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49.4% of Catalans would vote for independence and 32.3% would vote against it, according to Catalan Government's poll

According to a poll by the Centre of Opinion Studies (CEO), run by the Catalan Government, 49.4% of Catalans would vote "yes" to both parts of the question "Do you want Catalonia to become a State? If yes, do you want to become an independent State?" In addition, 12.6% would vote "yes" to the first part and "no" to the second, meaning they would back a Catalan State within a federal or confederated Spain. Finally, 19.7% would vote "no", meaning they back the current 'status quo' or they want recentralisation. Therefore, 32.3% of citizens would be against independence. However, such a poll cannot be used to predict results for November 9's alternative consultation vote, stated the CEO, since the census is not the same and many people from the "no" side are expected not to vote in the alternative participatory process.

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31 October 2014 08:14 PM

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ACN

Barcelona (ACN).- According to a poll by the Centre of Opinion Studies (CEO), run by the Catalan Government, 49.4% of Catalans would vote "yes" to both parts of the question "Do you want Catalonia to become a State? If yes, do you want to become an independent State?" By answering with a double "yes" to the question citizens are backing independence from Spain. In addition, 12.6% would vote "yes" to the first part and "no" to the second, meaning they are backing a Catalan State within a federal or confederated Spain. Finally, 19.7% would vote "no", meaning back the current 'status quo' or they want recentralisation. Therefore, 32.3% of citizens would be against independence. In addition, 62% would want Catalonia to have greater self-government powers, including state structures. However, such a poll cannot be used to predict results for November 9's alternative consultation vote, stated the CEO, since the census is not the same and many people from the "no" side are expected not to vote in the alternative participatory process. Besides, if elections to the Catalan Parliament were to take place now, the left-wing Catalan independence party ERC would win them with 23.2% of the vote and between 38 and 39 parliamentary seats, ahead of the governing centre-right pro-Catalan State coalition CiU, which would get 19.4% of the votes and 32-33 seats. Parties clearly against independence would get, altogether, between 43 and 49 seats. Parties clearly backing independence would get between 46 and 48 seats without taking into account the governing CiU (32-33) and the Catalan green socialist and post-communist party ICV-EUiA (8-9). These two coalitions have parties and MPs clearly backing independence and others who are more ambiguous about it or who are against it. The absolute majority is 68 MPs. Therefore it would depend on how many of the 40-42 MPs from the CiU and ICV-EUiA combined back independence (probably a wide majority of them), to see whether there would be a pro-independence absolute majority in the Catalan Parliament or not. Alternative left party Podemos would enter the Catalan Parliament for the first time with 10-11 seats.


The CEO has asked the question agreed on among a majority of parties in December 2013 for the original consultation vote, which will also be used in November 9's alternative participatory process. However, they have not linked this question to any specific day or type of vote, only asking it in general terms and not linking it to the participatory process of November 9. 2,000 people of 18 years and above were interviewed, representing a 2.69% margin of error. Interviews took place between the 29th of September and the 23rd of October; therefore on the first day people that the Constitutional Court had already temporarily suspended the original consultation vote.

49.4% of Catalans would vote for independence

49.4% of citizens have directly answered that they would vote with a double "yes" to the question, meaning they back independence from Spain. According to the CEO's Director, Jordi Argelaguet, if this voting intention were nuanced with previous electoral results and voter profiles, the pro-independence percentage could represent between 53% and 55%. In addition, those supporting the creation of a Catalan State but being against full independence would represent 12.6% of the voters. Finally, those totally against a Catalan State, regardless of if it were independent or not, would represent 19.7%. However, Argelaguet also added that the number of those voting "no" to independence could increase if a proper referendum finally takes place with all the democratic guarantees.

The ERC would win the next Catalan elections but would not get the absolute majority

In addition, the CEO also asked about voting intention in hypothetical early elections of the Catalan Parliament. The ERC, led by Oriol Junqueras, would get 23.2% of the direct vote, which would make them obtain between 38 and 39 seats, far from the 68-seat absolute majority in the 135-seat Catalan Parliament. However, they would win elections for the first time, ahead of the governing CiU, which is led by the Catalan President, Artur Mas. The CiU would get 19.4% of the direct vote and between 32 and 33 seats, its worst result ever. Both combined, they would get the absolute majority (70-72 seats). Currently the ERC has 21 seats and the CiU, 50.

The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) would come in third place, with 11.2% of the votes and 14 or 16 seats. Currently the PSC has 20 seats. The People's Party (PP), which runs the Spanish Government, would get 8.6% of the direct votes in Catalonia, obtaining between 11 and 13 seats. Currently the PP has 19 MPs.

The most significant change from the current situation, besides the ERC overtaking the CiU, is that alternative left Podemos would enter into the Catalan Parliament for the first time, obtaining 8.5% of direct vote intention and between 10 and 11 seats. The recently-founded Podemos supports Catalonia's right to self-determination but is against independence. It is the most vocal party against corruption and is proposing to entirely rebuild Spain's political system. It was the big surprise in the last European Parliament Elections.

The 6th, 7th and 8th parties would get very similar results, with all of them obtaining between 8 and 9 MPs. The Catalan green socialist and post-communist coalition ICV-EUiA would get 7.2% of the votes. The ICV-EUiA would lose seats from the current 13 MPs. The populist and anti-Catalan nationalist party Ciutadans (C's) would obtain 7% of the votes and would get a similar number of seats (currently it has 9 MPs). Finally the alternative left and Catalan independence party would get 6.5% of the votes and would almost triple its representation, since it currently has 3 MPs.

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  • The two-part question on a ballot box ready for November 9's alternative vote (by N. Julià)

  • The two-part question on a ballot box ready for November 9's alternative vote (by N. Julià)