Politics

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, has stated that Catalonia's upcoming elections are Spain's "main risk" to the State itself and to the country’s economic recovery. Rajoy read a speech before the press before departing for his summer break, and Catalonia's independence was one of the main issues he talked about. The Spanish PM stressed that the government he heads "will never allow secession to happen"; "by no means will there be independence", he emphasised. He also stressed that the Spanish Government is ready "to fight the battle of defending the many millions of citizens who feel Catalan, Spanish and European". Rajoy said he is satisfied with the strategy he has been employing during the last few years, based on a total rejection of even talking about the organisation of a mutually-agreed vote like the one that took place in Scotland. According to him, his approach was "cautious and proportional". "We have not made any concession", he added, "nothing". According to him, any Spanish PM would have acted in the same way, as "it is not easy to hold a dialogue with somebody who wants to organise a referendum".

Despite the fact that all the Autonomous Community governments that are not run by the People's Party (PP) requested the Spanish Executive  – run by the PP – to allow them a greater deficit in 2016 and that Spain's independent fiscal authority Airef also recommended granting regional governments greater deficit targets for next year, the Spanish Finance Minister, Cristóbal Montoro, has rejected doing so. In 2016, the Autonomous Communities will have to close their budgets with less than a 0.3% deficit, "an absurd" and "unrealistic" figure according to the Catalan Finance Minister, Andreu Mas-Colell, who was recently awarded an honorary PhD in Economics by the University of Chicago. The Catalan Government asked for a 0.88% deficit target for 2016. Besides this, next year the Catalan Executive will receive €1.2 billion that should have already been transferred by the Spanish Executive but was not, due to Montoro's tax revenue miscalculations. In addition to this, since economic activity is growing, the Spanish Government will increase the Catalan Executive's funds by €700 million each year from 2016 onwards.

The conservative People's Party – which runs the Spanish Government – has chosen Xavier García Albiol, whose statements have been called xenophobic by many, to top its candidature for the next Catalan Parliament elections and run for President of the Catalan Government. García Albiol, who was Mayor of Badalona between 2011 and 2015, will replace the leader of the PP's Catalan branch, Alícia Sánchez-Camacho, who is currently involved in a dirty political espionage case. A few weeks ago it was said that the PP would stick with Sánchez-Camacho to run in the next Catalan Elections, scheduled for 27 September and likely to be transformed into a 'de facto' plebiscite on independence from Spain. However, after the rest of the main parties chose new faces to top their candidatures, the PP is doing the same and has picked García Albiol, who lost Badalona's mayoral office in May, despite being the most voted candidate, as he was unable to achieve an absolute majority.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, presented on Monday the model for Catalonia's own Treasury, which will be developed should "the political conditions" be there, he stated. "This is the most serious attempt to build our own Treasury in the last 300 years", stressed Mas. "After two years of work, we are ready" to launch and Catalans should not waste "this great opportunity", he stressed. "Without our own Treasury, there is no real self-government", the Catalan President stated. The system would include Catalonia's own Tax Agency and  is inspired by the taxation authorities in countries such as Sweden, Denmark and Australia, which prioritise cooperation with taxpayers over controlling them. In these models, efforts are concentrated on severely persecuting tax evaders and underground economy, while the vast majority of tax-payers who deal correctly with their fiscal obligations receive assistance and have unlimited access to their fiscal data.

Lluís Llach, one of the most famous Catalan musicians and one of the main voices against Franco's dictatorship, will  top the pro-independence unitary list running in the Girona Province in the forthcoming Catalan elections, which should become a 'de facto' referendum on independence. In the Tarragona Province, the 'Junts pel Sí' pro-independence list ('Together for the Yes') will be topped by economics professor Germà Bel, an expert on infrastructure. The list groups together Liberal, Social-Democrat, Green, and Christian-Democrat politicians, as well as many independents and representatives from civil society. It will officially start the independence process if they win the elections and pro-independence parties obtain an absolute majority in the Catalan Parliament. The list is topped by former Eco-Socialist Member of the European Parliament, Raül Romeva, who is running in Barcelona Province.

The Spanish Parliament has approved a bill through which the Spanish Government can take control of the Mossos d'Esquadra (Catalonia's police corps managed by the Catalan Executive), in order "to defend Spain" or in the event of a natural disaster. The Spanish Government has justified the measure by stressing the need to enhance coordination in a crisis situation, putting several security corps under the same command. However, the law also comes in the middle of Catalonia's debate on independence from Spain and with several voices in Madrid, including leading members of the Spanish Government, talking about the possibility of suspending Catalonia's autonomy in the event of a unilateral declaration of independence. The Catalan Government will take the new law to the Constitutional Court, as it is an invasion of its own powers.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, stated on Tuesday that a unilateral declaration of independence in Catalonia in the event that pro-independence parties obtain an absolute majority in September’s Catalan elections would be “a frontal attack on the law”, “which has no precedent in democratic and civilised countries”. The day after the pro-independence unitary list presented its road map for the months after the Catalan elections, which are to be transformed into a ‘de facto’ plebiscite on independence, Rajoy repeated that he is “ready” to face “any problem” and insisted that he “will not allow” a unilateral declaration of independence to happen. He asked for “calm” and insisted that the next Catalan elections “are only about electing an Autonomous Community parliament”. In the presence of Algeria’s Prime Minister, Abdelmalek Sellal, 2 of the 3 questions addressed to Rajoy by the press were about Catalonia’s independence.

Pablo Iglesias, Secretary General of the Spanish alternative left party Podemos, has committed himself in Barcelona to respecting “the democratic will expressed by Catalans” regarding a self-determination vote, although he did not mention independence. Iglesias made this statement during the presentation of the electoral coalitions built for both the Catalan and Spanish elections with the Catalan Eco-Socialist and Post-Communist coalition ICV-EUiA, which were announced a few days ago. The leader of Podemos recognised that “the way [such an expression] will be legally materialised will present difficulties”, but that his party is “committed to implementing the most operative and effective ways so that such difficulties can be removed”. Meanwhile, ICV’s National Coordinator, Joan Herrera, said that “in order to change Catalonia, we have to change the entire [Spanish] State”. Furthermore, he said that their coalition MPs elected in Catalonia will form their own group in the Spanish Parliament.

The pro-independence unitary list for the next Catalan elections and the road map towards independence were officially presented on Monday evening at Catalonia's National History Museum. Liberals, Social-Democrats, Greens, Christian-Democrats, Socialists and civil society organisations are running together and transforming the 27 September elections into a 'de facto' plebiscite on independence. "What we are doing here is very strange but we are going through a very strange moment, extraordinary", stated former Member of the European Parliament, Raül Romeva, who is topping the unitary list. "We have tried everything" to hold a self-determination vote, but using the parliamentary elections is the only option left "to exercise our right to vote", stressed Romeva. The former Eco-Socialist MEP disclosed the main steps of the road map towards independence and also highlighted the main government priorities, particularly focusing on the people most in need. "This is the reason" why "we are doing this" and uniting under the name 'Together for the Yes'.

The current manager of FC Bayern Munich, Catalonia-born Pep Guardiola, will occupy the symbolic last position on the unitary pro-independence list running in the next Catalan Parliament elections, which groups together Liberals, Social-Democrats, Christian-Democrats, Socialists, Greens and civil society organisations, according to news released on Monday morning by the ‘El País’ and ‘El Periódico’ newspapers. The elections are scheduled for 27 September and many parties are planning to transform them into a ‘de facto’ plebiscite on independence after the Spanish Government’s unilateral blocking attitude for the last 3 years. For many people, this is the only way left to hold a legal vote on independence, after the Spanish Government has totally rejected even talking about the self-determination claims democratically expressed by a majority of Catalan citizens through the last Catalan elections in 2012 and many peaceful mass demonstrations.

"I come in peace", stated the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, when a journalist asked him whether he saw himself coming to La Zarzuela Palace once again as a Head of State on an official visit. It was the first meeting between the Catalan President and the King of Spain, Felipe VI, after the unitary pro-independence list was announced for the forthcoming Catalan Parliament elections, scheduled for 27 September and likely to become a 'de facto' plebiscite on independence from Spain. The conversation between Felipe VI and Mas is a part of a series of protocol meetings that the Spanish monarch is currently holding with all the Presidents of the Autonomous Communities. The meeting lasted one hour and 15 minutes, and had a cordial tone, according to Catalan Government sources. As is the custom with this type of encounter, there were no statements made afterwards. However, before the meeting, the Catalan Government believed the King and Mas would also talk about the self-determination process.

On Friday, the Catalan Green-Socialist party ICV and alternative left-wing Podem (Catalan branch of the Spanish party Podemos), reached an agreement to run together in the Spanish elections, after already having agreed a few days ago to run together in the next Catalan elections (scheduled for 27 September). The Spanish elections have not been called yet, but are expected to be held later this year, according to Barcelona-based newspaper 'El Periódico' and sources from the two political parties. In late June, the leaders of ICV, Joan Herrera, and Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, already announced that the two parties intended to participate as a coalition in both the Catalan and Spanish elections. They are to run in both ballots under the name 'Catalunya Sí que es pot' (in English, 'Catalonia yes we can'), adding the word 'Podem' at the beginning of the name for the Spanish elections.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, has reacted to the unitary pro-independence list that will run in the next Catalan elections (scheduled for 27 September) and which groups the main civil society organisations with Liberals, Social-Democrats, Socialists, Greens and Christian-Democrats politicians. These elections will become a 'de facto' plebiscite on Catalonia's independence from Spain, after almost 3 years of the Spanish Government unilaterally blocking any discussion about a mutually agreed vote, despite the clear democratic mandate from the 2012 Catalan elections. On Thursday, Rajoy stated that "Catalonia's independence will not take place". In front of the Polish PM, Ewa Kopacz, Rajoy stressed that his government "is absolutely prepared" to enforce the law if somebody violates it. On Wednesday, he had already referred to the forthcoming Catalan elections, saying they "will be just another autonomic election […] and nothing else", "despite the confusion manoeuvres" of the pro-independence forces.

Former Member of the European Parliament Raül Romeva, who also used to be a member of the Catalan Green-Socialist party ICV, will be heading the pro-independence unitary list formed for the next Catalan elections by the Liberal party CDC, the Social-Democrat ERC, the Socialist MES and the Christian-Democrat DC with leading representatives from civil society. Civil society activists Carme Forcadell and Muriel Casals will come second and third respectively. The elections, scheduled for 27 September, will become a 'de facto' referendum on independence, after almost 3 years of the Spanish Government unilaterally blocking any discussion for a mutually agreed vote, despite the clear democratic mandate from the 2012 Catalan elections, when citizens voted overwhelmingly for parties supporting a legal self-determination vote. After months of discussions, almost all the pro-independence forces are uniting and forming a shared list to transform the next elections into an independence plebiscite.

The Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) and Barcelona-based Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB) think tanks, together with an Italian and a Greek research centre, have presented a report stating that the economy of an independent Catalonia would grow more in the next 15 years than if the current 'status quo' was kept. The study analyses 3 different scenarios: the current model, an agreed independence process and a unilateral declaration of independence. In either case of independence, the Catalan economy would be in better shape in the long-run than if the current framework was kept, the researchers conclude. However, in the event of a unilateral process, there may be negative economic effects in the short-term, mostly due to uncertainties related to EU Membership. Nonetheless, they consider the current inter-territorial fiscal scheme – imposed by the Spanish Government – "unsustainable at macroeconomic level" for Catalonia.