Poll shows Socialists leading in Catalonia with 18-19 seats, followed by ERC, PP and Vox

The Catalan Socialists (PSC) are projected to win the most seats in Catalonia in the Spanish general election on November 29, while Esquerra Republicana (ERC) are expected to make gains, according to a new survey by the Catalan government's Centre for Opinion Studies (CEO).

The poll puts the Socialists on 18-19 Congress seats, broadly matching their current tally of 19 MPs in Catalonia.

ERC would rise from 7 seats to 10-11, followed by the conservative People's Party (PP) with 6-7 and far-right Vox with 5-6.

Pro-independence Junts are projected to fall to 4-5 seats, while Comuns would drop sharply from 7 to just 2-3.

In terms of voting intention, the Socialists lead with 29-31%, down from 34.5% at the previous general election.

ERC rise to 17-20%, while the PP stands at 12-14% and Vox at 11-13%.

Junts are projected to receive 10-12%, while Comuns fall from 14% in 2023 to 5-7%.

In a separate projection for the Catalan Parliament, far-right, pro-independence Aliança Catalana (AC) would win 23-25 seats, putting it in contention for second place alongside ERC.

The party has ruled out standing in the Spanish general election.

Spain-wide poll

In a Spain-wide poll, the Spanish government's Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) puts the governing Socialists (PSOE) on 34% of voting intentions, up 3 percentage points.

They lead the PP by 11.8 points, with the conservatives down 3.3 points to 22.2%.

Far-right Vox gain half a point to reach 17.1%.

On the left, Broad Front (Frente Amplio) gain 0.4 points to reach 6.1%, while Podemos fall 0.6 points to 3.1%.

ERC stand at 3% of voting intentions across Spain, up 0.5 points, while Junts reaches 1.1%.

The CEO's survey of 2,000 Catalan voters was conducted between September 1 and October 5, ending on the day the general election was called.

The CIS interviewed 5,000 people across Spain between October 1 and 6, spanning Pedro Sánchez's announcement of the snap election.

Housing is emerging as a major campaign issue. The CIS found that 29.9% of respondents identified it as one of their main concerns, up from 19.5% in September.