economic recovery

Catalans are holding their municipal elections on Sunday, while the elections to the Catalan Parliament are to be held in September, as opposed to other parts of Spain, where they are voting for their regional parliaments on Sunday. These municipal elections come after 7 years of economic crisis and also with very uncertain political horizons. Two debates have dominated the campaign: Catalonia’s independence and the rise of new or secondary parties that promise to change the current model. For many people in Catalonia, Sunday’s elections will be a first stage of the ‘de facto’ plebiscite on independence that is going to take place with the Catalan elections on 27 September. It is also the opportunity to support changing the current political, economic and social model, with the rise of alternative left coalitions. Furthermore, majorities and town halls go through significant changes, particularly in Barcelona and the cities of its Metropolitan Area, where there are no clear winners forecast and surprises are likely to happen.

Catalan exports totalled €15.66 billion for the period January-March 2015, a 6.6% growth on figures from the 1^st quarter of 2014. This represents a new historic high, setting a new record for Catalonia’s export sector, which has been growing strongly over the last few years. As well as this, exports in March increased by 15.4%, reaching the highest amount ever recorded for a single month. Exports from Catalonia during the first quarter of 2015 represent 25.7% of Spain’s total exports. Regarding Catalonia’s imports, they totalled €18.48 billion, a 4.4% increase. Catalonia’s trade deficit reached €2.82 billion, representing a 6.3% drop on figures from the previous quarter.

The 19^th edition of Barcelona’s International Building & Construction Show opened its doors on Tuesday, rebranded as 'Beyond Building Barcelona-Construmat'. The event – which is held every two years – will be on until Saturday 23 May, hosting around 300 exhibitors from 15 different countries. For the first time after 7 years of continuous decline for the construction sector, Construmat – the most important trade fair for this industry in Spain – kicks off at a time of gradual recovery for this sector, according to the figures of the last few months. For Josep Miarnau, Chairman of the show, this year represents a turning point and the end of a cycle. Held in the Gran Via venue of Fira de Barcelona, the show is organised around 4 main thematic pillars: Innovation, Design, Renovation and Sustainability. Moreover, internationalisation will play an important role as well, with 145 projects from all over the world at the tendering stage.

The German car manufacturer has announced massive investment in two of its factories in Spain: its plant located in Martorell (Greater Barcelona) and its factory in Navarra. In particular, Volkswagen expressed its intention to invest €4.2 billion between 2015 and 2019 in what many newspapers have called "the largest industrial investment ever made in Spain". According to estimates made by the Catalan Business and Employment Minister Felip Puig, it is likely that more than half of the total investment will be concentrated on the plant in Martorell, which builds Seat cars as well as models from other brands of the Volkswagen group such as Audi. In a meeting with the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, Volkswagen Global Sales Vice President, Javier García Sanz, stated that the two plants that will receive the multibillion investment are among "the best factories of the Group".

House sales in Catalonia have recorded a double-digit growth rate in March compared to the same period last year, official data from the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE) has highlighted. The number of house sales was 4,334 units, which represents a 10.2% annual increase over March 2014 figures. So far, Catalonia has accumulated six consecutive months of positive annual rates for house sales, and all its provinces have followed this trend with the exception of Tarragona. In particular, Barcelona Province stands out with an above-the-average 15.66% annual increase. In Spain as a whole, the number of houses sold in March was 27,280 units, a 2.1% increase in annual terms and the 7^th consecutive month of positive annual rates.

The 38^th edition of the Barcelona International Motor Show kicked off on Thursday, with a session dedicated to journalists and industry professionals. On the first press day of the event, 11 carmakers unveiled some of their new products. In particular, SEAT – the Barcelona-based car manufacturer which forms part of the Volkswagen group – unveiled the new 2015 models of the Ibiza and Alhambra ranges, two world firsts. The Ibiza's new model retains the exterior design of its predecessor but incorporates state-of-the-art technology to allow smartphone use while driving. The International Motor Show will open its doors to the general public on Saturday 9 May, with 38 international brands – 17 more than two years ago, marking a turning point after the darkest moments of the economic crisis.

The Catalan economy has now accumulated 8 consecutive quarters of economic growth, posting a 0.9% increase in GDP between January and March, according to provisional data released on Thursday by the Catalan Finance Ministry and the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat). Regarding inter-annual figures, the Catalan economy had grown by 2.4% by the end of the first quarter of 2015 compared to figures from the same period in 2014. These last figures confirm a strengthening of inter-annual growth, since last December it reached 1.9%, and an overall strengthening of the Catalan economy and its recovery from the crisis of the last years. The recovery of the internal demand and the continuing good performance of the export and tourism sectors are the main engines behind the positive figures from the first quarter of 2015. In addition, the industrial sector has been growing for the last 3 years and construction has started to grow again after almost 7 years of continuous decline.

Barcelona's Chamber of Commerce has predicted that the Catalan economy will grow by 2.7% in 2015 and 3% in 2016. The latest estimates made by the Chamber in February foresaw a growth of 2.5% in the Catalan GDP for this year. The President of the Chamber of Commerce, Miquel Valls, said that this growth "has a lot to do with the surprising recovery of domestic demand, driven by job creation, and increased confidence in the economy." Valls also said that the depreciation of the euro and oil prices are factors that have contributed to the rise in GDP. Besides, the Spanish economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2015 according to the IMF or by 2.8% or 2.9% according to the Bank of Spain and the Spanish Government respectively.

The number of mortgages on homes in Catalonia registered a 32.4% increase in February compared to the same figure from February 2014. This annual increase strengthens an uninterrupted trend of 10 consecutive months of annual growth. This figure is particularly important taking into account that the crash of the construction and real estate sectors, as well as the lack of bank loans, were some of the main elements of the double economic crisis that affected Catalonia and the rest of Spain between 2008 and 2014. The recovery of the mortgage market is yet another indicator of a broader recovery of the real estate market and the overall economy, although its effects on some aspects of people's lives will still need time to be noticed, such as in the reduction of the high levels of unemployment.

At the end of March 2015, there were 571,655 people registered as unemployed in Catalonia. This is 9,469 fewer jobseekers in comparison with February 2015, representing a 1.63% drop. It is also the largest monthly decline in absolute terms since 1996. In annual terms, this was the biggest drop in the last two decades, as the number of jobseekers fell by 52,812 people (-8.46%). Moreover, registered unemployment in Catalonia declined for the 21^st consecutive month in annual terms. In Spain as a whole, at the end of March 2015 the number of people registered as unemployed stood at 4.45 million, with 60,214 fewer jobseekers than in February (which represents a 1.33% drop, the largest decline in 13 years). In annual terms, registered unemployment fell by 343,927 (-7.17 %), a positive sign considering that during the last 6 years it had grown in the month of March by an average of more than 35,000 people.

The GDP of Catalonia increased by 1.5% during 2014, according to the definitive figures released by the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat) on Friday. However, on the same day, the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE) published its economic growth figures for 2014 and announced that the Catalan economy had grown by 1.4% last year, the same rate as Spain. In any case, both figures are quite positive after many years of economic crisis and slowdown. In fact, 2014 has been the best year since 2007, when the Catalan economy grew by 3.2% according to the Idescat. The final figure for 2014 is higher than the provisional 1.2% growth rate previously announced. Following European Union instructions, the calculations for last year include R&D activities, as well as prostitution and trafficking of drugs and tobacco.

Catalonia exported €56.87 billion worth of industrial products last year, which represents a 3.5% increase on 2013’s figures, according to data released on Wednesday by the Catalan Statistics Institute (Idescat). The exports of high-technology products reached €5.58 billion, a 6.1% growth on figures from the previous year. These were also the type of product which experienced the greatest increase in exports during 2014, mostly thanks to sales from outside the European Union, which increased by 10.9%. Such an important boost also meant that sales outside the EU were larger than exports to other European Union Member States. The international sales of medium-high range products reached €28.27 billion, a 2.8% growth on 2013 figures.

The average price of houses and flats in Catalonia was 2.2% higher at the end of 2014 than at the end of the previous year, according to the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). At Spanish level, housing prices increased by 1.8% in 2014. It is the first time since 2007 that housing prices have increased both in Catalonia and Spain as a whole. In quarterly terms, the price of flats and houses in Catalonia increased by 0.6% between the end of September and end of December. At Spanish level, they increased by 0.2% in the same period. The recovery of the real estate market is a particularly strong indicator of the economic recovery in Catalonia and Spain, especially taking into account the collapse of the construction sector during the years of economic crisis.

At the end of February 2015, there were 581,124 people registered with the Catalan Public Employment Service (SOC) as being unemployed, according to figures released on Tuesday by the Spanish Ministry of Employment and Social Security. This represents 1,645 fewer jobseekers than were registered at the end of January (582,769), a 0.28% drop. In addition, at the end of February 2015 there were 48,462 fewer registered jobseekers than a year ago, which marks the largest annual decline for registered unemployment in the last 17 years for a February month. This represents a 7.7% fall in the last 12 months. The data released on Tuesday shows an encouraging trend for Spain as a whole as well, since registered unemployment fell by 13,538 people in monthly terms, a 0.3% drop. In annual terms, the Spanish labour market posted a 6.24% drop, with 300,333 fewer registered jobseekers.

Catalan GDP grew by 1.3% in 2014 and will increase by 2.5% in 2015, claims Barcelona’s Chamber of Commerce. “The Catalan economy had a very good performance in 2014, even better than that of Spain as whole, and this acceleration will continue during 2015”, stated the President of the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce, Miquel Valls, on Wednesday. The day before, the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, announced a revised economic forecast for 2015 and stated that Spain’s economy would grow by 2.4% in 2015. Valls highlighted that all the macroeconomic indicators show positive figures for the first time in the last 7 years, which makes him think that Catalonia’s “recovery from the crisis is a fact”. The industrial sector, exports, construction and job creation are the main reasons behind those predictions, which also benefit from external factors such as the fall in oil prices.