scotland

Michael Keating, Director of the Edinburgh-based Centre on Constitutional Change, said in an interview with CNA that “Catalans need Scotland more than Scotland needs Catalonia”, because the Scots “have in recent years been doing much better than the Catalan independence people: they got a referendum, they got the right to self-determination and they got more powers”. The President of the SNP-Friends of Catalonia group, David McDonald, said that he sees similarities between Catalonia and Scotland but warned that the Scottish people “wouldn’t have accepted the kind of censorship or approach” from the UK that Spain takes with Catalonia.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, has stated that the independence process will be officially launched if pro-independence parties obtain an absolute majority of the MPs elected in the forthcoming Catalan Parliament elections, to be transformed into a ‘de facto’ plebiscite on independence from Spain. Mas emphasised that during the last 3 years, Catalan parties have been trying to organise a legal and mutually-agreed vote but that the Spanish Government has not wanted to talk even about it, despite more than 1.5 million citizens demonstrating each year on the streets and the results of the previous Catalan elections of November 2012. However, Mas stated he would still “exchange the forthcoming elections for a mutually-agreed referendum”, but highlighted that the Spanish Government has only left the transformation of regular elections into a plebiscite for Catalans to freely and democratically vote on their future as a country, an option that Mas already identified as the last resort in 2013. Therefore, according to him, “in elections, MPs are counted”, “if we were having a referendum we would be counting votes, but this is not the case”, he stressed.

Last April, Banc Sabadell filed a takeover offer on 100% of the shares of the UK lender TSB, partially owned by LLoyds. On Monday, the Catalan bank announced it had already exceeded the 75% minimum bid of the takeover offer, reaching 81.23% of TSB shares. However, this percentage is still likely to increase in the upcoming days, since there are 14 remaining days till the end of the takeover's acceptance period. In order to fund the transaction, the Catalan corporation will carry out a €1.61 billion capital increase (€1,607 million). Current shareholders have a preference call in this capital increase. Banc Sabadell, is one of the few banks to emerge stronger from a financial crisis that has redrawn Spain’s banking sector. Unlike many of its Spanish rivals, the bank is in good shape reporting a 50% increase in annual profits at the end of 2014 to €371.7 million. Since 2007, it has doubled in size and is now Spain’s 5^th largest bank. It achieved this mainly through an energetic programme of acquisitions in Spain and abroad. 

Spain is home to around 300,000 registered British nationals, 20,000 of whom reside in Catalonia and retain the right to vote in the forthcoming general elections in the UK on the 7^th of May, according to date from the Spanish Statistics Institute given in 2014. The election this year is especially important as polls suggest that no combination of parties will win a stable majority which could be the end of the road for a strong government. Moreover, the election is more important than usual for British nationals living in Spain as in the rest of Europe as Cameron has promised that a Conservative victory will renegotiate Britain’s relations with the EU and put the result to an in/out referendum on membership by the end of 2017. A British exit from Europe could potentially lead to British nationals abroad facing several difficulties in regards to freedom of movement across Europe. On the other hand, May 7th could also mark the point of no return for the troubled union between England and Scotland, due to a surge in support for the secessionist Scottish National Party (SNP).

Last week, TSB announced Banc Sabadell's interest in purchasing all of the shares of the British bank, which is partially owned by Lloyd's. The board of the 6^th largest bank in the United Kingdom then said they would welcome the Catalan bank's takeover bid, which they set at £3.40 per share (equivalent to €4.80). This meant that Banc Sabadell would buy TSB for £1.7 billion, or €2.4 billion. At that time, the Catalan bank denied any definitive agreement had been reached and simply confirmed that there were some talks in progress. A week later, Banc Sabadell has finally announced and approved the takeover bid, on the same terms released last week. In order to fund the transaction, the Catalan corporation will carry out a €1.6 billion increase in capital. This purchase will significantly strengthen Banc Sabadell's internationalisation, dramatically increasing its presence in the UK and in London's financial circles.

TSB, which is the seventh-largest bank in the United Kingdom, confirmed on Wednesday that they have received a preliminary takeover bid of £1.7 billion (equivalent to €2.35 billion) filed by Banc Sabadell. The Catalan bank would have offered £3.40 per share (€4.80) and would be ready to buy the entire British financial entity, 50% of which is still owned by Lloyds. Sources from Sabadell have confirmed takeover talks, but they stressed that they are still preliminary in nature. After the news was released, shares of TSB increased by 26.4% while those of Banc Sabadell dropped by 7.5%, causing the Spanish Stock Exchange Authority (CNMV) to temporarily suspend trading in the Catalan bank. When Banc Sabadell returned on the stock market, its shares continued to decrease, dropping by 10.5%, but they partially recovered and ended the day with a 6.6% loss.

On the same day, both the Spanish Justice Minister, Rafael Català, and the 'number 2' of the governing People's Party (PP), María Dolores de Cospedal, compared Catalonia's self-determination process with the Fascist and Nazi movements of the 1930s. Such a comparison trivialises Nazism and is highly offensive for millions of Catalan citizens. The Catalan pro-independence movement mainly demands to hold a democratic vote on independence, as in Scotland, and it has always acted in a peaceful and festive way. The expert in European populism, Meindert Fennema, stated he considered that to compare Catalan self-determination with Nazism to be "ridiculous" and "nonsensical". On top of this, he highlighted that Catalonia's society is highly inclusive, since it has welcomed and integrated millions of immigrants in the last 100 years. In fact, 70% of the Catalan population has origins from outside Catalonia and 80% of the Catalan population want to hold a self-determination vote. 

Once again the Spanish Government and the People’s Party (PP) have closed the door to making any concession to Catalonia with the objective of reducing support for independence. On Saturday, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, travelled to Catalonia for the first time since last May’s European Elections to participate in a closed-door PP event. Rajoy insisted on affirming that November 9’s symbolic self-determination vote had been “a failure” of the pro-independence forces. He accused the Catalan President of “heading nowhere” and of ignoring “2 out of 3 Catalans”, a figure arrived at by adding all the people who did not vote on November 9. Once again, Rajoy refused any negotiation or to make any concession. On Monday, the PP’s leader in Catalonia, Alícia Sánchez-Camacho, stated that “Catalonia’s solution does not include third ways [built] with concessions”. Furthermore, the PP asked for a greater presence of the Spanish Government in Catalonia, which means recentralization.

“There is one thing that I always find beneficial […] and that is to listen to people; not necessarily because you agree but, without listening, you will never get any wiser yourself”, stated Margrethe Vestager, the new European Commissioner for Competition, when she was asked about Catalonia’s self-determination process. However, Vestager, who used to be Denmark’s Deputy Prime Minister, also added that Catalonia’s self-determination debate should take place “without European interference”. The new Commissioner highlighted that it is “a Spanish-Catalonian issue” and that she has “a deep respect for countries organising themselves in different ways”, underlining the diversity of “constitutions and different histories” as a great European value. She explained that in Denmark they have “a long tradition of referenda” but that she “will not prescribe how other people should do things”.

More than 200 elected members of the European, Spanish and Catalan Parliaments and municipal councils from Catalonia have presented and started to sign on Wednesday an international complaint against the Spanish Government that will be sent to the United Nations, the European Parliament, the European Commission, the Council of Europe and Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). They are formally accusing the Spanish Government of "violating the right of the Catalan people to decide on its own political future" and "banning the exercise of democracy ". They list reasons of democratic legitimacy, stress the sustained self-determination demands and highlight the manifold Catalan attempts to negotiate and hold a legal vote. They also emphasise the Spanish Government's total blocking attitude and they announce that Catalan representatives "feel legitimate to launch all the necessary political and legal actions". Finally, they also ask those international organisations to act in order "to guarantee that Catalonia's citizenry can democratically decide on its future".

The Spanish Airport Authority (AENA) has announced that this coming winter season over 8.4 million seats will be on offer on flights out of Barcelona El Prat Airport, an increase of 6.8% compared to last year. Seats on intercontinental destinations have increased by 13.6% over last year. The number of flight operations (take-offs and landings) is anticipated to be 47,000: an increase of 4.1% to 2013. In contrast, the airport of Girona Costa Brava (northern Catalonia) has announced it will offer 16 routes this winter season, 20% less than last year. Ryanair has implemented the cuts it announced last May and will no longer be connecting Girona to London or Paris. Ryanair and Wizz Air will be the only airlines flying from Girona to Kiev, and only Ten Airwais will operate charter flights to Nador, Morocco. This summer, Girona airport connected passengers to 69 destinations.

The Law on Consultation Votes, which will be used to call the non-binding consultation vote on independence scheduled for the 9^th of November, has been approved by 79% of the Catalan Parliament, with the only opposition being from Spanish nationalists People's Party (PP) and Ciutadans (C's). This bill was already foreseen in the 2006 Statute of Autonomy, Catalonia's main law after the Constitution, but it had not been approved yet. Now, once the law is published on Catalonia's Official Journal (DOGC), the Catalan President will immediately sign the Decree calling November's vote. The Spanish Government announced last week it already had two appeals ready to be filed to the Constitutional Court – even though the definitive law had not been approved yet. If the Constitutional Court accepts the appeals, it will immediately suspend the Catalan Law and the Decree for a 5-month temporary period, which could be extended until it reaches a final decision.

A few hours after the Scottish people decided to remain within the United Kingdom through a referendum, the Catalan President and the Spanish Prime Minister congratulated the Scots, although they sent completely different messages. Through a recorded video message, Spain's PM, Mariano Rajoy, stated that Scotland has rejected the "severe consequences" of "splitting up from the UK and the EU". Rajoy stressed that Scots have chosen "between security and true risks" and that the vote "has strictly respected legality". In a press conference, the Catalan President, Artur Mas, stated that the UK has given the world "a democracy lesson". Mas stated that Catalonia's self-determination process is "strengthened" by the Scottish referendum. He insisted that his main priority is not independence but allowing the Catalan people to vote on their future.

"Without a doubt the independence movement would never have been so successful without Web 2.0 technologies" says Scottish academic Kathryn Crameri. In the last few years support for independence in Catalonia has grown considerably, with around 50% of the Catalan population supporting the movement in 2014, compared to some 15% 10 years ago. In his new book, 'Sobirania.Cat', prominent Catalan journalist Saül Gordillo explains how this can be intrinsically linked to the steady rise of online activity in Catalonia, saying that the growth in the movement would be "unthinkable" without the Internet. Albert Royo, Secretary General of Catalonia's Public Diplomacy Council, explained why pro-independence activists are so reliant on the Internet. "The diplomatic channels of communication are being controlled by the Spanish Government", he said, and alternative channels had to be found.

The European Union will adopt a "pragmatic approach" and employ "common sense" in the case of an independent Catalonia or Scotland and would not work to expel them, according to experts gathered at a conference on self-determination on Friday at the prestigious Sciences Po University in Paris. At the conference, which was organised with the support of the Catalan public-private soft diplomacy council Diplocat, experts highlighted the importance of "international recognition" for the process of acceptance of an independent Catalonia within the EU. Graham Avery, member of the Brussels-based think tank European Policy Centre (EPC) and Honorary Director General of the European Commission, said that the EU "has no problem in accepting changes in the borders of states", but that it has never experienced a secession which would create "two new member states".