referendum

The leader of the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC), Oriol Junqueras, has confirmed to the incumbent President of the Catalan Government and leader of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), Artur Mas, that they do not want to sit in the Catalan Executive. However, Junqueras guaranteed Mas ERC’s support for approving the main issues, such as Mas’ re-election as President, next year’s budget and the self-determination referendum. In fact, this last point is the ERC’s main condition for the agreement. The CiU had been insisting on the need to make a stable pact with either the ERC or the PSC, after last Sunday’s electoral results, which would include sharing the government responsibilities in such difficult economic times.

The CiU leader and incumbent President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, stated that they will start negotiations with the Left-Wing Catalan Independence Party (ERC) and the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) to set up a stable pact. The ERC, which is now the second-largest party in the Catalan Parliament, said it would not sit in the Government but they will offer stable parliamentary support if the CiU does not abandon the self-determination agenda. Besides, the PSC stated it would not give its support to Mas as their “job is to build an alternative”. On Sunday, the CiU won the elections but lost 90,000 votes and 12 MPs. However, the parties defending the organisation of a self-determination referendum within the next four years had 345,000 more votes. The parties defending the unity of Spain had 201,000 more votes but lost 1 MP.

The parties defending the organisation of an independence referendum within the next four years increase their support and obtain 64.4% of the seats in the new Catalan Parliament. In addition, the parties clearly defending independence get 54.4% of the MPs. The Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), which has been running the Catalan Government and aimed for “an exceptional majority”, loses 12 MPs thus obtaining only 50 seats in the 135-seat Parliament. The Left-Wing Independence Party (ERC) becomes the second-largest force, increasing the number of its MPs from 10 to 21. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) drops from 28 to 20 seats. The People’s Party, which currently runs the Spanish Government, increases their support by 1 MP, obtaining 19 seats. Support for the Catalan Green Socialist and Communist Coalition (ICV-EUiA) grows from 10 to 13 MPs. The anti-Catalan nationalism and left-wing party Ciutadans (C’s) triple their results and obtain 9 MPs. The radical left-wing and independence coalition CUP enters the Parliament with 3 MPs.

Nobody doubts that the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) will win the elections again, but it is not clear if it will obtain an absolute majority or even lose some MPs. However, these elections are not so much about parties but they have de facto turned into a plebiscite on the Catalan peoples’ right to self-determination and the organisation of an independence referendum. If the parties defending the organisation of a self-determination referendum and independence clearly win the elections as expected, Spain would face its deepest political crisis of the last three decades. Knowing this, the campaign has been the tensest ever, including dirty tricks being played by Spanish nationalists against the CiU. However, many citizens will also vote while thinking about the last two years of budget cuts. Thus, left-wing parties supporting independence are likely to get more support.

The incumbent President of the Catalan Government and the main CiU candidate, Artur Mas, is asking for massive support in order to have the strength to negotiate the organisation of an independence referendum. The CiU is focusing the re-election campaign on the self-determination process, heading away from the unpopular budget cuts it has been implementing over the last two years. The CiU is currently Catalonia’s largest party, running most of the public offices. It has 62 MPs in the 135-seat Parliament and gained 38.43% of the votes in the 2010 elections. Polls give them between 61 and 71 seats, in the best scenario obtaining an absolute majority. However, the CiU campaign has been completely derailed nine days before the elections by the Spanish nationalist newspaper El Mundo, which accused Mas and other top CiU leaders of corruption. These accusations turned out to be false and Mas is now accusing the Spanish Government of playing dirty tricks.

For the last 30 years, the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) have been Catalonia’s two main political forces, running the main public institutions and getting electoral results far higher than the rest of the parties. However, in 2006, the PSC started to decline and in the last Catalan elections it obtained its worst results ever, with 28 MPs and 18.38% of the votes. However, the party seems to be continuing its nose-dive and polls predict it could get between 22 and 15 MPs on the 25th of November, which could mean falling from being the second to third or even fourth-largest party in the Catalan Parliament. After a leadership change last December, the party led by Pere Navarro continued to marginalise its more pro-Catalan-identity members in top positions. The PSC defends a federal and pluri-national Spain, while recognising Catalonia’s nationhood.

As opposed to the rest of Spain, the PP is a small party within Catalonia. In the last Catalan elections, they got their best results ever, increasing from 14 to 18 seats in the 135-seat Catalan Parliament and obtaining 12.37% of the votes. In the last elections, the Catalan branch of the PP , led by Alícia Sánchez-Camacho, focused on immigration and the economic crisis. Now, while they are running the Spanish Government and have negotiated many austerity measures in Catalonia, the PP is focusing on fighting the “independence delirium”, as they call it. All its leaders, including Rajoy, are participating intensively in the campaign. The PP presents itself as the “useful vote” to stop Catalonia’s self-determination process, as they think of Spain as not being a pluri-national state. Polls give them between 16 and 19 MPs and they could become the second largest party in the Catalan Parliament.

The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, held a debate in Brussels, at an event organised by the think tank Friends of Europe. Mas praised Catalonia’s European and democratic traditions. He talked about the self-determination process he is leading, which will be “scrupulously democratic”, “absolutely peaceful”, “demonstrably transparent”, “with an ample majority” and “within the framework of the European Union”. “What I want for Catalonia is for it to be its own State that must, necessarily, share interdependencies within a more united and stronger Europe”, he stated. If Catalonia could not remain in the EU, he would still ask the Catalan people about their future, “as it is the most important thing”. The opposition parties criticised Mas’ trip before the start of the electoral campaign.

The report, published by the British Parliament, has been drafted by a senior expert on the enlargement of the European Union, Honorary Director-General of the European Commission and Senior Adviser at the European Policy Centre. The arguments in the document also apply to the Catalan case. The text states that “for practical and political reasons [Scottish people] could not be asked to leave the EU and apply for readmission” since “having been members of the EU for 40 years, [they] have acquired rights as European citizens”. The analysis concludes that “negotiations on the terms of membership would take place in the period between the referendum and the planned date of independence” and that “the EU would adopt a simplified procedure for the negotiations”.

The Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) presented its electoral programme for the next Catalan elections, to be held on the 25th of November. CiU’s leader and incumbent President of the Catalan Government – who is running for re-election, Artur Mas, stated that “if we want a leading Catalonia in Europe, we need a state structure, which we do not have”. CiU’s electoral programme talks about creating “state structures” but it does not openly mention the word “independence”; however, it is the closest a CiU electoral programme has ever been to supporting an independent Catalonia. The document points towards Europe and is called ‘Catalonia 2020’. “We want to be stuck with Europe. If we were to choose a partner, Europe would be our current marriage choice”, stated Mas.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, had previously accused the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, of having blackmailed him by trying to “impose the fiscal agreement or accept the consequences” in last September’s meeting, when Mas proposed a specific fiscal agreement between Catalonia and Spain. The Catalan President denied having blackmailed the Spanish PM. According to Mas, Rajoy “did not want to negotiate a fiscal agreement” as he considered that “Catalonia is not as badly treated” as Catalans say. The Catalan President said he explained to Rajoy what would happen “if the answer to all Catalan claims is always ‘no’”. “It is not a threat, it is describing the reality. The President of the Catalan Government’s duty is to inform [the Spanish PM] about Catalonia’s situation” Mas added.

The day the United Kingdom and Scotland signed the agreement to organise the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, the Spanish Justice Minister, Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón, states that the Spanish Government will not agree to organise or even negotiate on a referendum on Catalonia’s independence. Furthermore, the same day, Jaime Mayor Oreja, the leader of the Spanish Euro MPs from the People’s Party (PP), proposed “facing” the Catalan independence movement as was done earlier with ETA’s terrorism. Two weeks ago, Mayor Oreja had already linked the Catalan independence movement with the Basque terrorist group ETA. The Catalan President, Artur Mas, said that if Madrid does not authorise the referendum, Catalonia will appeal to European and international institutions.

A poll taken by the Catalan Survey Institute points out that only 19.9% of Catalans would be against organising a referendum asking if Catalonia should be a new independent European state. 6% would be undecided. The poll also reflects electoral preferences in the next Catalan elections, scheduled on 25th November. 26.3% of citizens would vote for the ruling Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU), which would clearly win the elections. However, those undecided represent 34.6% of the people interviewed. The votes for the main opposition party in Catalonia, the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), would plummet to only 3.1%. The parties clearly supporting the self-determination (CiU, ERC and ICV-EUiA) would become Catalonia’s first, second and third parties.

15% of the MPs oppose the decision, all members of Spanish nationalist parties. The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) abstains, although one of its veteran MPs backs the citizen consultation. This was the last vote of the Catalan Parliament this term, as early elections have been called, on 25th November, which may turn into a plebiscite on the right to self-determination. The Spanish Government has stated it would immediately block such citizen vote by bringing it to the Constitutional Court, since it has to authorise any referendum in Spain. Furthermore, the day before it stated it will “calmly and firmly” oppose Catalonia’s independence process.

In the Catalan Parliament’s main annual debate, the parties assessed the current situation and the Catalan President’s speech from yesterday. The parties that openly support Catalonia’s independence backed the Catalan President and leader of the Centre-Right Catalan Nationalist Coalition (CiU) but asked to rush proceedings. Those supporting the right to self-determination but not necessarily independence and those directly opposing independence criticised CiU’s policies for fighting the crisis and its focus on the process to create a state. The President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, offered a detailed reply to each intervention. However, he also made an announcement: if he is re-elected President, he will organise a referendum on self-rule, even if the Spanish Government bans it.