BBVA-Sabadell takeover saga reaches crucial deadline tonight

"Let' see if this ends once and for all," Josep Oliu, president of Banc Sabadell, told BBVA president Carlos Torres during a brief exchange last week at an event they both attended. They laughed about it, Oliu later revealed in a recent interview. 

The long hostile takeover bid by BBVA for Banc Sabadell has stretched on for seventeen months, since May 2024, and even the top executives of both banks agree: it is time for it to end. 

The beginning of the end starts today, as it is the last day for Banc Sabadell shareholders to decide whether they want to sell their shares to BBVA. After tonight, they will no longer be able to accept the offer. 

While both banks agree that the process should finish, they disagree on the outcome. BBVA is confident it will exceed the 50% acceptance needed to take control "by far," while Sabadell believes this is "impossible" and expects acceptance to be around 30%.  

More than 200,000 Sabadell shareholders have had a month to exchange their shares, though in situations like this, it is common for most decisions to come in at the last moments, sometimes even in the final hours. 

To accommodate this, BBVA has kept its offices open until 9 pm for share exchanges.  

Meanwhile, on Thursday, Sabadell sent a letter to shareholders reminding them that even if they had already accepted the takeover bid, they still had the option to revoke their decision and encouraged them to reconsider "one last time." 

So far, most investors have kept their decisions private, with only two exceptions: Mexican investor David Martínez Guzmán, who has publicly confirmed they will accept the bid, and Zurich Insurance, which has already announced it will not participate. 

Guzmán, who owns 3.86% of the company, said he considered the combined entities to be "more competitive," while Zurich, holding 5% of the shares, described the offer as "not attractive." 

Whether these strategies will succeed or not will become clear in a week. On Friday, October 17, Spain's market regulator (CNMV) will publish the results of the shareholders' decisions. 

If acceptance exceeds 50%, BBVA will gain a controlling stake in Sabadell. If it falls below 30%, the bid will be rejected. 

However, if BBVA secures between 30% and 50%, a second hostile takeover bid could occur. Any new bid would have to be made in cash and at a price approved by the market regulator. 

If that happens, Oliu's hope that this saga might finally be over will have to be put on hold, likely for another five or six months.