Heatwaves in Barcelona could be 6°C hotter by end of century, study warns

A study by the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology at the Autonomous University of Barcelona (ICTA-UAB) has found that Barcelona city and metropolitan area could experience heatwaves up to 6°C more severe by the end of the 21st century.

The report warns that, without drastic cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, average maximum temperatures could rise by 4°C, and average minimum temperatures by 3.5°C.

In urban inland areas of the metropolitan area, temperatures could exceed 45°C, and reach over 42°C within the city of Barcelona itself.

The research, recently published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, examines historical heatwave episodes from the past 30 years (1991–2020) and applies them to predicted climate conditions later this century.

Using the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) approach and detailed climate models that map urban conditions at a one-kilometre resolution, the study simulates how current weather patterns might change under future climate scenarios for the middle (2041–2070) and end of the century (2071 onward).

The researchers worked on the assumption that regional and global conflicts will persist and that cutting emissions will remain a low priority, potentially leading to CO₂ emissions doubling by 2100.

The findings point to significant increases in maximum temperatures and urban heat island effects – particularly in cities – alongside drops in humidity and changes in sea breeze behavior.

According to the study, maximum daily temperatures could rise by an average of 4°C, with minimums rising around 3.5°C, and peaks reaching 6°C above current levels by the end of the century.

In practical terms, this could result in temperatures above 45°C in some inland parts of the metropolitan area, and above 42°C in central Barcelona, where overnight lows may not fall below 32°C.