Catalonia could see 13,000 coronavirus deaths in worst-case scenario, says report
Study suggests number of cases will peak in late April, as health department considers "multiple scenarios"
Thirteen thousand deaths in Catalonia due to coronavirus is the worst-case scenario put forward by one health department report, with the peak in confirmed cases likely to arrive towards the end of April.
It is one of a number of "multiple scenarios" that the department is considering, with this report suggesting that if the rise in infections follows that of Italy, the number of deaths will reach 7,600 before the quarantine restrictions take effect.
Reported on Wednesday by the Vilaweb website, and confirmed by the Catalan News Agency, sources close to the study say that the number of deaths could be less if the restrictions are strictly adhered to.
Possible 121,000 cases by April 28
Dated March 24, the report foresees two long term scenarios. The first assumes that Catalonia follows the same rhythm of infections as Italy, which would lead to 121,000 confirmed cases by April 28.
The second suggests that confining people to their homes 10 days earlier than in Italy will mean that the number of infections will go up more gradually, peaking at some 70,000 cases on April 24.
Both scenarios envisaged by the report are based on following China and maintaining the restrictions until there is a significant drop in the number of new cases, which the estimates put as some time in May.
President calls for total lockdown
Catalan president, Quim Torra, made reference to the report's findings on Wednesday during a parliamentary meeting via video link in which he again argued for a total lockdown of Catalonia as the best way to fight the virus.
"The worst estimations foresee the peak of the covid-19 crisis in late April, meaning we wouldn't have normality until maybe June," said Torra, who first asked the Spanish government for a complete lockdown of Catalonia on March 13.
50,000 rapid tests to arrive on Friday
Meanwhile, the Catalan health department is expecting to get 50,000 rapid covid-19 tests on Friday, which will be used on health professionals, while the state authorities say they have reached an agreement for China to supply medical supplies worth 432 million euros.