Covid-19 outbreak risk skyrockets in two weeks as hospitalizations see sharp rise

Catalonia is in the midst of a new wave of the pandemic, with a further 3,286 Covid-19 cases reported on Sunday. 

This brings last week’s total new case count up to 25,838, more than what was seen in the entire month previously. 

The outbreak risk has skyrocketed in the past fortnight, going from 79 - considered a ‘moderate’ risk - on June 18, up to 679 in the latest update. 

For this indicator, above 100 is considered ‘high’ risk and authorities consider anything above 200 as ‘very high’ risk. It is calculated using an iEPG index - found by multiplying the average spread of the virus over the past seven days by the cumulative incidence over the past two weeks. 

The transmission rate too has risen to 2.50, up from 2.07 seen on Saturday, whereas the figure was below 1 as recently as June 20. 

The huge spike in cases over the past week had not significantly affected indicators in hospitals, but the latest update on Sunday has begun to change that picture.

A further 49 people were hospitalized with the virus, with the total number jumping from 473 to 522. However, this is still far below levels seen during the past months, when over 1,000 people needed medical care for Covid-19 in the first half of May, and the figure has, overall, been on a steady decline for months. 

Additionally, the number of people in intensive care units is remaining stable, with 123 patients currently in ICUs - up by three patients since the last count. 

In the long-term, the state of this key pandemic indicator is also improving, with a steady decline in the count being seen ever since January, barring a brief uptick around Easter. 

Vaccination

As of July 3, 2021, a total of 4,290,340 residents have been given the first dose of the vaccine, 54.6% of the total population. Out of those, 2,783,466 have also been administered a second dose (35.5% of the total population). 

3,092,473 residents are considered to be fully immunized (39.4%). Under 65s who have already had the virus are only required to have the first dose, and others have received a single-dose jab. Therefore, the % of two doses administered and % fully immunized do not match.

Number of people diagnosed per day 

Hospitalized patients and ICU patients from July 29

Number of confirmed and suspected Covid-19 deaths per day (at hospitals until May 19, also other health centers from May 20, also elsewhere since August 5)

Outbreak risk (over 100 is high) and transmission rate (over 1 concerns authorities)

Number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants in last 14 days

Percentage of population vaccinated