Politics

On Thursday, Oleguer Pujol, the youngest son of the former Catalan President, Jordi Pujol Soley, was formally indicted for alleged fiscal fraud and money laundering. The Spanish Police and the Public Prosecutor searched his house and several of his companies looking for files regarding real estate operations. This makes Oleguer the third son of the historical leader of conservative Catalan nationalism to be indicted for fiscal offenses. Furthermore, on Wednesday another judge indicted 11 people related to the former President's oldest son, Jordi Pujol Ferrusola – who seems to be at the centre of almost all the investigations. In addition, the judge has requested the freezing of his bank accounts in Andorra, from which he transferred €2.4 million to Mexico just after his father's fiscal fraud confession in July. On top of this, a judge from Liechtenstein is investigating the former Catalan President for alleged money laundering, after requests from the Spanish Police. Jordi Pujol senior has denied having had any bank account in the Alpine country.

The President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State CiU, Artur Mas, and the President of the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, met on Wednesday, after days of tensions among the parties supporting self-determination. The tensions have been mainly about how to raise the legal profile of the alternative participatory process scheduled on the 9^th of November, which replaces the original consultation vote, and about a common platform to run in early elections transformed into a 'de facto' referendum on independence. According to Junqueras, the two leaders decided to work on making sure that the alternative consultation vote is "a success". In addition, he said that Mas had requested that he leave the debate about the early elections for the days after the 9^th of November's vote, despite Junqueras insisting on an immediate electoral call.

938 of the 947 existing municipalities in Catalonia will host polling stations for the alternative consultation vote on independence scheduled for the 9^th of November, which replaces the original non-binding referendum. According to the Catalan Government, this represents 99.9% of Catalans being able to vote in their own neighbourhood, town or village, without having to go to a nearby municipality. The Catalan Government will be using its own venues to host the polling stations (mainly high-schools), but it lacks them in small towns. For this reason it requested that town halls cooperate and make municipal venues available for voting. 4 additional municipalities could be added to the final list. In addition, civil societies and parties will be able to campaign in 305 Catalan Government's venues between the 30^th of October and the 8^th of November.

The international rating agency Moody’s analyses the current political situation in Catalonia regarding the alternative consultation vote scheduled for the 9^th of November and the potential early elections. Moody’s considers that early Catalan Parliament elections are the most likely scenario, emphasising the Catalan Government’s commitment to respect the legal framework. In addition, it also considers “a common platform” with which pro-independence parties would run in the elections to be the most likely outcome. On top of this, Moody’s predicts the victory of such a common platform and that Catalonia would be in a “strong” position to negotiate a better fiscal deal within the current Constitution. However, in such scenario, Moody’s does not consider independence. In this vein, Catalonia’s credit rating is likely to improve while Spain’s would worsen.

The Catalan Government is disclosing further organisation details of the alternative participatory process that will take place on the 9^th of November, which is replacing the original consultation vote that was banned by Spanish authorities. The Catalan Minister for the Presidency, Francesc Homs, announced that 26,372 volunteers had already signed up on Monday afternoon to help in the organisation of the 9^th of November's vote. 20,000 were initially required, but Homs announced that registration would remain open because "the greater amount of resources we have, the better". In addition, high-schools will be the 700 Catalan Government's venues that will host the 6,000 voting booths. In the small rural towns and villages without high-schools, the Catalan Government is talking with municipalities to find alternatives.

After the civil society demonstration that took place on Sunday asking for the rebuilding of the unity of action and calling early elections, there has been some confusion regarding the Catalan Government's announcement of a "pre-agreement" on "a technical" unity for the alternative participatory process on the 9^th of November. In the morning the Catalan Government's Spokesperson, Francesc Homs, announced such a pre-agreement with the alternative left and radical independence CUP and was hoping the other parties would join it. The CUP refused such a pre-agreement. In addition, the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC and the Catalan green socialist and post-communist coalition ICV-EUiA met after knowing this announcement and asked for early elections. In addition, they said they will keep working for a shared proposal to strengthen the democratic guarantees for the new November 9.

The Catalan National Assembly (ANC) and Òmnium Cultural, which are the civil society associations that organised the massive pro-independence demonstrations in 2012, 2013 and 2014, have given their support to the alternative consultation vote proposed by the Catalan Government but on the condition of early elections taking place within the next three months. On Sunday, the ANC and Òmnium gathered 110,000 people (according to Barcelona local police) in Catalunya Square, three times more than the pro-Spanish-unity demonstration that took place in the same place a week earlier. In front of a pro-independence crowd, the two civil society organisations demanded unity of action from the parties supporting self-determination. They called for "a massive mobilisation" in the alternative participatory process of the 9^th of November, being "the first round" of the early elections, which should become a 'de facto' referendum on independence.

The Catalan Government is currently preparing its budget for the next year. However, it is uncertain whether a new budget will be approved or the current one will have to be extended. The Government's parliamentary supports are uncertain because of self-determination and the prospect of early elections on the horizon of to be transformed into a plebiscite on independence. The governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU does not have a majority in the Parliament. Its ally over the last two years, the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC, is reluctant to reach a deal because the original self-determination consultation vote was cancelled by the Government. Meanwhile, CiU's anti-independence sectors are trying to reach a deal with the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and the Spanish Government is trying to promote an anti-independence alliance between these last two.

After the cancellation of the original consultation vote scheduled for the 9^th of November, parties are preparing for hypothetical early elections, transformed into a de facto referendum on independence. The parliamentary stability alliance between the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU and the opposition left-wing Catalan independence party ERC is seriously damaged. This affects the approval of the Catalan Government's budget for 2015 and a potential electoral alliance in such a plebiscite on independence. CiU, formed by the Liberal CDC and the Christian-Democrat UDC, and social-democrat ERC were the three main parties within the pact for the consultation vote scheduled. As preparations for the 9^th of November would have required breaking Spanish law, tensions between them were raised. After the pact was broken, there have been efforts to work together again on different fronts, while UDC is looking for new allies.

The Catalan Government is gradually disclosing details and starting preparations for the alternative consultation process on independence that will take place on the 9^th of November, which replaces the consultation vote also scheduled on that day. Meanwhile, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, celebrates "the excellent news" about the Catalan Government abandoning the previous consultation vote, which had been temporarily suspended by the Constitutional Court. The Spanish Government and the People's Party (PP), chaired by Rajoy, would not want to raise the profile of the minor new vote by acting strongly against it. It seems they are hesitating whether to appeal against it or to tolerate it, in spite of Catalans still being called to cast a ballot about independence from Spain in a non-binding participatory process.

Comparing Catalonia's self-determination process with the Nazi regime has become one of the arguments the Spanish nationalists have used over the last two years, repeated in extreme-right television stations and even at the Spanish Parliament. Such an offensive comparison outrages most of Catalan society, for its total unfairness in describing a democratic process and for trivialising Nazism and the suffering of its victims. Now, the issue has reached the European Parliament, where the Spanish nationalist party UPyD sent a letter to all 751 MEPs comparing the situation in Catalonia with that of "Italy and Germany in the 1920s and 1930s". The CDU MEP Ingeborg Grässle was outraged by the letter and urged UPyD "to at least apologise". "Any politician in Germany would have immediately resigned", she added. Besides, civil society organisations in Barcelona have filed a complaint to the Public Prosecutor Office against dozens of calumnies against self-determination process and its comparison to Nazism.

The new self-determination process announced this Monday by the Catalan President is not shared by the majority of parties supporting the previous consultation vote, although they also said they will not boycott it. The left-wing parties supporting the previous vote are hoping that the Catalan Government will reconsider its new proposal and "come back to the consensus" around the initial plans. In Madrid, the Spanish Government will wait to see the "black and white" of the new proposal in order to decide whether to appeal against it or not. However, the Spanish Justice Minister warned that if the alternative vote is also about independence, "it would have the same vices of unconstitutionality" and would be taken to the Constitutional Court for its suspension. After hearing Mas' new proposal, the People's Party (PP) affirmed that Catalonia's "independence process has ended". Furthermore, Spanish nationalist parties asked for Mas' resignation and early elections.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, ruled out the consultation vote already called for the 9^th of November and agreed upon among a majority of Catalan parties, in face of the opposition from the Spanish authorities. However, he announced an alternative "participatory process" on that same day, in which 20,000 volunteers throughout Catalonia will run the polling stations, located in Catalan Government venues, and people would register just before voting. Mas believes that this new vote does not openly challenge the Spanish authorities' ban, while it is an alternative way to vote on the 9^th of November, as promised. However, he also admitted that such a process is not comparable to a proper referendum and stated that "the definitive referendum" would be early Catalan Parliament elections, where parties would transform it into a plebiscite on independence. The first reactions have been sceptical, both in Barcelona and Madrid.

Parties supporting the self-determination vote scheduled for the 9^th of November have met on Monday in Barcelona to discuss whether to carry on the consultation vote as is currently planned or to launch an alternative, in view of the total opposition from the Spanish authorities. According to two parties present at the meeting, the Catalan Government has ruled out the organisation of the consultation as it has been proposed by the decree that has been temporarily suspended by the Constitutional Court. Instead, the Catalan Government has proposed organising a “participatory process” on the same day, using the legislation that has not been suspended by the Spanish authorities. This alternative will be disclosed on Tuesday morning by the Catalan President, Artur Mas. The Spanish Government has already said it will also appeal against such an alternative. The left-wing Catalan independence party ERC has announced it will not back such an alternative and proposes a unilateral declaration of independence.

On Spain's National Day, the 12^th of October, the unionist association called Catalan Civil Society (SCC) organised a massive demonstration against Catalonia's self-determination and independence in downtown Barcelona, which was backed by the People's Party (PP) – running the Spanish Government, the anti-Catalan nationalist party Ciutadans (C's) and the Spanish nationalist party UPyD. It is the 3^rd consecutive year that a demonstration has been organised to support Spain's unity on the 12^th of October in the Catalan capital.  As happened on the two other occasions, organisers failed to fill up Catalunya Square although they gathered thousands of people carrying Spanish and Catalan flags. According to Barcelona's Police, 38,000 participated in it, while according to the Catalan Police 1.8 million people participated in the rally for the consultation vote and independence a month ago.