survey

The number of unemployed people in Catalonia has risen by 1,500 people during the first quarter of 2015. The percentage has increased for a second consecutive period although the figures are better than a year ago. According to figures from the Spanish Government's Labour Force Survey, released on Thursday, 758,000 people are out of work in Catalonia and the unemployment rate has risen in quarterly terms. However the first quarter of 2015 has 82,100 less unemployed people than those in the same period in 2014, when the rate was 22.1%. Throughout the whole of Spain, the unemployment rate also increased since the previous quarter, reaching 23.78%.

The support for independence is at its lowest ebb of the last two years according to the latest survey from the Catalan Government’s Survey Institute (CEO), published on Friday. 48% of Catalan citizens are against independence from Spain, while 44.1% are in favour of it. The figures confirm the trend observed in the last CEO survey released in December, when the percentage of those opposing independence (45.3%) overtook those in favour (44.5%) for the first time since 2012. During the last months there have been significant quarrels among the pro-independence parties and there was already the general feeling that the movement was losing supports. This also coincides with a greater mobilisation of the 'no' side, which has focused on spreading doubt and uncertainty about the independence project, and the appearance of new parties at Spanish level that are promising to carry out great changes in the democratic and economic systems.

Catalonia posted a 19.88% unemployment rate at the end of 2014, almost 4 percentage points lower than the rate for the whole of Spain, which was 23.70%. On 31 December 2014, there were 756,500 unemployed people in Catalonia, which represents 83,000 less jobseekers than a year ago, according to the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). Despite the positive annual results, unemployment increased by 30,500 people in quarterly terms, compared to figures from the end of September 2014. Back then, Catalonia's unemployment rate was 19.10%. In terms of jobs, the Catalan economy ended 2014 with 49,300 more people in employment than at the end of 2013, reaching 3,048,100 workers. The Catalan Government is said to be "moderately optimistic" with the figures and highlighted that both 2014 and 2013 ended with less unemployed in annual terms, accumulating two consecutive years of decreased numbers.

For the first time in the last two years, the number of people opposing independence from Spain would be more than those supporting the separation, according to an opinion poll released on Friday by the Catalan Government’s Survey Institute (CEO). 45.3% of the interviewees would oppose independence, while 44.5% would support it. According to the CEO’s Director, Jordi Argelaguet, these figures indicate “a technical draw”, since there is only a 9-person difference out of the 1,000 interviews carried out in early December, following the 9 November’s symbolic self-determination vote. However, the figures show two important trends: the higher mobilisation of citizens opposing independence and the slight decrease of support for independence. 7.5% of those interviewed would be undecided and 2.8% preferred not to answer the question.

According to a poll issued by the Centre of Opinion Studies (CEO), run by the Catalan Government, 59.7% of Catalans would agree with Catalonia becoming "a new European State". Specifically, 40.2% of the interviewees "totally agree" with the idea, 19.5% of the interviewees tend to agree, 10.8% tend to disagree and 18.9% are "totally against" it. Furthermore, 87.3% of the interviewees affirm they would accept the result of a self-determination referendum while 9.3% state they would not accept it. Furthermore, 74% of Catalans believe that the best way to decide on Catalonia's political future and its relationship with Spain is through a referendum, while 21.7% think the opposite.

The CIS – the Spanish Government’s public opinion survey institute – has indicated that 55.1% of Catalans would like a Catalan state, either independent from Spain (33.7%) or within a federal Spain (21.4%). 29.4% would like to keep the Autonomous Community model and 12.1% would back recentralisation and Catalonia being a Spanish “region”. The survey was taken between September and October but the results were only released recently in early May, more than half a year later. In addition, 65.1% of the interviewees said they wanted more power for the Catalan Government.

The latest political poll issued by the Catalan Survey Centre (CEO), published every three months, shows that 54.7% of those interviewed would vote “yes” in an independence referendum, while 20.7% would vote “no” and 17.0% would abstain. Three months ago, the “yes” option was backed by 57% of the interviewees while in February 2012 it was only backed by 44%. Besides, 46.4% of citizens would support an independent Catalan state as their first choice, which represents an increase of 2.1 percentage points in three months and a 17.4 point increase in one year. 22.4% would prefer a federal Spain, 20.7% the current situation and 4.4% Catalonia being a region within a more centralised Spain.

Elections for the Catalan Parliament, which will elect the next President of the Catalan Government, are to be held on the 25th of November. The two-week electoral campaign has started, with Catalonia’s independence as the main topic of debate, while opposition parties are trying to put the budget cuts and the recovery from the economic crisis upfront. On Thursday, minutes before midnight, political parties officially kicked off the campaign, although the race started a month and a half ago, when the Catalan President, Artur Mas, called for early elections. Surveys indicate that Mas’ party, the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), will win the elections again, with improved results and close to an absolute majority. Catalonia’s political map may change with the Socialist Party likely to drop.

Just before the Catalan election campaign kicks off, the survey centres run by the Spanish and the Catalan governments have both issued their own polls. 57% of Catalans would vote for independence in a referendum, according to the Catalan survey. In June the percentage was 51%. The Spanish survey did not include the question. Both polls agree that the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) – currently running the Catalan Government – would gain more votes, close to obtaining an absolute majority. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), which is against independence and already obtained its worst results ever in 2010, would lose between 30% and 45% of MPs. The People’s Party (PP) would obtain similar results, but might become the party in second place. The Left-Wing Independence Party (ERC) would increase its representation by 40% to 70% and might become the third party.

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