catalan elections

Catalans are holding their municipal elections on Sunday, while the elections to the Catalan Parliament are to be held in September, as opposed to other parts of Spain, where they are voting for their regional parliaments on Sunday. These municipal elections come after 7 years of economic crisis and also with very uncertain political horizons. Two debates have dominated the campaign: Catalonia’s independence and the rise of new or secondary parties that promise to change the current model. For many people in Catalonia, Sunday’s elections will be a first stage of the ‘de facto’ plebiscite on independence that is going to take place with the Catalan elections on 27 September. It is also the opportunity to support changing the current political, economic and social model, with the rise of alternative left coalitions. Furthermore, majorities and town halls go through significant changes, particularly in Barcelona and the cities of its Metropolitan Area, where there are no clear winners forecast and surprises are likely to happen.

Jordi Sánchez, the new President of the civil society organisation Catalan National Assembly (ANC), which co-organised the massive pro-independence rallies, has ruled out the possibility of unilaterally declaring independence the day after the next Catalan Parliament elections, should a clear majority of pro-independence parties win. These elections are presented by the Catalan Government and by the parties supporting independence as a ‘de facto’ plebiscite on this issue, since it is the only option left to hold a legal self-determination vote after the unilateral veto and no-to-everything attitude of the Spanish Government during the last two-and-a-half years. However, even though Sánchez completely supports such a plebiscite, he stated that a unilateral declaration of independence on the day after “would not be possible” and “it is not the road to take”. “I will not send signals about things I believe will not happen”, added Sánchez, who on Saturday was elected to lead the ANC.

The campaign for the municipal elections in Catalonia, which are to be held on 24May, officially started this Friday in extremely uncertain circumstances after years of economic crisis, budget cuts and corruption scandals. This has seriously damaged the credibility of the main traditional parties, provoking an increase in popularity of alternative groups and a great number of undecided voters. On top of this, there is the political clash regarding Catalonia's potential independence from Spain and the planned early elections for the Catalan Parliament on 27 September, which are expected to become a 'de facto' independence plebiscite. The Municipal Elections come first and they have been presented as a preliminary vote before that in September. Additionally, alternative parties will have to prove whether they are as strong as the polls suggest and are able to be part of local government. In this uncertain scenario, the battle for Barcelona stands out, where polls predict great changes.

Ciutadans (C’s), the anti-Catalan nationalism party that could become Spain’s third-largest party according to many polls, stated on Monday that they will do everything in their power to stop the next massive pro-independence demonstration in Barcelona from happening. Since 2012, every 11^th of September (which is Catalonia’s National Day), the main pro-independence civil society associations have organised a massive rally, such as the 400 km-long human chain spanning Catalonia from north to south in 2013 and the V-shaped demonstration occupying more than 11 km of Barcelona’s two main avenues in 2014. More than 1.5 million people participated in each of the demonstrations, which have always been peaceful and cheerful, claiming Catalonia’s right to self-determination. This year, another massive demonstration is planned, which is to occupy all of Meridiana Avenue, symbolically going from the Catalan Parliament to outside the city.

"We have to fight the same evils as the Enlightenment: obscurantism, fanaticism and tyranny", stated Consuelo Madrigal, the Director of Spain's Public Prosecution office – directly appointed by the Spanish Government – when  referring to Catalonia's self-determination process on Thursday in Madrid. Madrigal also added that the Spanish institutions and "the rule of law" have also to fight against the "deviations and errors" of the Catalan self-determination process. However, despite these strong words, she nuanced her statement by stressing something which should be obvious in any democratic country: she "will not prosecute intentions" such as the road map that pro-independence parties have agreed upon. Madrigal also referred to the prosecution launched against the President of the Catalan Government, Artur Mas, for the symbolic consultation vote on independence held on 9 November last.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, has not ruled out the possibility of holding the Spanish General Elections – which should normally be held in late November or early December – at the same time as the Catalan Elections, which are to take place on 27 September. The Catalan Elections are to be transformed into a 'de facto' plebiscite on independence and have been called a year early, as the only option left in order to hold a self-determination vote, after Rajoy's total opposition to any such vote and his failing to even talk about it. During the last few weeks, the possibility of Rajoy calling the Spanish Elections early in order to ensure that they coincide with the Catalan vote (with the aim of partially neutralising the plebiscite effect) has been widely discussed. However, Rajoy also said that he would like to hold them "at the end of the year".

The Catalan Government President and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas, complained on Wednesday that his ally, the left-wing pro-independence party ERC, is not fully honouring their agreement to call elections on 27 September, which should become a 'de facto' vote on independence. According to Mas, the ERC is not offering its full parliamentary support to the Government. "There is an agreement signed in January, and it is also an agreement that talks about stability until elections are called" and "some [parliamentary] votes are being lost, which harm such a stability agreement", he said. Furthermore, he stated that elections will be "expectedly" held on 27 September and did not rule out the option of running in a cross-party list yet. The leader of the left-wing party, Oriol Junqueras, replied that the ERC is honouring the agreement and that Catalans will vote on 27 September.

The political parties and the main civil society organisations that support Catalonia's independence from Spain have agreed that the Catalan Parliament will issue a formal declaration to start building a new state and launch a constituent process, which would be put to a citizen vote at a later stage, if they obtain a parliamentary majority in the September elections. They have been holding a series of talks over the past few weeks in order to agree on a road map that sets out the steps to follow in case pro-independence parties obtain an absolute majority in the next Catalan Parliament elections. These elections have been called early and are being presented as a 'de facto' referendum on independence by the parties supporting this option, since they are the only way to hold a legal vote on this issue after years of the Spanish Government's unilateral blocking attitude.

The support for independence is at its lowest ebb of the last two years according to the latest survey from the Catalan Government’s Survey Institute (CEO), published on Friday. 48% of Catalan citizens are against independence from Spain, while 44.1% are in favour of it. The figures confirm the trend observed in the last CEO survey released in December, when the percentage of those opposing independence (45.3%) overtook those in favour (44.5%) for the first time since 2012. During the last months there have been significant quarrels among the pro-independence parties and there was already the general feeling that the movement was losing supports. This also coincides with a greater mobilisation of the 'no' side, which has focused on spreading doubt and uncertainty about the independence project, and the appearance of new parties at Spanish level that are promising to carry out great changes in the democratic and economic systems.

After months of discussions between parties and civil society organisations, the National Alliance for the Right to Self-Determination, which comprises more than 3,000 different groups, have met once again and announced a minimum consensus on the 27 September elections: citizens must participate in them "to decide" Catalonia's future. However, the Alliance avoided using the word "plebiscite", since some parties and organisations think that the next elections are not a 'de facto' referendum on independence. After the symbolic vote that took place on 9 November last, forces supporting Catalonia's self-determination process have been openly quarrelling on the next steps to follow in order to ensure a binding vote on independence. In mid-January, after reaching an agreement with the left wing pro-independence party ERC, the President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas, announced early elections for 27 September, to be transformed into a 'de facto' independence plebiscite.

The Catalan Parliament has finally approved the Catalan Government’s budget bill for 2015 and the complementary law on fiscal measures with the backing of the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU and the opposition left-wing Catalan independence party ERC. The CiU and the ERC introduced last-minute changes concerning the launching of state structures, such as Catalonia's own tax administration. These changes come after the Catalan Council for Constitutional Guarantees (CGE) warned that such state structures cannot go beyond Catalonia's current self-rule powers. The CiU and ERC want to build embryonic structures in order to develop them if a majority of citizens vote for independence in the next Catalan elections, which are to be transformed into a 'de facto' referendum. Opposition parties criticised the new budget for "consolidating" budget cuts and for developing state structures.

Spain’s Constitutional Court has ruled against the Catalan Parliament’s Law on Consultation Votes, approved in September, and the President of the Catalan Government’s Decree calling for a consultation vote on independence on 9 November last. The Constitutional Court had already temporarily suspended both legal measures in October, but it still was yet to issue its definitive verdict. After the temporary suspension, the Catalan Government promoted an alternative and symbolic vote on independence run by 40,000 volunteers, also on 9 November, in which 2.35 million people participated despite the Spanish authorities’ full opposition and even threats. The Catalan President, Artur Mas, stated that the Constitutional Court’s final decision “leaves 27 September [early elections] as the only way to consult the Catalan people” about their collective future. Meanwhile, the Spanish PM, Mariano Rajoy, highlighted that the Court’s decision “has been adopted unanimously” and that “governments have to honour laws”.

In the annual Debate on the State of the Union in the Spanish Parliament, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy repeated that he will “never” accept putting Spain’s unity in question. He said that the next Catalan Parliament elections, scheduled for 27 September, are not a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence, as pro-independence parties are claiming. However, Rajoy said he is willing to talk but only if “the law is always respected”. The Spokesperson of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida, emphasised that “not making any proposal” to address Catalonia’s claims is “political negligence”. Furthermore, he regretted that the Spanish Government is not respecting the law when it is recentralising powers and not respecting Catalonia’s self-rule. The Spokesperson for the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC, Alfred Bosch, told Rajoy that “the sooner he acknowledges” that there is an independence referendum in September, “the sooner we will find solutions”.

A day after the President of the Catalan Government and leader of the centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, Artur Mas, announced his plan to further develop the so-called state structures before the 27 September elections, the leader of the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC, Oriol Junqueras, has once again requested to be part of the Executive and sit in Cabinet. Junqueras justified his request in order “to guarantee the indispensable state structures”, such as Catalonia’s own tax administration and Social Security system. The embryonic frame of such structures should be created before the next Catalan elections, which will be called early and will be transformed into a ‘de facto’ referendum on independence from Spain. On Tuesday, Mas had already ruled out the possibility of the ERC sitting in Government and, on Wednesday, the Catalan President stressed that the current Cabinet will only be in office for the next 6 months.

The conservative Spanish nationalist People’s Party (PP), which runs the Spanish Government, has appealed against the Catalan Executive’s 2015 budget bill, which will delay its definitive approval and implementation by up to one month. The new budget was supposed to be approved this week by the Catalan Parliament, after months of negotiations between the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU and the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC. The new bill will increase social spending and also increase funds for Catalonia’s own tax administration and for the launch of a Catalan Social Security agency. The Catalan Government accused the PP of “parliamentary filibusterism” and warned them that the appeal “will not stop the [self-determination] process” nor the creation of “state structures”. However, it will damage families in need, as it will delay the implementation of new social programmes.