macroeconomics

Barcelona's Chamber of Commerce has predicted that the Catalan economy will grow by 2.7% in 2015 and 3% in 2016. The latest estimates made by the Chamber in February foresaw a growth of 2.5% in the Catalan GDP for this year. The President of the Chamber of Commerce, Miquel Valls, said that this growth "has a lot to do with the surprising recovery of domestic demand, driven by job creation, and increased confidence in the economy." Valls also said that the depreciation of the euro and oil prices are factors that have contributed to the rise in GDP. Besides, the Spanish economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2015 according to the IMF or by 2.8% or 2.9% according to the Bank of Spain and the Spanish Government respectively.

The number of unemployed people in Catalonia has risen by 1,500 people during the first quarter of 2015. The percentage has increased for a second consecutive period although the figures are better than a year ago. According to figures from the Spanish Government's Labour Force Survey, released on Thursday, 758,000 people are out of work in Catalonia and the unemployment rate has risen in quarterly terms. However the first quarter of 2015 has 82,100 less unemployed people than those in the same period in 2014, when the rate was 22.1%. Throughout the whole of Spain, the unemployment rate also increased since the previous quarter, reaching 23.78%.

In Catalonia, prices rose in March by 0.7% compared to February, due to price increases registered in clothing and fuel, according to the Spanish Institute of Statistics (INE). However, the annual inflation rate remained negative for the 5^th consecutive month, standing at -0.3%. Despite this bad news, March's annual inflation rate was higher than February's -0.8%. The Catalan trend reflects partly that registered in Spain as a whole, where prices rose in March by 0.6%. However, the annual inflation rate remained negative, standing at -0.7%. For Madrid, it represents the 9^th consecutive month of negative inflation, although the situation in March is better than February's -1.1% annual rate.  

The GDP of Catalonia increased by 1.5% during 2014, according to the definitive figures released by the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat) on Friday. However, on the same day, the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE) published its economic growth figures for 2014 and announced that the Catalan economy had grown by 1.4% last year, the same rate as Spain. In any case, both figures are quite positive after many years of economic crisis and slowdown. In fact, 2014 has been the best year since 2007, when the Catalan economy grew by 3.2% according to the Idescat. The final figure for 2014 is higher than the provisional 1.2% growth rate previously announced. Following European Union instructions, the calculations for last year include R&D activities, as well as prostitution and trafficking of drugs and tobacco.

In February, prices in Catalonia increased by 0.2% in monthly terms but decreased by 0.8% in annual terms, according to figures released on Thursday by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). The inflation rate in Catalonia has been in negative territory for the last 4 months, despite the improvement in February. The monthly increase in fuel prices has been the main factor behind February's positive figures. In Spain as a whole, prices also increased, by 0.2%, over the last month but showed a 1.1% decline in annual terms. Spain's annual inflation rate has been negative for the last 8 months. Therefore, there is a serious risk of deflation, which could represent a threat by making it more difficult to pay back debt.

At the end of February 2015, there were 581,124 people registered with the Catalan Public Employment Service (SOC) as being unemployed, according to figures released on Tuesday by the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security. This represents 1,645 fewer jobseekers than were registered at the end of January (582,769), a 0.28% drop. In addition, at the end of February 2015 there were 48,462 fewer registered jobseekers than a year ago, which marks the largest annual decline for registered unemployment in the last 17 years for a February month. This represents a 7.7% fall in the last 12 months. The data released on Tuesday shows an encouraging trend for Spain as a whole as well, since registered unemployment fell by 13,538 people in monthly terms, a 0.3% drop. In annual terms, the Spanish labour market posted a 6.24% drop, with 300,333 fewer registered jobseekers.

Catalan GDP grew by 1.3% in 2014 and will increase by 2.5% in 2015, claims Barcelona’s Chamber of Commerce. “The Catalan economy had a very good performance in 2014, even better than that of Spain as whole, and this acceleration will continue during 2015”, stated the President of the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce, Miquel Valls, on Wednesday. The day before, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, announced a revised economic forecast for 2015 and stated that Spain’s economy would grow by 2.4% in 2015. Valls highlighted that all the macroeconomic indicators show positive figures for the first time in the last 7 years, which makes him think that Catalonia’s “recovery from the crisis is a fact”. The industrial sector, exports, construction and job creation are the main reasons behind those predictions, which also benefit from external factors such as the fall in oil prices.

Exports from Catalonia increased by 3.1% in 2014, reaching €60.2 billion, meaning that more than 30% of the Catalan GDP is sold outside of Spain. Furthermore, Catalan exports grew more than those of Spain as a whole, which increased by 2.5% last year, reaching €240 billion. This means that 25.1% of all Spain’s exports come from Catalonia’s economy, some way ahead of the Madrid region, which produces 11.7% of Spain’s total exports. In addition, the growth rate of Catalan exports was much higher than the Eurozone average (exports from which grew by 1.8%) and also higher than that of EU Member States such as France (-0.2%), UK (-11.1%) and Italy (+2%). The figures posted this Wednesday confirm the good health of Catalonia’s export sector and the high degree of internationalisation of its economy.

Prices in Catalonia dropped by 1.4% in January compared to the figures for December, which represents the biggest monthly decrease ever registered on the records of the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE) (since 2002, when comparable data started to be compiled). Furthermore, the annual inflation rate posted at the end of February reached -0.9%, which is the lowest figure since July 2009, in the middle of the first economic recession. The sustained decrease of oil prices is the main reason for such results and Catalonia has now accumulated 3 consecutive months with negative rates within the Consumption Price Index (IPC) in annual terms. In Spain as a whole, prices dropped by 1.6% in monthly terms at the end of January, which is also the biggest decrease within the series of comparable records. Furthermore, Spain’s annual inflation reached -1.3%, the lowest since July 2007. 

Another positive figure has emerged to confirm the economic recovery after years of crisis. Catalonia’s GDP grew by 1.2% over the course of 2014, which are the best figures since 2007, before the financial crisis, according to early data released on Thursday by the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat) and the Catalan Finance Ministry. The figure is higher than the 0.9% economic growth foreseen in the Catalan Government’s budget for 2014 (approved in late 2013) but is lower than an early forecast made in March, when a 1.5% growth was predicted. Besides this growth in the Catalan economy, in Spain as a whole, the economy grew by 1.4%, according to early data released by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). Furthermore, the Catalan economy grew by 0.4% in the last quarter of 2014 compared to September figures and by 1.5% in annual terms. In the first, second, and third quarters it grew by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively (in quarterly terms).

For the first time in 7 years, in 2014 Catalan shops increased their overall sales figures compared to the previous year, growing by 1.4%. Furthermore, the figures are even more positive looking at the sales in December, which grew by 7.4% compared to the same month in 2013, according to data released on Thursday by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). The Catalan figures are better than the Spanish average, both for 2014’s overall figures and for those from December. In Spain as a whole, retail increased by 0.9% last year and by 5.4% in December. The worst year for Catalonia’s retail sector was 2011, when sales dropped by 6.2% in annual terms. Other years, they stagnated, such as in 2010. 

Catalonia posted a 19.88% unemployment rate at the end of 2014, almost 4 percentage points lower than the rate for the whole of Spain, which was 23.70%. On 31 December 2014, there were 756,500 unemployed people in Catalonia, which represents 83,000 less jobseekers than a year ago, according to the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). Despite the positive annual results, unemployment increased by 30,500 people in quarterly terms, compared to figures from the end of September 2014. Back then, Catalonia's unemployment rate was 19.10%. In terms of jobs, the Catalan economy ended 2014 with 49,300 more people in employment than at the end of 2013, reaching 3,048,100 workers. The Catalan Government is said to be "moderately optimistic" with the figures and highlighted that both 2014 and 2013 ended with less unemployed in annual terms, accumulating two consecutive years of decreased numbers.

Catalonia ended 2014 with an annual inflation rate of -0.7%, the lowest rate since 1978, when records for the Spain’s Autonomous Communities began, according to data published on Thursday by the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). The previous month, at the end of November, the annual consumer price index registered a rate of -0.3% in Catalonia. In the whole of Spain, the annual inflation rate at the end of December 2014 was -1%. This is the lowest rate registered since December 1961, when comparable data started to be collected. At the end of November, prices were decreasing by -0.4% in annual terms in Spain as a whole. Therefore, both in Catalonia and in Spain overall, last year ended with a significant price drop, mostly due to falling fuel prices.

At the end of 2014, there were 575,948 people registered with the Catalan Public Employment Service (SOC) as being unemployed, according to figures released this week by the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security. This represents 48,924 fewer jobseekers than were on the register at the end of 2013; a 7.83% drop achieved during the last 12 months. During 2014, registered unemployment dropped by 5.39% in the whole of Spain. There were 4,447,711 people registered as unemployed throughout the country, which represents 253,627 fewer jobseekers than a year ago, the largest reduction in unemployment since 1998. 

The Catalan economy grew by 1.5% at the end of the 3^rd quarter of 2014 in annual terms, while at the end of June it was growing at a rate of 1.3%. Catalonia has therefore accumulated 4 consecutive quarters with positive annual economic growth. However, although the economic recovery has slowed somewhat, growth remains positive, as other figures show. In quarterly terms, Catalonia’s GDP increased by 0.3% between July and September, which represents a drop from the 0.5% growth registered for April – June and also for January – March. Meanwhile, in Spain as a whole, the economy grew by 1.6% in annual terms at the end of September and by 0.5% in quarterly terms. The European Union is posting the same growth rates as Catalonia: 1.5% in annual terms and 0.3% in quarterly figures.