Support for Catalan independence plummets among youth over last decade

Support for independence among Catalans aged 18 to 24 has plummeted from 47% to 27% over the past decade – primarily in favor of the status quo: Catalonia as an autonomous community within Spain. 

The 18-24 age group has seen the most dramatic drop in support for independence, falling from over half in 2013, to roughly 50% in 2015, and now to under 30%, according to surveys by the Centre for Opinion Studies (CEO).

Among the population as a whole, those who would vote "yes" in an independence referendum has stabilized at around 40%, one year into Salvador Illa's term as Catalonia's first pro-Spanish unity president in over a decade.

Catalonia's future

In the latest CEO survey on Catalonia's constitutional future, published in July, the two most popular options were maintaining Catalonia as an autonomous community, and independence, each with almost 32% support. Catalonia as a federal state within Spain has the support of around 22%, while about 7% support Catalonia becoming a region without autonomy.

Among young people, support for autonomy clearly outweighs support for independence – by more than six percentage points in the 18–24 age group and by ten points among those aged 35–49.

An independent Catalonia is the preferred option for just 27.5% and 26.2% in those age brackets, respectively – about five points below the overall average.

People aged 50 to 64 are the most likely to support separation from Spain, with 34.6% in favor, more than those who prefer the status quo (28.1%).

Independence: Yes or No?

When asked directly, "Do you want Catalonia to become an independent state?", the "yes" vote is now at one of the lowest levels of the past decade, with 40.2% support, four points less than in 2015 and nearly ten points below the historic 49% of independence supporters recorded in autumn 2017.

Catalan and Spanish identity

The latest CEO survey also asks about the degree of Catalan identity on a scale from 0 to 10. Young people aged 18 to 24 show the lowest level of Catalan identity, with an average score of 6.2 – three-tenths below the overall average of 6.5.

As age increases, so does Catalan identity, reaching 6.7 out of 10 among those over 64.

When it comes to Spanish identity, the numbers are reversed: the overall average score among respondents is 4.4, with the 18-to-24 age group being the only one to score above 5.

People aged 50 to 64 show the lowest level of Spanish identity, with an average of 4.1.