'Yes' vote ahead in referendum poll with 64% turnout
Some 62% of Podemos voters and third of ‘No’ voters would take part in 1 October vote despite prohibition of Spanish government
Up to 64% of Catalans would vote in the 1 October referendum even if the central government bans it, says a new survey. The ‘Yes’ vote would come out on top with 42.3% of the registered vote compared to 38.9% of ‘No’ votes. The decision to go ahead with the referendum without the permission of the Spanish government has most support among pro-independence voters. However, 62% of Podem voters, 25% of Catalan socialist voters and 30% of Ciutadans’ voters also say they would take part. The results are from a survey by the Optimetre Institute for “Ara” newspaper that was published on Monday.
All parties involved in the referendum set for 1 October agree that a high turnout is key for international recognition of the result. Despite the clear opposition of the central government, 54.9% of those surveyed said they would be certain to vote, with 9.3% almost certain. The survey suggests the ‘Yes’ vote would win with a small advantage of 3.4 points, with 9.1% of voters still undecided, meaning 34.7% of ‘No’ voters would take part. According to “ARA” newspaper, this translates as 750,000 votes, a significant difference compared to the non-binding 9-N vote in 2014, when 100,000 ‘No’ voters took part.
Meanwhile, in the event that the Spanish government forbids the referendum, 46.8% of Catalans would protest, compared to the 21.4% who say they would not take any protest measures despite not agreeing with the ban, and 24.6% who would agree with the prohibition. Among those who would protest the banning of the referendum, the majority would be voters of the pro-independence parties, but also 25% of the voters who support the Catalan socialists. Moreover, 30% of Ciutadans voters would also be against a prohibition of the referendum.
As for the Spanish government’s response to the request of the Catalan government and parliament to hold the referendum on 1 October, 58.9% of registered voters think the referendum should be allowed against 16.3% who think the vote should be prevented at all costs, while 15.1% are against authorizing the referendum but do not support stopping it by force.