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OECD predicts an 11-14% fall in Spain’s GDP in 2020

Organization says growth of 2021 will not match this year’s losses

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10 June 2020 10:58 AM

by

ACN | Barcelona

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has predicted a drop of 11.1% in Spain’s GDP at the end of 2020 if Covid-19 “disappears after summer.” 

Yet, the institution estimates that should there be another outbreak in autumn, the contraction of Spain’s economy could reach 14.4%. 

According to the OECD, the drop in tourism and internal demand are accountable for a large part of the fall. 

The same predictions estimate an increase in the economy next year, but not enough to compensate for the losses of 2020. 

The OECD says that in the best-case scenario, the GDP surge will be 7.5%, whereas a second outbreak this autumn will prevent the economy from growing more than 5%. 

Spain’s GDP already plummeted by 5.2% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the previous one, and 4.1% on last year – an unprecedented drop at least since 1970.

GDP loss also predicted for Catalonia

Catalonia’s economy contracted by 4.6% in the same period compared to the last quarter of 2019, and by 3.9% on last year. 

In late April, the Catalan government estimated that GDP will fall 8.8% this year in the worst-case scenario, with the unemployment rate skyrocketing from 10-18%.

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