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The support for independence is at its lowest ebb of the last two years according to the latest survey from the Catalan Government’s Survey Institute (CEO), published on Friday. 48% of Catalan citizens are against independence from Spain, while 44.1% are in favour of it. The figures confirm the trend observed in the last CEO survey released in December, when the percentage of those opposing independence (45.3%) overtook those in favour (44.5%) for the first time since 2012. During the last months there have been significant quarrels among the pro-independence parties and there was already the general feeling that the movement was losing supports. This also coincides with a greater mobilisation of the 'no' side, which has focused on spreading doubt and uncertainty about the independence project, and the appearance of new parties at Spanish level that are promising to carry out great changes in the democratic and economic systems.

The Spanish Government approved on Friday to take to the Constitutional Court Catalonia's Law of External Action and Relations with the EU and the opening of delegations in Vienna and Rome. The Spanish Executive will appeal against the law despite it being foreseen by the Catalan Statute of Autonomy – approved by the Spanish Parliament and the Catalan people through a binding referendum in 2006. This is Catalonia's main law after the Spanish Constitution and recognises the Catalan Government's right to carry out its own external action abroad. However, in the current debate about Catalonia's independence, the Spanish Government is reiterating its 'no-to-everything' attitude and recentralisation strategy and has appealed against the law approved by the Catalan Parliament on 26 November last.

After months of discussions between parties and civil society organisations, the National Alliance for the Right to Self-Determination, which comprises more than 3,000 different groups, have met once again and announced a minimum consensus on the 27 September elections: citizens must participate in them "to decide" Catalonia's future. However, the Alliance avoided using the word "plebiscite", since some parties and organisations think that the next elections are not a 'de facto' referendum on independence. After the symbolic vote that took place on 9 November last, forces supporting Catalonia's self-determination process have been openly quarrelling on the next steps to follow in order to ensure a binding vote on independence. In mid-January, after reaching an agreement with the left wing pro-independence party ERC, the President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas, announced early elections for 27 September, to be transformed into a 'de facto' independence plebiscite.

The Catalan Parliament has finally approved the Catalan Government’s budget bill for 2015 and the complementary law on fiscal measures with the backing of the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU and the opposition left-wing Catalan independence party ERC. The CiU and the ERC introduced last-minute changes concerning the launching of state structures, such as Catalonia's own tax administration. These changes come after the Catalan Council for Constitutional Guarantees (CGE) warned that such state structures cannot go beyond Catalonia's current self-rule powers. The CiU and ERC want to build embryonic structures in order to develop them if a majority of citizens vote for independence in the next Catalan elections, which are to be transformed into a 'de facto' referendum. Opposition parties criticised the new budget for "consolidating" budget cuts and for developing state structures.

Isona Passola, the producer of the internationally-acclaimed Catalan film ‘Pa Negre’ (Black Bread), the Spanish contender for an Oscar in 2013, believes that “Catalan culture can be appreciated worldwide”. Passola has made many historical documentaries and is now convinced that “life acquires meaning when working for collective benefit”. Last year she presented ‘L’Endemà’, a documentary aimed at countering the arguments against Catalan independence and financed through crowd-funding. Passola, the current president of the Catalan Film Academy, is “a true defender of the right to form a family” and “has never lost the joie de vivre”.

Barcelona Provincial High Court judge Santiago Vidal, who has openly supported independence, has been expelled from the judiciary for a 3-year period by the Spain’s Judicial Power Council (CGPJ). The sanction is far from unanimous and has been adopted after an 9-hour-long debate among the CGPJ’s 21 members, since the liberal minority was against sanctioning the judge for having written a draft Constitution for an independent Catalonia. However, the conservative majority considered Vidal to have committed a grave mistake regarding his duty to respect the Spanish Constitution. Vidal has been arguing over the past few weeks that such a draft was written in his free time and is part of his freedom of expression and ideology. In addition, he defended himself by saying that when working as a judge, he has always followed the current Constitution and legal framework. After hearing the CGPJ’s decision, Vidal stated that the decision is “political” because he is “hostile to the regime”, “an expression from 40 years ago that I thought I would not hear in democracy”.

The Catalan Government’s Budget for 2015 includes some “unconstitutional” measures, according to the Council for Constitutional Guarantees (CGE), which is an advisory body issuing non-binding reports. The CGE has criticised a number of bill amendments developing some state structures, but not all of them. The body has highlighted the way the budget bill is to develop Catalonia’s own tax administration and its own competition authority, finding it to be at odds with the Spanish Constitution. However, the CGE does consider the way in which Catalonia’s own Social Security system would be developed (by launching the Agency of Social Protection) to respect the Constitution. The governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU and the opposition left-wing Catalan independence party ERC have said they will modify the measures criticised and will develop the affected state structures in a similar way to the Social Security system.

Spain’s Constitutional Court has ruled against the Catalan Parliament’s Law on Consultation Votes, approved in September, and the President of the Catalan Government’s Decree calling for a consultation vote on independence on 9 November last. The Constitutional Court had already temporarily suspended both legal measures in October, but it still was yet to issue its definitive verdict. After the temporary suspension, the Catalan Government promoted an alternative and symbolic vote on independence run by 40,000 volunteers, also on 9 November, in which 2.35 million people participated despite the Spanish authorities’ full opposition and even threats. The Catalan President, Artur Mas, stated that the Constitutional Court’s final decision “leaves 27 September [early elections] as the only way to consult the Catalan people” about their collective future. Meanwhile, the Spanish PM, Mariano Rajoy, highlighted that the Court’s decision “has been adopted unanimously” and that “governments have to honour laws”.

In the annual Debate on the State of the Union in the Spanish Parliament, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy repeated that he will “never” accept putting Spain’s unity in question. He said that the next Catalan Parliament elections, scheduled for 27 September, are not a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence, as pro-independence parties are claiming. However, Rajoy said he is willing to talk but only if “the law is always respected”. The Spokesperson of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida, emphasised that “not making any proposal” to address Catalonia’s claims is “political negligence”. Furthermore, he regretted that the Spanish Government is not respecting the law when it is recentralising powers and not respecting Catalonia’s self-rule. The Spokesperson for the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC, Alfred Bosch, told Rajoy that “the sooner he acknowledges” that there is an independence referendum in September, “the sooner we will find solutions”.

A day after the President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas, announced his plan to further develop the so-called state structures before the 27 September elections, the leader of the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, has once again requested to be part of the Executive and sit in Cabinet. Junqueras justified his request in order “to guarantee the indispensable state structures”, such as Catalonia’s own tax administration and Social Security system. The embryonic frame of such structures should be created before the next Catalan elections, which will be called early and will be transformed into a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence from Spain. On Tuesday, Mas had already ruled out the possibility of the ERC sitting in Government and, on Wednesday, the Catalan President stressed that the current Cabinet will only be in office for the next 6 months.

On Monday, the National Executive Commission of the centre-right pro-Catalan State Coalition CiU, which is its leading committee, has explicitly referred to last week's crisis. Last Tuesday, the CiU MPs in the Spanish Parliament voted differently, showing a split within the coalition, coinciding with the two integrated parties: the Liberal and pro-independence force CDC (the largest one) on one side and the Christian-Democrat and pro-Spanish unity party UDC on the other. The CiU's Spokesperson in the Spanish Parliament and leader of the UDC, Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida, believed the CDC MPs had not obeyed his voting instructions to support the Penal Code's reform, while the Liberal MPs were insisting that the CiU group had previously agreed on abstaining. Now, the CiU leadership considers the crisis to be over and highlighted their "full support" for Duran i Lleida.

The conservative Spanish nationalist People’s Party (PP), which runs the Spanish Government, has appealed against the Catalan Executive’s 2015 budget bill, which will delay its definitive approval and implementation by up to one month. The new budget was supposed to be approved this week by the Catalan Parliament, after months of negotiations between the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU and the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC. The new bill will increase social spending and also increase funds for Catalonia’s own tax administration and for the launch of a Catalan Social Security agency. The Catalan Government accused the PP of “parliamentary filibusterism” and warned them that the appeal “will not stop the [self-determination] process” nor the creation of “state structures”. However, it will damage families in need, as it will delay the implementation of new social programmes.

The Catalan Government’s Deputy Minister for External Affairs, Roger Albinyana, announced the Executive’s aim to have a network of “about 50 delegations” throughout the world, representing Catalonia’s political, business and cultural interests abroad. The Catalan Government currently has 7 delegations abroad, after the new representations in Rome and Vienna start to work on Monday, when the representatives were appointed. The 5 others are located in Brussels, London, Paris, Berlin and Washington. In the coming “months and years”, the Catalan Government will continue to open new delegations. Regardless of the hypothetical independence from Spain, the Catalan Executive already has the powers to have its own External Action policy, recognised by the Catalan Statute of Autonomy from 2006, although with many limitations.

Barcelona High Court judge Santiago Vidal, along with a team of other law experts, has presented a proposal for a future Catalan Constitution in the event of independence with the aim to steer debate. The draft includes 97 articles according to which Catalonia would become a parliamentary republic with no army. However, this proposal can be changed as a webpage has been created through which citizens can table amendments online. Along with this draft, two other constitution projects have been presented: ‘constitucio.cat’ created by a team of Catalan law experts living abroad, and another constitution draft presented by ‘Lawyers for independence’ from the National Assembly of Catalonia (ANC). Spain’s Judicial Power Council (CGPJ) has called for the expulsion of Santiago Vidal from the Judiciary for his pro-independence initiatives.

The governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU and the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC have reached an agreement to approve the Catalan Government’s budget for the current year. After the President of the Catalan Government and CiU leader, Artur Mas, and the ERC’s President, Oriol Junqueras, reached an agreement on holding early elections on 27 September as a plebiscite on Catalonia’s independence, both parties reopened the budget talks. After 10 days of negotiations, they have reached a definitive agreement, which includes a €100 million fund that will bring more resources for social programmes. They have also agreed to stop paying some allowances to senior officials. Furthermore, they will add €10 million to the development of Catalonia’s own tax administration and they will also create the Agency of Social Protection, which is to manage Catalonia’s Social Security system.