls, Catalonia might be essential to ensure the absolute majority to the People’s Party (PP) or to save the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) from getting its worst results ever. The Socialists risk loosing more than a third of its seats in Catalonia while the PP, far from winning in Catalonia, could get its best results. Catalan nationalists ‘Convergència i Unió’, who are the third largest group in the Spanish Parliament, could win the elections in Catalonia, ending the ten Socialist Party victories in a row in these elections.

Catalonia has a different political landscape than the rest of Spain, and it is where the People’s Party (PP) always gets its worst results. Polls indicate that in the next Spanish elections, the People’s Party will be very far from winning in Catalonia but it could get its best results winning between 12 and 14 seats. Looking to ensure an absolute majority in Spain, the PP’s leader Mariano Rajoy plans to better the party’s results in Catalonia and therefore decided to start the official campaign in a town from Barcelona Metropolitan Area.

In addition, he warned about an ongoing re-centralisation process, going against the consensus of 1978, and whose next step “will be the electoral reform”, which “will sentence us [Catalan nationalists] as galley slaves”. The day that King Juan Carlos was ratifying with his signature the amendment to the Spanish Constitution, one of the main law’s six founding fathers criticised the reform. Miquel Roca, who represented the views of the Catalan nationalists in 1978 criticised a reform approved only with the support of the two main parties in Spain, both defending centralist stances.

Many in Catalonia fear that a constitutional limitation to public deficit and debt may dramatically reduce Catalonia’s already restricted fiscal autonomy, which would not only affect self-governance but also the possibility to pay for investments or public services not guaranteed by the Spanish State. The fear goes beyond Catalan party boundaries regarding the second amendment to the Spanish Constitution, which would be approved through an “urgent procedure”, almost without public and political debate. Catalan senators could force a call for a binding referendum.