self-determination

ERC, now led by Oriol Junqueras, is facing the next Catalan elections aware they will significantly increase their number of MPs and knowing that they are likely to play an essential role in Catalonia’s politics in the next term. After renovating their leadership and with a moderately-pitched speech, ERC might increase the current 10 MPs – which was their worst result in 20 years – to 16 or even 19 MPs, according to the latest polls. Furthermore, depending on the results obtained by the pro-Spain unity parties PSC and PP, ERC might become the second largest group in the Catalan Parliament. In any case, as they are the party that historically supports Catalonia’s independence, ERC will offer its support to the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) to organise a self-determination referendum.

With 3.39% of the votes in the last elections and 3 MPs in the Catalan Parliament, polls indicate that the number of Ciutadans’s MPs could double in the next elections, resulting in between 6 and 8 MPs, and forming its own parliamentary group for the first time. In its 6 years of existence, it has mainly focused on attacking the policies defending the Catalan language. Now, clearly opposed to Catalan independence and organising a self-determination referendum, C’s is lifting the banner of Spanish unity to attract voters. Ciutadans is seen by many as a populist party, with a conflict-driven speech criticising Catalonia’s political class and offering easy solutions to complex social problems.

The report, published by the British Parliament, has been drafted by a senior expert on the enlargement of the European Union, Honorary Director-General of the European Commission and Senior Adviser at the European Policy Centre. The arguments in the document also apply to the Catalan case. The text states that “for practical and political reasons [Scottish people] could not be asked to leave the EU and apply for readmission” since “having been members of the EU for 40 years, [they] have acquired rights as European citizens”. The analysis concludes that “negotiations on the terms of membership would take place in the period between the referendum and the planned date of independence” and that “the EU would adopt a simplified procedure for the negotiations”.

The PSC approved its electoral programme last weekend with the aim of becoming a third option “between the recentralisation of the People’s Party (PP) and the independence of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU)”. They propose the reformation of the Constitution to build a federal Spain and the organisation of a self-determination referendum in Catalonia, in which they would defend Spain’s unity. However, the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) – to which the Catalan Socialists (PSC) are federated – is against the possibility of organising a self-determination referendum in Catalonia. A few weeks ago, the PSC was still against organising such a referendum, although now they have embraced the idea shared by almost 80% of Catalans, according to the polls.

The Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) presented its electoral programme for the next Catalan elections, to be held on the 25th of November. CiU’s leader and incumbent President of the Catalan Government – who is running for re-election, Artur Mas, stated that “if we want a leading Catalonia in Europe, we need a state structure, which we do not have”. CiU’s electoral programme talks about creating “state structures” but it does not openly mention the word “independence”; however, it is the closest a CiU electoral programme has ever been to supporting an independent Catalonia. The document points towards Europe and is called ‘Catalonia 2020’. “We want to be stuck with Europe. If we were to choose a partner, Europe would be our current marriage choice”, stated Mas.

Pimec, the main SME association in Catalonia, issued a survey taken of its members. Two thirds of the interviewees would support Catalonia’s independence from Spain while remaining in the European Union. 21.1% would prefer a more federal Spain and only 12.1% would back the current situation. In addition, 97.5% of the interviewees support improving Catalonia’s fiscal scheme. Furthermore, 61.2% think a hypothetical boycott of Catalan products by Spain would not or would hardly affect them.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, had previously accused the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, of having blackmailed him by trying to “impose the fiscal agreement or accept the consequences” in last September’s meeting, when Mas proposed a specific fiscal agreement between Catalonia and Spain. The Catalan President denied having blackmailed the Spanish PM. According to Mas, Rajoy “did not want to negotiate a fiscal agreement” as he considered that “Catalonia is not as badly treated” as Catalans say. The Catalan President said he explained to Rajoy what would happen “if the answer to all Catalan claims is always ‘no’”. “It is not a threat, it is describing the reality. The President of the Catalan Government’s duty is to inform [the Spanish PM] about Catalonia’s situation” Mas added.

They say that European legislation foresees the cancellation of the voting rights of an EU Member State if there is “a clear risk of serious […] and persistent breach” of the common values. The four MEPs denounce “the military threats” and “the tone used by the People’s Party and the Spanish Government”. They have sent a formal letter to the European Commissioner for Justice, Fundamental Rights and Citizenship, Viviane Reding. They ask the EU to be vigilant and “to evaluate the real risks of a potential military intervention” by Spanish forces against Catalonia. If such a risk existed, the EU should suspend Spain’s voting rights in the European Council.

The day the United Kingdom and Scotland signed the agreement to organise the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, the Spanish Justice Minister, Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón, states that the Spanish Government will not agree to organise or even negotiate on a referendum on Catalonia’s independence. Furthermore, the same day, Jaime Mayor Oreja, the leader of the Spanish Euro MPs from the People’s Party (PP), proposed “facing” the Catalan independence movement as was done earlier with ETA’s terrorism. Two weeks ago, Mayor Oreja had already linked the Catalan independence movement with the Basque terrorist group ETA. The Catalan President, Artur Mas, said that if Madrid does not authorise the referendum, Catalonia will appeal to European and international institutions.

An official study issued by the Catalan Finance Ministry shows that Catalan citizens have given €24.77 billion more to the Spanish pension and unemployment funds than they have received back from it. The study takes into account the contributions of Catalan citizens and companies between 1995 and 2010. Without the Catalan contributions, the Spanish Social Security system would have had a €86.33 billion deficit in the same period. The Catalan contribution to the Social Security system was negative in 1995-1996 and 2009-2010, while between 1997 and 2008 it showed a budget surplus. Without Catalonia, Spain’s Social Security would have only had a budget surplus between 2003 and 2007.

A poll taken by the Catalan Survey Institute points out that only 19.9% of Catalans would be against organising a referendum asking if Catalonia should be a new independent European state. 6% would be undecided. The poll also reflects electoral preferences in the next Catalan elections, scheduled on 25th November. 26.3% of citizens would vote for the ruling Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), which would clearly win the elections. However, those undecided represent 34.6% of the people interviewed. The votes for the main opposition party in Catalonia, the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), would plummet to only 3.1%. The parties clearly supporting the self-determination (CiU, ERC and ICV-EUiA) would become Catalonia’s first, second and third parties.

The Spanish Foreign Affairs Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, states that the claim for Catalonia’s independence during the last FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid Clásico football game “damages Spain’s brand”. On the contrary, the Catalan President, Artur Mas, praised the demonstration for its peaceful and democratic nature, and for “projecting our identity to the world”. Furthermore, the Spokesperson for the Catalan Government, Francesc Homs, considered García-Margallo’s statements to be “undemocratic” for not accepting “the free and democratic expression of the people at Camp Nou”. Thousands of Catalan independence flags were shown at the match – many more than in any other game ever. Furthermore, on several occasions, a large part of the stadium shouted pro-independence chants.

The ALDE and the Greens/EFA consider the statements made by Alejo Vidal-Quadras, Vice-President of the European Parliament and member of the People’s Party (PP), to be “a scandal”. Last week, three Catalan MEPs asked the EP President, Martin Schulz, either to push Vidal-Quadras to apologise or to adopt disciplinary measures against him. Schulz appealed to freedom of expression and said that Catalan voters should judge Vidal-Quadras, elected from a closed party list in a single Spanish constituency. Guy Verhofstadt (ALDE) and Daniel Cohn-Bendit (Greens/EFA) reject Schulz’s cold answer and ask for “a formal debate” on the issue. Now, Vidal-Quadras says he was being “ironical”.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, signed the dissolution of the Catalan Parliament calling for early elections on Monday. He stated that Catalans have “to vote without fear”, referring to Spain’s threats to veto Catalonia’s access to the EU or even with a military intervention. Mas sent a warning to Spain: “act as a mature and sensible state” and “watch out” as the world is looking. Furthermore, Mas guaranteed that Catalonia’s self-determination will be “a totally democratic and peaceful process”. Besides, European Commission’s Vice President Reding stated that Catalonia’s independence from Spain does not mean its exclusion from the EU. “International legislation does not say” that Catalonia would be excluded, she said in an interview with a newspaper from Seville.

Members of the European Parliament from Catalan parties have asked the European Commission “if it would suspend Spain’s rights as a Member State of the European Council in the case that force was used against the decisions of the Catalan Parliament”. They have also asked the President of the European Parliament (EP) “to adopt measures if Vidal-Quadras does not publicly apologise”. The Vice-President of the EP, the Catalan Alejo Vidal-Quadras, famous for his Spanish nationalist stance, said yesterday that the Spanish Government should “suspend Catalonia’s autonomy” and “send a general to lead the Guardia Civil” in order to take control. In the past few days, Spanish nationalists and retired army members have threatened a military intervention if Catalonia insists in its self-determination process.