Catalan election exit polls: Socialists clear winner but pro-independence majority could be retained

Puigdemont’s Junts+ come second while conservative PP make gains, public broadcaster 3Cat poll says

Catalan election exit poll by public broadcasters RTVE and 3Cat
Catalan election exit poll by public broadcasters RTVE and 3Cat / Catalan News
Catalan News

Catalan News | @catalannews | Barcelona

May 12, 2024 08:03 PM

May 12, 2024 08:19 PM

Voting has closed in the 2024 Catalan election, and exit polls point to the Socialists coming out on top with 37-40 seats, according to Catalan public broadcaster 3Cat. 

This, however, would leave them far short of a majority of 68 in the chamber, a threshold which could be met by the sum of the pro-independence bloc, led by Junts+ with a projected 33-36 seats. They would be followed by fellow pro-independence Esquerra Republicana, with 24-27, who have been in power alone in the Catalan government heading into the vote.

Following them would be far-right Vox, who are projected to win 10-11 seats in the Catalan parliament and the conservative People’s Party with 9-12, far-left pro-independence CUP with 6-8, left-wing Comuns Sumar with 6-7, and far-right pro-independence Aliança Catalana making it to the parliament for the first time with 1-3 MPs. 

In terms of the vote share, the Socialists again lead the pack with 27.1% of the popular vote, followed by Junts+ with 22.1%, ERC (17%), PP (8.1%), Vox (7.2%), Comuns (6.2%), CUP (5.5%), and AC (3.2%).

Other exit polls

According to Catalan news outlet El Nacional, one quarter of all votes will go to the Socialists’ party, earning them 36-39 seats.

Junts+ will also earn more than one in every five votes, with 21.84%, winning them 33-36 seats, ahead of Esquerra Republicana who will stand at 15.77% and 22-24 MPs.

The same news outlet says that Vox will edge the People’s Party by around 10,000 votes, earning them 12-13 seats, ahead of the prediction for the People’s Party of 11-13 seats.

Comuns Sumar will follow behind, taking around 200,000 votes, 6.17% of the total, giving them 5-8 seats. Behind them will be CUP with 4-7 seats (4.35%) and Aliança Catalana earning over 140,000 votes in their first parliamentary election, winning 3-6 seats.